Absolute-Comprehension — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$120

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

43.9%

Resolved (30d)

601

Trades (30d)

4,410

18,785 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$16.2K

$62.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-24

last 10-29 13:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 50% -$1,552

Other

1% 56% -$31

Politics

0% 0% -$3

Sports

0% 33% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 1594 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	—	+7	$5	100¢	$7	+$2	10-29 14:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 02:45 UTC	79	$253	278	257	+21	Down	-$11	08-20 02:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 06:00 UTC	78	$236	265	265	+0	Down	+$11	08-20 06:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-19 13:45 UTC	71	$203	221	210	+11	Down	+$6	08-19 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	47	$202	441	0	+441	Down	+$24	10-16 02:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 05:00 UTC	59	$196	247	239	+8	Down	+$11	08-20 05:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 12:15 UTC	71	$195	215	210	+5	Up	+$10	08-20 12:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	41	$169	410	0	+410	Down	+$76	10-15 09:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 14:00 UTC	51	$163	196	186	+10	Up	-$1	08-17 14:13
cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by march 31	128	$159	1,926	1,906	+19	No	-$30	03-17 07:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	45	$159	332	0	+332	Down	-$8	10-15 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	37	$155	298	0	+298	Up	+$2	10-15 23:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 03:45 UTC	54	$155	180	167	+13	Up	+$2	08-20 03:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 11:15 UTC	52	$153	170	156	+14	Down	-$5	08-20 11:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	36	$148	352	0	+352	Down	+$68	10-15 21:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 09:15 UTC	46	$147	183	170	+14	Down	-$4	08-20 09:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-19 14:30 UTC	42	$146	177	161	+16	Up	+$3	08-19 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	40	$145	309	0	+309	Down	-$13	10-15 19:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 09:00 UTC	39	$145	353	0	+353	Up	+$6	10-15 09:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 04:15 UTC	47	$143	162	162	+0	Up	+$2	08-20 04:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 08:15 UTC	40	$141	149	143	+6	Up	-$7	08-20 08:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC	34	$139	284	0	+284	Down	-$18	10-15 08:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 23:30 UTC	44	$138	282	0	+282	Up	+$9	10-14 23:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 12:30 UTC	47	$136	154	141	+13	Down	-$4	08-20 12:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-19 12:15 UTC	37	$135	162	148	+14	Down	+$4	08-19 12:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	34	$134	330	0	+330	Up	+$56	10-15 20:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-15 00:15 UTC	37	$129	282	0	+282	Down	-$10	10-15 00:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 13:45 UTC	53	$125	152	130	+22	Down	-$3	08-17 13:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-27 12:00 UTC	52	$123	166	164	+2	Up	+$11	08-27 12:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	8	$118	151	151	+0	Yes	-$3	04-26 08:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 01:30 UTC	45	$114	137	134	+3	Down	+$1	08-21 01:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 14:31:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xd73084…
10-29 14:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0xf7e95f…
10-29 14:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xa232b8…
10-29 14:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x918e59…
10-29 14:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x4183c1…
10-29 14:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0x046dbe…
10-29 14:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$4	0xccee03…
10-29 14:12:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xf2f8de…
10-29 14:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x7ecdec…
10-29 14:11:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x09b8cc…
10-29 14:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x986c4c…
10-29 14:10:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0xffcbca…
10-29 13:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x624602…
10-29 13:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xa28b92…
10-29 13:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0x3a531b…
10-29 13:25:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x8fc4c1…
10-29 13:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xdb04a1…
10-29 13:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x593f57…
10-29 13:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xf1cea8…
10-29 13:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$0	0x234e73…
10-29 13:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	41	8¢	$3	0xd58a38…
10-29 13:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x52563b…
10-29 13:03:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x73fb93…
10-29 13:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xcdbeee…
10-29 12:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x37fbbb…
10-29 12:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9e4dbb…
10-29 12:43:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0xd6aab0…
10-29 12:43:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xa8090c…
10-29 12:43:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x71d50d…
10-29 12:43:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x9fda05…
10-29 12:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x126661…
10-29 12:42:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x72e841…
10-29 12:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x2cc41e…
10-29 12:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x3f7831…
10-29 12:40:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xc2f36b…
10-29 12:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0xa45137…
10-29 12:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x74144d…
10-29 12:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	21¢	$3	0xde32a4…
10-29 12:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x6bd449…
10-29 12:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x3680ab…
10-29 12:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	44¢	$0	0xe70871…
10-29 12:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xcfb811…
10-29 12:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x02f34b…
10-29 12:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xddcf70…
10-29 12:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x9165df…
10-29 12:26:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	34¢	$5	0xea4a82…
10-29 12:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x4d46c0…
10-29 12:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x9fcc3d…
10-29 12:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	39¢	$3	0x8dff6a…
10-29 12:23:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x984fbb…
10-29 12:23:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x7be40d…
10-29 12:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x24d0ec…
10-29 12:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd68340…
10-29 12:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xad7985…
10-29 12:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8bd87e…
10-29 12:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	39	11¢	$4	0x6d232c…
10-29 12:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x967e39…
10-29 12:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	27¢	$0	0x0aa615…
10-29 12:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x5830ef…
10-29 12:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf4455b…
10-29 12:07:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0xf79f55…
10-29 12:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xca3be7…
10-29 12:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0x584bca…
10-29 12:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xd92b52…
10-29 12:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xc5c93d…
10-29 12:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0x386733…
10-29 11:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x841fea…
10-29 11:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x1d4953…
10-29 11:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0xde4e9c…
10-29 11:55:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x931b67…
10-29 11:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x2c3240…
10-29 11:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0xc05476…
10-29 11:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0xdbf778…
10-29 11:49:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xaef37b…
10-29 11:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0xaea07b…
10-29 11:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x0a8f4b…
10-29 11:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x6d210d…
10-29 11:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xadda64…
10-29 11:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	61¢	$0	0x1e8f35…
10-29 11:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x4135c4…
10-29 11:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xd76ace…
10-29 11:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x270e12…
10-29 11:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xb9b9f0…
10-29 11:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x90c068…
10-29 11:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xd1d9d4…
10-29 11:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0xedd471…
10-29 11:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xbddfb4…
10-29 11:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x082166…
10-29 11:31:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	50¢	$3	0x213b49…
10-29 11:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x22cc7c…
10-29 11:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1cadd7…
10-29 11:27:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	41¢	$1	0xa7b9b4…
10-29 11:27:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	41¢	$4	0x59ae9f…
10-29 11:26:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xc2feb4…
10-29 11:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x5949c2…
10-29 11:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xf3f35a…
10-29 11:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x6e415e…
10-29 11:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xbd181f…
10-29 11:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x3710b8…
10-29 11:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xed247e…