Loose-Patriarch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

76.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-21

last 06-28 09:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

56% — —

Other

41% — —

Crypto

3% 71% $-4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes		+100	$10	8¢	$8	$-2	06-07 22:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	5	$1.0K	547	547	+0	open	—	05-31 20:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$582	614	0	+614	open	—	05-14 13:43
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	3	$561	326	326	+0	open	—	05-26 00:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$497	559	559	+0	open	—	06-28 09:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$425	257	257	+0	open	—	04-03 21:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$215	127	127	+0	open	—	05-12 22:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$204	106	106	+0	open	—	05-23 21:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$204	105	105	+0	open	—	05-23 21:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$202	104	104	+0	open	—	05-23 21:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	05-18 07:47
houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	2	$188	303	303	+0	open	—	04-02 22:10
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$163	175	175	+0	open	—	06-13 20:58
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	3	$152	200	0	+200	open	—	04-05 13:23
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$148	111	111	+0	open	—	06-01 16:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	05-12 23:53
will trump say obliterated or obliteration during address to the nation	1	$100	119	0	+119	open	—	04-01 09:57
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	1	$100	103	0	+103	open	—	04-26 22:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	05-12 23:53
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	2	$74	46	46	+0	open	—	05-17 08:40
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	2	$67	48	48	+0	open	—	05-19 09:06
will the us invade iran by march 31	1	$50	60	0	+60	open	—	03-23 09:17
taliban blackmail of dc shooter confirmed by march 31	1	$35	36	0	+36	open	—	03-24 22:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$20	13	13	+0	open	—	03-23 08:53
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	03-24 22:37
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	1	$10	100	0	+100	open	—	06-07 22:23
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	05-31 21:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	05-09 18:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	$-5	05-09 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Down	+$1	05-09 22:23
btc updown 5m 1776632100	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	04-19 21:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 09:23:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	559	35¢	$197	0xe95726…
06-26 11:29:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	351	57¢	$200	0xa60d3c…
06-25 22:43:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xed9b8f…
06-13 20:58:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	175	36¢	$63	0xba9ce5…
06-11 20:34:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0x8d3f04…
06-07 22:23:31	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x79e125…
06-01 16:06:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	111	43¢	$48	0x4d5aa7…
05-31 21:01:08	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xff1313…
05-31 20:43:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	547	100¢	$545	0x576db5…
05-31 20:40:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xf06174…
05-29 04:53:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	219	91¢	$200	0xa96d34…
05-26 00:00:18	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	326	80¢	$261	0x30bb79…
05-24 18:14:12	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x93320e…
05-23 22:17:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	116	87¢	$100	0x5369af…
05-23 21:40:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	104	98¢	$102	0x99fc81…
05-23 21:39:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0x6e1dd3…
05-23 21:39:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	106	98¢	$104	0x3153bd…
05-22 23:13:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x2cee9f…
05-19 17:33:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xaccb3f…
05-19 09:06:24	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	48	77¢	$37	0xde515b…
05-18 07:47:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x685019…
05-17 20:35:20	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x7a59c4…
05-17 08:40:28	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	Yes	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x8453cf…
05-16 21:33:50	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x679c59…
05-16 21:22:32	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x1e4254…
05-16 21:11:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xc34a82…
05-16 20:58:57	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x465d4d…
05-16 20:44:41	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x530773…
05-14 13:43:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	501	96¢	$482	0x8057a0…
05-14 12:08:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xe2fed6…
05-14 00:13:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xacbd94…
05-12 23:53:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd1a26d…
05-12 23:53:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xb952f1…
05-12 22:17:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	127	91¢	$115	0x2eb6bc…
05-10 09:26:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x656142…
05-09 22:43:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xcd491f…
05-09 22:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x00094c…
05-09 22:23:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xe8e905…
05-09 18:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xcad27d…
05-09 17:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf3f48c…
05-09 17:10:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc283cf…
05-07 18:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x1bad3a…
05-07 18:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xb3620c…
04-30 23:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbec6d1…
04-30 21:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x355913…
04-30 21:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xbecfb1…
04-26 22:04:06	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	Yes	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x4073d7…
04-20 20:21:44	btc updown 5m 1776716400	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1eefce…
04-19 21:16:10	btc updown 5m 1776633300	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x294b0d…
04-19 21:08:50	btc updown 5m 1776632700	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x999335…
04-19 21:01:32	btc updown 5m 1776632100	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8ad37a…
04-19 20:56:32	btc updown 5m 1776632100	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x1bb233…
04-05 13:23:29	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	90	76¢	$68	0x6313fc…
04-05 11:01:55	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x1d8800…
04-05 11:00:15	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x76d4ed…
04-03 21:27:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	227	90¢	$205	0x684e4f…
04-02 22:16:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0x7b26c9…
04-02 22:10:05	houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	303	29¢	$88	0x925630…
04-02 20:54:17	houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0xa14eee…
04-01 09:57:01	will trump say obliterated or obliteration during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x3ba1b3…
03-24 22:40:33	taliban blackmail of dc shooter confirmed by march 31	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x0f63a1…
03-24 22:37:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xd876dc…
03-23 09:17:51	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xcc5a72…
03-23 08:56:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	29	35¢	$10	0xf82666…
03-23 08:53:55	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xe6ac1c…
03-22 23:28:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x763488…
03-21 11:04:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x1fbf81…