Tough-Cinder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$36

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.7%

Resolved

104

Trades

118

lifetime

Volume

$1.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 05-23 20:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Politics

66% 100% +$258

Other

25% 67% -$55

Crypto

10% 14% -$167

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-23).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$1.3K	922	922	+0	Yes	+$258	04-04 14:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$100	189	0	+189	Down	-$100	05-03 19:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	3	$27	81	0	+81	Down	-$27	05-03 18:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$25	73	0	+73	Down	-$25	05-03 19:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 00:45 UTC	1	$15	28	0	+28	Up	-$15	02-10 00:49
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 6?	3	$15	17	0	+17	No	+$2	05-06 09:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 00:30 UTC	1	$9	19	0	+19	Down	+$10	02-10 00:40
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 26?	2	$7	29	29	+0	Yes	-$3	04-26 19:13
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on May 19?	2	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	-$5	05-19 22:27
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 23?	1	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	-$5	05-23 04:00
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 26?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	-$5	04-26 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	-$5	05-03 18:36
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?	2	$5	9	0	+9	Yes	-$5	05-23 15:01
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	-$5	05-16 02:06
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 27?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	04-27 21:03
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 26?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	04-26 12:48
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 19?	1	$5	8	0	+8	No	+$3	05-19 22:54
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 13?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	05-13 12:55
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 21?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	05-21 04:00
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23?	1	$5	8	0	+8	Yes	-$5	05-23 05:06
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 26?	1	$5	11	0	+11	Yes	-$5	04-26 03:53
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 21?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	05-21 22:56
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 2?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	-$5	05-02 21:02
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 20?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	05-20 19:16
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 22?	1	$5	14	0	+14	Yes	-$5	05-22 19:58
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?	1	$5	9	0	+9	No	+$4	05-15 21:43
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 30?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	04-30 13:03
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on May 6?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	-$5	05-06 18:50
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 28?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	04-28 10:19
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?	3	$5	28	0	+28	Yes	-$5	05-01 15:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 20:01:40	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 23?	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xc9273f…
05-23 15:01:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?	No	BUY	1	55¢	$1	0xefbe73…
05-23 14:59:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?	No	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xd39bd8…
05-23 14:30:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 23?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x4652ea…
05-23 14:30:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 23?	No	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0x23cea4…
05-23 05:06:27	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x703477…
05-23 04:00:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 23?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5b7f30…
05-23 03:51:17	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xbe7190…
05-22 19:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 22?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xcac1b7…
05-22 13:36:56	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 22?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xae77d7…
05-22 05:06:15	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 22?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xa7f54f…
05-21 23:56:22	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 21?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9710cd…
05-21 22:56:32	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 21?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xc40384…
05-21 22:56:32	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 21?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x3c075d…
05-21 04:00:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 21?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x65b787…
05-21 04:00:04	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 21?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x029d5a…
05-20 22:55:56	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 20?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xe5eb29…
05-20 22:55:56	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 20?	No	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0xd2b269…
05-20 21:41:44	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 20?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x9907a3…
05-20 19:16:00	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 20?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x21d617…
05-20 17:30:56	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xaf2f4d…
05-20 17:26:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3a6376…
05-20 16:55:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on May 20?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x6590de…
05-20 01:22:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 20?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xbcadc9…
05-20 00:00:11	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on May 19?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xf19614…
05-19 22:54:31	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 19?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x7dfb0f…
05-19 22:27:31	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on May 19?	No	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x21c19d…
05-19 22:19:21	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on May 19?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xa03a22…
05-18 01:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5419ed…
05-17 23:23:11	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd5190c…
05-17 22:09:41	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x882d15…
05-17 18:18:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 17?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xb344e3…
05-17 03:36:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x93272e…
05-16 21:26:06	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 16?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd65172…
05-16 04:09:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16?	No	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x22d9f3…
05-16 02:06:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x0d947d…
05-15 21:43:44	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 15?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb71809…
05-15 21:43:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x1e8eef…
05-14 21:36:36	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?	No	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x347977…
05-13 12:55:40	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 13?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x4d575f…
05-13 02:35:03	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x823f54…
05-13 02:14:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe9dec7…
05-12 22:55:47	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 12?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x818b0d…
05-12 21:26:37	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 12?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x85bb09…
05-12 20:06:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 12?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x3d7b05…
05-12 07:35:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe9b5f6…
05-11 21:43:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 11?	Yes	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0xabec18…
05-11 04:00:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 11?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x3dbf14…
05-09 22:00:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 10?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xc5685b…
05-09 11:10:46	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 9?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1e52b4…
05-08 16:06:02	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9?	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0x8fa808…
05-08 16:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x8aaf90…
05-08 16:00:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 9?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xbc99d0…
05-08 04:50:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 8?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf2cf88…
05-07 19:06:47	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 7?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xc0b918…
05-07 04:26:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 7?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x27ef67…
05-07 01:35:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 7?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x88cd65…
05-06 18:50:01	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on May 6?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xf03cdd…
05-06 09:22:44	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 6?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xf566f0…
05-06 09:22:44	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 6?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x3f0b7e…
05-06 04:50:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 6?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xec10fc…
05-05 16:49:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 5?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc104ab…
05-05 04:02:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 5?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xadb885…
05-04 04:58:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 4?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xc7c0e1…
05-03 20:34:50	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 3?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x654052…
05-03 19:17:06	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 3?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x2757ac…
05-03 19:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0x490dd5…
05-03 19:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	73	34¢	$25	0xab1b45…
05-03 18:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xba0666…
05-03 18:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x903612…
05-03 18:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	71	34¢	$24	0x66b130…
05-03 18:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x409a30…
05-03 05:32:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 3?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xccb7b3…
05-03 04:29:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 3?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd5f59a…
05-03 00:50:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 3?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x06c3c7…
05-02 21:02:46	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 2?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x2449da…
05-02 20:03:10	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 2?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xec2c72…
05-02 19:59:36	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 2?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0xa81101…
05-02 19:59:36	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on May 2?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x8781d6…
05-02 19:45:36	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 2?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x1e2f88…
05-02 19:45:04	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 2?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbc6cb6…
05-01 15:20:24	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xe3f17b…
05-01 13:38:16	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?	No	BUY	14	18¢	$3	0x98e637…
05-01 13:37:00	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 1?	No	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xe98488…
05-01 12:59:40	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 1?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xec717f…
05-01 05:18:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 1?	No	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xd72966…
05-01 01:59:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x53abd2…
05-01 01:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1?	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x719e18…
04-30 13:03:30	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 30?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x3c509a…
04-30 03:41:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xb31093…
04-29 05:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x983409…
04-29 05:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 29?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x389f76…
04-29 01:54:18	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 29?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x1fc27e…
04-28 22:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on April 28?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$4	0x4b2fc7…
04-28 22:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 28?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xaf0ede…
04-28 19:26:24	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 28?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xc8e186…
04-28 10:19:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 28?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x44c143…
04-28 02:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xa254be…
04-27 21:03:50	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 27?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xfe3937…
04-27 16:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x37e1f1…