Distorted-Jodhpurs — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.38K

Unrealized P&L

+$63

Hit rate

28.3%

Resolved

Trades

191

lifetime

Volume

$14.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

$163

1 position

First seen

2026-02-17

last 10-08 11:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

45% 31% -$513

Politics

26% 50% -$790

Sports

23% 39% +$63

Tech

3% 100% +$31

Crypto

2% 50% -$83

Pop-Culture

2% 0% -$90

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes		+465	$100	35¢	$163	+$63	10-08 11:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	4	$1.4K	1,039	1,039	-0	Yes	-$10	04-02 08:07
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	4	$1.2K	1,411	1,411	+0	Yes	-$35	05-19 09:16
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	4	$1.1K	687	687	+0	Yes	+$95	05-26 04:58
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$749	377	377	+0	Yes	$0	04-07 00:03
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$732	435	435	+0	No	+$132	04-21 10:41
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	8	$592	487	487	+0	Yes	-$3	03-31 11:56
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	2	$512	480	480	+0	No	-$88	06-02 00:01
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	2	$508	443	443	+0	No	-$92	06-01 07:04
will annual inflation increase by 2pt6 in march 241	2	$507	256	256	+0	No	-$3	04-10 00:38
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	6	$488	1,178	1,178	+0	No	-$44	04-28 17:20
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$427	250	250	+0	Yes	+$28	05-18 14:13
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	2	$394	286	286	+0	Knicks	-$6	05-19 17:22
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$389	7,751	0	+7,751	No	-$389	04-07 18:30
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	4	$329	956	956	+0	No	-$23	04-28 17:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$326	219	219	+0	Yes	+$90	04-21 10:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$301	310	310	+0	Yes	-$299	04-08 09:06
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	2	$291	203	200	+3	No	-$6	04-22 04:48
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	4	$276	963	963	+0	No	-$76	04-28 17:20
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	3	$230	195	195	+0	No	-$90	05-22 00:03
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	2	$198	139	139	+0	Yes	-$2	04-24 14:42
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	2	$186	149	149	+0	No	-$16	06-02 00:01
will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 24	2	$166	97	96	+1	Yes	+$1	04-24 14:43
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	2	$166	379	379	+0	Yes	+$14	04-28 17:20
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$156	94	94	+0	No	-$1	04-12 01:06
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$150	185	0	+185	No	+$35	05-15 20:21
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$150	190	0	+190	No	-$150	05-14 06:47
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	2	$130	79	79	+0	No	-$2	05-16 00:01
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	6	$129	151	94	+57	No	-$64	05-24 14:21
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	1	$100	465	0	+465	open	—	10-08 11:53
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	2	$95	1,923	1,923	+0	No	-$85	04-25 06:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 11:53:14	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	465	22¢	$100	0xf7e013…
09-06 00:04:06	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	SELL	36	82¢	$29	0x18d0ae…
09-05 23:24:07	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x064898…
06-21 00:01:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x8d462a…
06-20 21:29:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	215	6¢	$14	0xb6f3c7…
06-20 19:27:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	215	14¢	$30	0xdada4d…
06-14 22:22:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	29	76¢	$22	0x97c45e…
06-07 19:28:07	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x2da734…
06-02 01:35:52	Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	1¢	$1	0xb94ee4…
06-02 00:01:08	Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	480	44¢	$212	0xa269f5…
06-02 00:01:08	Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	149	57¢	$85	0x98bcef…
06-01 22:21:09	Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	149	68¢	$101	0xf8eaba…
06-01 20:41:49	Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	480	63¢	$300	0xb2b3ca…
06-01 07:04:00	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	443	47¢	$208	0x984115…
05-31 22:02:42	Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	69	7¢	$5	0x8c521b…
05-31 21:23:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xa260fe…
05-31 00:03:56	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x0c9e0b…
05-30 22:23:59	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xcd0f0e…
05-30 22:23:57	Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	69	78¢	$54	0x5ca5ad…
05-30 19:23:56	Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	443	68¢	$300	0xa13ace…
05-29 02:41:55	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xbf3851…
05-29 02:41:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xd061d9…
05-29 02:41:54	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x3be920…
05-28 05:41:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xf3dade…
05-28 05:41:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0xbaa9ec…
05-28 05:41:45	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x6c69b4…
05-28 05:41:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x5605cc…
05-28 05:41:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x4acd80…
05-27 05:36:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xfbd18b…
05-27 05:36:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xf4e0b7…
05-26 04:58:36	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	380	100¢	$379	0x06d60f…
05-24 21:17:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x04105e…
05-24 14:21:51	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x6ac078…
05-24 14:21:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x64a687…
05-23 21:17:21	Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	No	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0x5848b2…
05-23 21:17:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xdb0ed0…
05-23 00:05:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	94	5¢	$4	0x58fcce…
05-22 21:17:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x58633b…
05-22 00:03:34	Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	No	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x39c551…
05-21 22:17:45	Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	No	SELL	195	36¢	$70	0x614996…
05-21 19:21:16	Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k?	No	BUY	195	82¢	$160	0x75eedc…
05-21 11:41:43	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0xf1bf81…
05-21 11:41:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x3cf229…
05-21 11:41:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x0c3cde…
05-21 11:41:23	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0xf827b3…
05-21 11:41:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x0f2ed0…
05-21 09:44:36	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	380	79¢	$300	0xe36868…
05-19 17:22:54	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	SELL	286	68¢	$194	0x49fd9a…
05-19 14:47:19	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	286	70¢	$200	0x62123a…
05-19 09:16:31	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	SELL	706	40¢	$282	0x69e710…
05-19 09:11:28	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	SELL	705	40¢	$282	0xe6c68a…
05-18 15:28:29	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	BUY	705	43¢	$300	0x9312fb…
05-18 15:23:30	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	BUY	706	42¢	$300	0xe12fe0…
05-18 14:13:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	91¢	$227	0xf49d1d…
05-18 14:13:49	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	308	70¢	$215	0x657c56…
05-18 09:30:21	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0xedf9ac…
05-16 00:01:43	Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	No	SELL	79	80¢	$64	0x84e249…
05-15 22:21:44	Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	No	BUY	79	83¢	$66	0x633cc4…
05-15 20:21:44	Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	185	81¢	$150	0x72bff6…
05-15 07:41:55	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x98c80e…
05-14 15:42:48	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0xbd5b04…
05-14 15:24:45	Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	81	87¢	$70	0x00255a…
05-14 06:47:43	Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	79¢	$150	0x8d5c4b…
05-13 05:13:59	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	308	65¢	$200	0xc5171c…
05-10 18:18:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x4c8c77…
05-08 04:20:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	833	3¢	$24	0xfb6ead…
05-08 04:18:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	3¢	$25	0x0bdeb4…
05-07 06:13:01	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	518	5¢	$24	0x1203e9…
05-07 06:11:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	518	5¢	$25	0x3ffaac…
05-04 00:03:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	385	1¢	$3	0x0396e6…
05-03 07:02:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	1¢	$5	0x7ab8c1…
04-28 17:20:26	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	SELL	307	14¢	$43	0xea0ceb…
04-28 17:20:24	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?	Yes	SELL	227	4¢	$8	0x08210b…
04-28 17:20:22	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	267	4¢	$10	0x82a35c…
04-28 17:20:18	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$10	0xa071b4…
04-28 17:20:16	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	500	10¢	$51	0x00945f…
04-28 17:20:12	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	SELL	413	22¢	$89	0x889a5e…
04-28 17:20:04	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	379	24¢	$90	0xa35263…
04-26 14:02:28	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	267	7¢	$18	0xc2eb26…
04-26 14:02:28	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?	Yes	BUY	227	8¢	$18	0x7e6960…
04-25 06:05:12	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	1,923	0¢	$5	0x921556…
04-25 04:52:42	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	413	18¢	$76	0xc2debc…
04-25 04:52:42	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$76	0x93e498…
04-25 04:52:42	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	379	20¢	$76	0x28b885…
04-25 04:52:40	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	BUY	307	25¢	$76	0x386678…
04-25 04:52:40	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	500	15¢	$76	0x3058dd…
04-25 04:48:40	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	SELL	425	20¢	$84	0xc8bcb3…
04-25 04:45:24	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	1,923	5¢	$90	0xc482b1…
04-25 04:45:24	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	BUY	425	21¢	$90	0x1aab37…
04-24 20:23:10	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	SELL	543	12¢	$64	0x12f532…
04-24 20:23:08	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	SELL	445	21¢	$95	0x62e4ab…
04-24 20:23:06	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	463	11¢	$49	0x9e58a1…
04-24 14:43:28	will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 24	Yes	SELL	96	87¢	$83	0x6a3f06…
04-24 14:42:52	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	139	70¢	$98	0xea516c…
04-24 12:59:46	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 24	Yes	BUY	11,591	1¢	$83	0x76070d…
04-24 12:59:44	will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 24	Yes	BUY	97	86¢	$83	0xd42f1d…
04-24 12:59:44	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Yes	BUY	445	22¢	$100	0x73409e…
04-24 12:59:44	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	543	18¢	$100	0x4c4a2c…
04-24 12:59:44	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x36b262…
04-24 12:59:42	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	463	22¢	$100	0x813411…