Insubstantial-Pudding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$958

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved

663

Trades

1,529

lifetime

Volume

$33.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-16 13:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Other

77% 46% -$547

Politics

11% 72% -$6

Crypto

10% 49% -$470

Sports

1% 75% +$14

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$35

Tech

0% 100% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	11	$772	700	700	+0	No	+$278	05-12 07:14
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	7	$734	400	400	+0	No	+$62	05-10 13:47
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	9	$480	700	700	+0	Yes	-$206	05-12 07:54
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% in April?	3	$463	254	254	+0	No	-$4	04-29 14:14
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$354	400	0	+400	No	+$46	05-12 15:34
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	3	$354	250	250	+0	No	-$35	05-29 10:30
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	3	$347	400	100	+300	Yes	+$99	05-26 13:06
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	8	$279	674	0	+674	No	-$279	05-15 07:34
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 340 359	3	$263	274	130	+145	No	-$137	03-20 13:03
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	1	$258	300	0	+300	Yes	+$42	05-27 03:47
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$255	300	0	+300	No	+$45	05-13 07:20
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	2	$246	126	126	+0	No	+$5	01-29 09:39
will turnout in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary elections be between 60 and 65	2	$245	145	145	+0	No	+$45	03-27 06:08
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	8	$241	674	474	+200	No	-$180	05-16 01:40
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	2	$241	142	142	+0	No	+$41	03-04 14:41
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 540 559	2	$238	133	133	+0	Yes	-$10	01-12 08:02
will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	2	$236	137	137	+0	No	+$36	03-27 06:08
hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	2	$233	190	184	+6	Yes	+$136	04-14 07:20
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$232	200	200	+0	No	+$4	05-05 09:36
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	6	$231	296	0	+296	No	-$231	04-30 01:26
will franois piquemal be the next mayor of toulouse following the 2026 toulouse municipal election	2	$230	134	134	+0	No	+$30	03-27 06:08
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	3	$226	300	0	+300	Yes	+$74	05-25 02:23
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 13 221 752 344	2	$222	143	143	+0	No	+$22	03-13 15:08
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	2	$220	400	0	+400	No	+$180	04-24 09:15
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$216	300	0	+300	No	+$84	05-14 15:21
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 90 114	3	$214	334	195	+139	Yes	+$53	04-04 11:19
us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	2	$214	119	119	+0	Yes	+$14	04-09 16:28
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	2	$210	500	500	+0	No	-$15	05-15 17:47
will 28 years later bone temple opening weekend box office be greater than 21m	2	$203	104	104	+0	No	+$3	01-20 01:46
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	2	$202	200	200	+0	No	+$83	05-05 13:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 13:55:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xf842a4…
09-16 12:58:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xd575c9…
06-16 14:49:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x902c25…
06-02 07:14:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x43e35d…
06-02 07:11:08	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0x594679…
06-01 17:12:57	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xd0a7ea…
06-01 17:12:36	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x06b80a…
06-01 07:39:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xaaca7c…
05-30 16:59:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x2a8fd9…
05-30 16:58:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	49	28¢	$14	0x3044c0…
05-30 16:57:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x6ea587…
05-30 16:53:33	Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xb37af2…
05-30 16:53:26	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xdb0bfa…
05-30 09:38:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xcd70f6…
05-30 08:46:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xd0667a…
05-29 10:30:15	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	64¢	$159	0x36360a…
05-29 09:02:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	70	47¢	$33	0x7fb717…
05-29 04:58:08	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 29?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb30807…
05-29 01:13:00	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0xd45549…
05-28 23:59:58	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xecc8a0…
05-28 23:57:43	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29?	Yes	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0x54619b…
05-28 00:13:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 29?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xc37fde…
05-28 00:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x39ecec…
05-27 03:47:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	86¢	$258	0xdb3576…
05-27 03:46:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0xdc0c4a…
05-27 01:06:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x15277d…
05-26 13:06:14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	32¢	$96	0x227831…
05-26 13:06:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	66¢	$198	0x81f26f…
05-26 07:15:06	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	73¢	$73	0xf01821…
05-26 00:19:58	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xa8de3b…
05-25 05:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x29ee3b…
05-25 02:23:12	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x7619a8…
05-25 02:22:44	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xbee0c6…
05-25 00:44:15	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x48a504…
05-24 00:03:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xbbcf15…
05-24 00:03:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?	Yes	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0xdb06a8…
05-24 00:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x78e193…
05-24 00:02:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?	Yes	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0x985fa6…
05-22 23:29:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x4129c6…
05-22 23:29:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xd5dcbf…
05-22 23:29:13	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x13d316…
05-22 06:03:20	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xbc4a30…
05-21 17:10:16	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x1f3b4d…
05-21 17:09:43	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	38¢	$35	0xbe884f…
05-21 17:09:10	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xa02449…
05-21 17:09:08	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xab5fd1…
05-21 09:35:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22?	Yes	BUY	14	24¢	$3	0x762260…
05-21 09:35:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22?	Yes	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0x47b453…
05-21 09:35:23	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x0c8721…
05-21 09:25:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22?	Yes	BUY	19	24¢	$5	0x1f615c…
05-21 09:22:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22?	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x79c5e4…
05-21 09:21:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x865d0d…
05-21 01:24:27	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x931e5a…
05-20 23:49:52	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	99	16¢	$16	0x986488…
05-20 23:48:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x597552…
05-20 02:29:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xcbc06e…
05-18 23:53:29	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x788d90…
05-18 23:53:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	32¢	$65	0x194584…
05-18 11:15:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xf9f49a…
05-18 11:14:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x75fa22…
05-18 11:14:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0x3faa7b…
05-18 11:14:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x1791c7…
05-17 22:26:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x88221d…
05-17 16:12:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x02f504…
05-17 16:12:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0x6078a8…
05-17 10:33:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	32¢	$64	0x250167…
05-17 10:33:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0x40734d…
05-17 08:55:08	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xa2cdd7…
05-17 01:22:16	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xb7bd1a…
05-17 00:52:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0xadae4b…
05-17 00:52:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xf5fd76…
05-17 00:52:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0xd18c4e…
05-17 00:51:59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0xdecf14…
05-17 00:26:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0xa1a5fc…
05-17 00:26:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x2c76e1…
05-17 00:24:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x9a205f…
05-17 00:23:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x5ca3a9…
05-17 00:23:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x80b982…
05-17 00:22:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x58dcba…
05-17 00:22:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0xbf9664…
05-17 00:20:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0xa5dac2…
05-17 00:20:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0xc16cc0…
05-17 00:20:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x870673…
05-17 00:18:41	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0927ea…
05-16 01:43:41	Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xed725d…
05-16 01:40:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0xb915d9…
05-16 01:40:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0xad8989…
05-15 17:47:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	19¢	$97	0xe61443…
05-15 17:47:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	474	6¢	$31	0x355488…
05-15 16:52:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	22¢	$112	0x96fd95…
05-15 16:51:13	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	52¢	$51	0x6221a0…
05-15 16:51:13	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x17c2b5…
05-15 16:50:59	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xba4dad…
05-15 16:50:59	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x3a1b27…
05-15 13:27:50	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x0b8a60…
05-15 07:34:52	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xe8bbea…
05-15 04:12:07	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x0d92fa…
05-14 15:21:57	Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	300	72¢	$216	0x5cdaba…
05-14 00:21:48	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	1¢	$1	0xe9a91d…
05-13 07:20:15	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	51	85¢	$44	0xa7c34b…