Ordinary-Bell — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$984

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

97.9%

Resolved

256

Trades

496

lifetime

Volume

$58.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$118

Open exposure

$1.34K

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 10-31 08:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Other

90% 95% +$942

Politics

5% 100% +$30

Crypto

3% 100% +$11

Sports

2% 75% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	+498	$496	100¢	$497	+$1	10-29 07:10
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+300	$286	98¢	$294	+$8	10-28 03:25
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-111	-$102	97¢	$-108	-$6	07-01 13:25
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+100	$94	97¢	$97	+$3	09-16 03:16
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	+80	$80	100¢	$80	+$0	10-31 08:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	+50	$46	94¢	$47	+$1	10-28 03:25
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+41	$39	100¢	$41	+$1	10-31 08:48
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	+40	$39	97¢	$39	$0	10-31 08:21
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	+37	$36	96¢	$36	+$0	10-31 08:20
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	No	+30	$29	100¢	$30	+$1	10-02 07:44
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	+30	$30	100¢	$30	+$0	10-31 08:27
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+30	$28	92¢	$27	$0	10-29 07:45
Will Hyperliquid reach $200 by December 31, 2026?	No	+16	$15	96¢	$15	$0	10-31 07:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 31?	1	$1.9K	1,859	0	+1,859	No	+$6	05-31 02:31
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on May 16?	1	$1.8K	1,816	0	+1,816	No	+$2	05-15 01:43
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on July 1?	1	$1.8K	1,758	0	+1,758	No	+$2	06-30 09:59
highest temperature in hong kong on april 23 2026 28c	18	$1.7K	1,189	1,454	-265	No	+$868	04-23 05:25
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 28?	1	$1.6K	1,593	0	+1,593	Yes	+$2	04-28 08:54
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 29?	1	$1.6K	1,592	0	+1,592	Yes	+$2	04-29 08:15
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 27?	1	$1.6K	1,590	0	+1,590	No	+$2	04-27 08:40
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on April 28?	13	$1.4K	746	745	+0	Yes	+$2	04-28 08:35
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 30?	5	$1.3K	1,350	0	+1,350	No	+$2	04-30 04:33
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$1.3K	1,300	0	+1,300	Yes	+$9	05-11 03:02
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	2	$1.3K	1,279	0	+1,279	No	+$26	06-13 03:46
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 16?	1	$1.1K	1,119	0	+1,119	No	+$2	05-16 06:56
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	3	$965	977	0	+977	No	+$12	09-26 03:40
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 2?	3	$844	847	0	+847	No	+$3	06-02 09:31
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C or below on July 10?	1	$802	803	0	+803	No	+$1	07-09 10:41
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 15	3	$712	718	0	+718	No	+$6	06-19 12:00
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 29?	1	$665	668	0	+668	No	+$3	05-28 13:12
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 1?	3	$623	624	0	+624	No	+$1	05-01 02:41
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 9?	1	$567	568	0	+568	No	+$1	07-09 10:50
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 23?	1	$566	577	0	+577	No	+$12	05-23 04:03
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2?	1	$528	542	0	+542	No	+$14	06-02 08:53
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 29?	1	$515	516	0	+516	No	+$1	05-28 13:04
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on May 12?	1	$510	512	0	+512	No	+$2	05-11 03:03
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 16?	1	$499	500	0	+500	No	+$1	05-16 05:21
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C or higher on May 26?	3	$497	500	0	+500	No	+$3	05-26 09:11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	1	$496	498	0	+498	open	—	10-29 07:10
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 1?	2	$496	498	0	+498	No	+$1	05-01 03:53
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 24?	3	$487	490	0	+490	Yes	+$3	05-24 13:37
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26?	1	$460	471	0	+471	No	+$11	05-26 12:59
will lamine yamal score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610223932026	2	$458	459	0	+459	No	+$1	07-15 09:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 08:48:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$39	0x73bfb8…
10-31 08:27:12	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x3d8b44…
10-31 08:21:55	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	99¢	$80	0x8a98cc…
10-31 08:21:24	Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xd20d67…
10-31 08:20:21	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	96¢	$36	0x66c6c1…
10-31 07:54:18	Will Hyperliquid reach $200 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x8a5f08…
10-31 07:53:52	Will BNB dip to $300 in October?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x5f8374…
10-31 07:53:03	Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x9a0d6b…
10-31 07:50:43	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x263b80…
10-29 07:48:25	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xd86412…
10-29 07:45:05	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xfff240…
10-29 07:43:56	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb54fc1…
10-29 07:38:32	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb908c3…
10-29 07:35:41	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5847f4…
10-29 07:35:22	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xefb71e…
10-29 07:35:16	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xe7ad65…
10-29 07:34:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x8d7b1d…
10-29 07:34:16	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xcee8f2…
10-29 07:33:59	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x6adc49…
10-29 07:33:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xab2e3a…
10-29 07:33:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb3dd71…
10-29 07:33:38	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc46ca5…
10-29 07:33:14	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x2182de…
10-29 07:33:04	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x99a9ab…
10-29 07:32:47	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xa015e0…
10-29 07:32:35	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xbb1f5e…
10-29 07:32:28	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xf4d871…
10-29 07:32:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x0ae71f…
10-29 07:32:13	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xcb2d52…
10-29 07:31:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x37dbc7…
10-29 07:31:43	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x90c848…
10-29 07:31:32	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $272 in October?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x0ee230…
10-29 07:30:55	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in October?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xefaddf…
10-29 07:30:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in October?	No	BUY	64	100¢	$63	0x3922b5…
10-29 07:21:17	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x5c21b3…
10-29 07:13:04	Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x70d2c9…
10-29 07:10:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	498	100¢	$496	0x63b198…
10-28 03:26:57	Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x2854c3…
10-28 03:25:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xabd9f5…
10-28 03:25:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x8f9757…
10-28 03:25:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x0b7670…
10-05 01:27:10	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	192	99¢	$191	0xa99e20…
10-04 06:26:44	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0xf8a0d4…
10-04 06:05:04	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	No	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0xbb6f1b…
10-04 05:42:34	Will BNB reach $1,200 in October?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0xa982ee…
10-04 05:41:59	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf7701f…
10-04 05:41:13	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x736424…
10-04 05:37:05	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in October?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x64d4b8…
10-02 07:44:24	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xa14414…
09-26 03:40:30	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	BUY	577	100¢	$575	0x928fa9…
09-18 01:34:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x25705f…
09-16 03:16:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xb3e876…
09-16 03:12:33	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in september 2026	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x050ec6…
09-16 03:09:15	Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x3b88c8…
09-16 03:08:39	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xfbd26e…
09-06 12:24:07	Will Solana reach $200 in September?	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x62a135…
09-03 07:27:03	dtrump out as president by september 30	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0x575099…
09-03 07:23:18	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xefa2a9…
08-27 12:52:15	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x13b166…
08-26 01:53:40	Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on August 26?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0xe7458e…
08-26 01:51:57	Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on August 25?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x38a16c…
08-26 01:38:07	Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or below on August 25?	No	BUY	333	100¢	$332	0x64fee2…
08-25 07:38:51	Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 17°C on August 25?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6beaae…
08-25 07:38:40	Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 18°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	165	99¢	$163	0x71d638…
08-25 07:22:16	Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x2b30dc…
08-25 07:19:12	Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x9d2867…
08-25 07:18:52	Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on August 25?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xb63568…
08-25 07:18:42	Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0xf06f97…
08-25 07:11:21	Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	127	98¢	$125	0x5bfb23…
08-24 08:22:03	Will the lowest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x98e76e…
08-24 08:17:24	Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x55708c…
08-24 08:11:36	Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	81	98¢	$79	0x8efa1b…
08-24 08:05:10	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 24?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xb3f8dd…
08-24 08:03:12	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 24?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x603352…
08-24 08:01:45	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 24?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1930bd…
08-24 08:01:25	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 24?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbd639c…
08-24 08:00:39	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on August 24?	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x8c7fe3…
08-24 07:35:43	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in August?	No	BUY	57	98¢	$56	0xf4a70d…
08-24 07:31:28	will bitcoin reach 84k on august 24 2026	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xf72cb4…
08-24 07:28:25	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?	No	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0x935df9…
08-24 07:28:15	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x631254…
08-22 03:15:36	Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on August 22?	No	BUY	361	100¢	$360	0x78385a…
08-21 13:23:30	Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on August 21?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x09006a…
08-21 13:13:48	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on August 22?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x75aa3e…
08-21 13:09:52	Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x47b34c…
08-21 13:08:30	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 22?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x682316…
08-21 13:07:28	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on August 22?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x501a2d…
08-21 13:06:28	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on August 21?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x71d357…
08-21 13:06:12	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on August 21?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe00b8d…
08-21 13:05:57	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x50e116…
08-21 13:02:19	Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xeedaff…
08-21 13:02:12	Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 21?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xf39832…
08-21 13:01:57	Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on August 21?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$55	0xdd3c52…
08-21 13:01:37	Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x5fca51…
08-21 13:00:03	Will the lowest temperature in Busan be 26°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	81	93¢	$75	0x3d1b12…
08-21 12:56:33	Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xcc6a1c…
08-21 12:56:07	Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on August 21?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x7c4402…
08-21 12:53:27	Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 9°C on August 21?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xf515aa…
08-21 09:44:36	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by august 31 20260730185522346	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xee3583…
08-21 01:57:04	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	300	100¢	$298	0x27a409…