Phony-Indigence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

58.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$115

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-18

last 09-11 14:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

54% 83% -$1

Other

21% 89% -$2

Sports

11% 60% +$0

Crypto

10% 83% -$1

Tech

4% 100% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No		+115	$111	97¢	$111	+$0	09-07 21:07
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		+115	$4	3¢	$4	$0	09-11 14:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$240	240	240	+0	No	$0	06-23 01:56
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	4	$239	240	240	+0	open	—	08-16 19:58
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	10	$226	210	210	+0	open	—	07-24 12:01
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$225	115	115	+0	open	—	09-03 16:01
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	10	$187	146	146	+0	open	—	07-05 05:22
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$180	180	180	+0	open	—	07-22 16:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	2	$167	125	125	+0	Yes	-$2	06-10 21:27
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	10	$115	230	0	+230	open	—	09-11 14:26
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	2	$91	200	0	+200	Yes	+$9	05-22 22:08
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	1	$84	84	0	+84	No	+$0	05-25 22:19
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	1	$80	80	0	+80	No	+$0	06-04 09:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	1	$65	65	0	+65	Yes	+$0	05-26 22:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	05-18 10:34
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$47	110	110	+0	open	—	08-25 20:53
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	2	$46	425	0	+425	Yes	-$1	05-18 10:53
bitcoin above 54k on june 11 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	06-10 20:35
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-27 19:39
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-04 09:33
bitcoin above 62k on july 22 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	Yes	+$0	07-22 10:13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	06-04 09:31
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	07-04 21:31
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 26?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-25 22:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	05-22 21:04
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	09-02 20:23
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	08-14 20:41
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 18?	2	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	05-18 11:24
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-04 09:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	06-27 20:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	07-02 09:57
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	1	$7	7	0	+7	Yes	+$0	07-22 10:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 14:26:51	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	46	3¢	$2	0xa7dd33…
09-11 14:23:24	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x24d07c…
09-11 12:07:57	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xea6282…
09-10 23:43:01	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x67e890…
09-10 17:04:13	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xcefad3…
09-10 14:48:51	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x4603cf…
09-10 13:08:39	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x93c6a8…
09-10 11:29:57	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x4afd42…
09-10 09:55:28	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xef5756…
09-07 21:07:39	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	115	97¢	$111	0x55ad52…
09-03 16:01:49	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	115	98¢	$112	0xdad9de…
09-02 20:23:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbfd2cd…
08-25 20:55:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x044128…
08-25 20:54:55	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	115	98¢	$112	0x0d493c…
08-25 20:53:54	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	110	19¢	$21	0xbd1b79…
08-16 20:51:37	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	110	23¢	$25	0x735cec…
08-16 19:58:13	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	120	8¢	$9	0xa1b281…
08-14 20:42:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd38f60…
08-14 20:41:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3a5a97…
08-05 14:58:02	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	120	91¢	$110	0x3faa20…
08-02 20:51:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x30bdd4…
07-28 10:02:32	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	120	9¢	$10	0x83c561…
07-27 09:39:39	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	120	91¢	$109	0x49bbd0…
07-27 08:37:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xe5ca65…
07-24 12:01:40	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0xc5d087…
07-22 16:45:09	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	90	42¢	$38	0xcb7591…
07-22 10:36:58	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	90	58¢	$53	0xc400e2…
07-22 10:13:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xfc35a2…
07-22 10:13:09	bitcoin above 62k on july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xcc7324…
07-15 16:52:11	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	90	42¢	$38	0x060c89…
07-15 15:40:43	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	90	58¢	$52	0xf13118…
07-15 09:30:35	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x6692fd…
07-15 09:14:52	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	98¢	$4	0xbe52cc…
07-10 15:26:14	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x047508…
07-09 18:36:05	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 10 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x28225f…
07-05 05:22:22	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	36	22¢	$8	0xfa64d6…
07-05 04:54:49	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	78¢	$57	0xa46aba…
07-05 02:12:05	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	78¢	$28	0xf9a5b6…
07-04 21:32:14	lol tsw tes 2026 07 04	Top Esports	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x7dd698…
07-04 21:31:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xeb2b51…
07-02 13:28:58	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	78¢	$86	0xf7fd42…
07-02 13:28:46	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x6458a3…
07-02 13:28:25	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x770969…
07-02 13:28:19	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x237ce8…
07-02 13:28:16	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xd4da09…
07-02 13:28:14	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	16	22¢	$3	0x3e915e…
07-02 13:28:14	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x039f80…
07-02 09:58:17	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x969525…
07-02 09:57:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xab73fd…
06-28 04:01:47	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	55	90¢	$50	0x9ad6a9…
06-28 00:04:22	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	51	90¢	$46	0x8e7a87…
06-27 23:23:55	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0xaa21e7…
06-27 20:10:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xbee2ef…
06-27 19:39:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x838e64…
06-23 01:56:31	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	120	7¢	$8	0xe4a880…
06-23 00:17:20	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0xbd763c…
06-23 00:10:53	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	43	91¢	$39	0x421241…
06-22 23:25:10	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	17	91¢	$15	0xd6e860…
06-22 21:20:47	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x7f1ca2…
06-22 20:51:20	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x216e91…
06-21 02:37:02	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	120	93¢	$111	0x1f0c40…
06-17 17:08:16	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	120	89¢	$107	0x445cd9…
06-16 21:36:05	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	120	11¢	$13	0xe30ce2…
06-16 21:14:19	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x24743c…
06-16 21:13:52	mlb atl cws 2026 06 11	Atlanta Braves	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe85faf…
06-10 21:27:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	66¢	$82	0x99af64…
06-10 20:37:19	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Alex Pereira	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x6b3932…
06-10 20:36:39	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xaf9252…
06-10 20:35:30	bitcoin above 54k on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xedccb7…
06-09 22:58:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	68¢	$85	0x163583…
06-04 09:33:24	dota2 aur1 ty 2026 06 04	Team Yandex	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x908556…
06-04 09:33:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe33c37…
06-04 09:32:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x2ba65b…
06-04 09:31:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd37778…
06-04 09:30:55	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xdb0a5c…
05-26 22:46:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x0b609a…
05-26 22:03:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x137f22…
05-25 22:19:36	Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x19ec5f…
05-25 22:19:18	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x453bce…
05-25 22:18:41	Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 26?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe6e90c…
05-22 22:08:01	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xd70839…
05-22 21:32:16	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x3c9255…
05-22 21:04:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xdcf94e…
05-18 22:23:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x501616…
05-18 11:24:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd54579…
05-18 11:13:59	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x08f35a…
05-18 10:53:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x78349d…
05-18 10:50:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x9e6255…
05-18 10:36:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	380	0¢	$1	0xedf024…
05-18 10:34:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x19f9b9…