Baggy-Outlay — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$48

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

141

Trades

191

lifetime

Volume

$4.33K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-28 04:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

42% 100% +$18

Politics

33% 90% +$16

Crypto

20% 100% +$13

Tech

5% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+1	$1	56¢	$1	$0	10-27 16:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$336	168	168	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 06:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	4	$318	164	164	+0	No	+$0	09-12 01:47
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	3	$316	159	159	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:19
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	3	$274	139	139	+0	No	+$3	09-01 06:58
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$260	138	138	-0	open	—	10-28 04:03
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$168	158	158	+0	Yes	+$6	09-10 00:08
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$160	162	0	+162	Yes	+$2	09-10 14:06
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?	1	$146	146	0	+146	No	+$0	08-19 02:55
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$145	146	0	+146	No	+$0	08-14 12:57
will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	1	$145	145	0	+145	No	+$0	08-06 13:51
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	1	$144	145	0	+145	No	+$1	08-11 22:55
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	1	$144	144	0	+144	No	+$0	08-09 23:10
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$138	139	0	+139	No	+$0	08-22 02:29
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$133	133	0	+133	No	+$0	06-06 09:53
will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	2	$107	54	54	+0	No	+$0	09-29 04:33
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$100	106	0	+106	No	+$6	08-04 21:49
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$96	97	0	+97	Yes	+$1	05-28 19:38
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$94	97	0	+97	Yes	+$3	05-25 10:09
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$88	94	0	+94	No	+$6	09-30 17:57
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$81	42	42	+0	open	—	10-14 06:53
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$78	81	0	+81	No	+$3	09-30 05:18
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$76	78	0	+78	Yes	+$1	07-30 13:04
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	2	$48	24	24	+0	Yes	+$0	10-13 06:43
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$46	47	0	+47	No	+$1	08-03 22:09
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	05-05 06:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$39	41	0	+41	No	+$1	05-19 15:31
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $75M one day after launch?	1	$39	42	0	+42	open	—	10-10 20:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	2	$38	19	19	+0	No	+$0	09-30 00:09
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$34	40	0	+40	Yes	+$5	05-16 11:12
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$28	14	14	+0	No	+$0	09-30 14:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 04:03:31	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	138	96¢	$133	0x2410f4…
10-28 03:48:24	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6b1b23…
10-27 16:53:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x835038…
10-25 23:31:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x7d9692…
10-24 16:12:02	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	126	92¢	$116	0x09dc27…
10-24 15:41:29	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0xa76bd3…
10-14 22:26:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	15¢	$2	0xbf5fd9…
10-14 06:53:40	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	42	96¢	$41	0x184bac…
10-13 06:43:43	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x47423e…
10-12 20:26:03	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	97¢	$24	0xb5d701…
10-12 02:35:21	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x0a07e2…
10-10 20:48:55	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $75M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	42	92¢	$39	0xc342ae…
10-10 16:07:25	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x5b1837…
10-10 12:09:24	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x4d69fb…
10-10 00:14:32	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x99a6b1…
10-08 23:03:51	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x5a6a2c…
10-08 17:14:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x3c99e4…
10-05 06:37:10	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	168	100¢	$168	0xa3dca7…
10-04 23:40:19	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	168	100¢	$168	0xcbf419…
10-03 13:30:35	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xf0850a…
09-30 17:57:09	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x52d69b…
09-30 14:06:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xd411c7…
09-30 05:18:45	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	81	96¢	$78	0x9deca4…
09-30 00:09:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x15aa59…
09-29 13:09:38	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x17bb5c…
09-29 04:33:21	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	SELL	54	100¢	$53	0x602b19…
09-27 17:27:18	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	BUY	54	100¢	$53	0x886e4d…
09-25 07:24:42	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x641e3d…
09-24 19:17:21	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	76	92¢	$70	0xa13c1b…
09-24 10:56:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x056136…
09-22 13:28:57	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xaa417a…
09-12 01:47:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	164	97¢	$159	0x4e7920…
09-11 07:15:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$13	0x82e1b8…
09-11 06:04:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x90b047…
09-11 05:47:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x637deb…
09-10 14:06:15	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	130	99¢	$128	0x8b805b…
09-10 13:06:49	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x1729d8…
09-10 00:08:40	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	158	55¢	$87	0x40ad1d…
09-09 18:36:57	LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	158	51¢	$81	0xfd8394…
09-07 12:19:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	155	100¢	$154	0xa08cbf…
09-07 12:18:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x307e93…
09-05 10:35:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	159	99¢	$158	0x93027f…
09-01 06:58:58	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	139	100¢	$139	0x581de5…
08-30 10:50:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x86006f…
08-29 22:16:25	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5a0f67…
08-27 17:16:39	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0a2a60…
08-25 06:03:06	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	125	98¢	$122	0xd170ea…
08-24 23:11:18	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x21c8d7…
08-22 02:29:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	139	100¢	$138	0x63b412…
08-20 23:34:31	Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xba11d9…
08-20 21:26:12	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xf80e80…
08-19 05:54:46	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x610e76…
08-19 02:55:06	Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	146	100¢	$146	0x02f52e…
08-14 12:57:18	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	146	100¢	$145	0x29765d…
08-11 22:55:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	145	99¢	$144	0xf3e900…
08-09 23:10:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0x2b4a4b…
08-07 08:18:52	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdb9858…
08-06 13:51:20	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0x24429d…
08-06 01:56:21	will ethereum dip to 900 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6ff5b7…
08-05 18:59:03	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x4306c0…
08-04 21:49:44	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xbf5f14…
08-03 22:09:33	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x00cd24…
07-30 13:40:38	will ethereum reach 2200 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5c7dd8…
07-30 13:04:54	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	78	98¢	$76	0xdfd569…
07-27 23:53:43	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x79df20…
07-27 12:25:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x1c9292…
07-25 11:20:43	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0da7f3…
07-24 05:34:25	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xd0f255…
07-23 20:54:33	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf239d8…
07-21 15:12:16	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1fdd38…
07-21 11:43:24	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3876ff…
07-21 10:06:07	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x522f9d…
07-20 21:20:42	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x9a65d0…
07-20 17:05:30	will wti dip to 40 in july 2026 719 985	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x72e0de…
07-17 13:23:12	will ethereum dip to 900 in july 2026 757	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xea588e…
07-16 20:42:43	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x07aa53…
06-30 03:25:11	Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3d0458…
06-28 21:42:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3667f7…
06-28 21:31:41	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x403e57…
06-28 18:47:58	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xe50013…
06-28 11:13:20	will ng dip to 2 60 in june 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x14a3ae…
06-26 06:49:43	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$11	0x7ae220…
06-08 20:26:43	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5dc7d9…
06-06 09:53:04	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0x0b8ec3…
06-06 02:30:00	Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3cc906…
05-30 09:14:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb050be…
05-28 19:38:59	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x6a7aff…
05-25 10:09:42	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	41	98¢	$41	0x73d026…
05-22 06:33:37	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0x9ea041…
05-19 15:31:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$39	0xf62e68…
05-16 11:12:36	Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	87¢	$34	0x4ff2a0…
05-16 08:42:15	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x670174…
05-15 13:03:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4847b5…
05-10 23:07:32	Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0x2af8eb…
05-10 18:19:04	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5d1c25…
05-10 04:10:31	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcbf81d…
05-09 15:20:56	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe79e87…
05-09 14:24:56	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe4b5eb…
05-09 12:26:33	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd6c0ee…
05-08 13:59:59	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf5276a…