Realized P&L
-$27
Unrealized P&L
+$4.75K
Hit rate
48.0%
Resolved
6
Trades
1,649
lifetime
Volume
$153.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$93
Open exposure
$7.20K
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
65% 60% $-8
Other
33% 0% $-19
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk • peak 96 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No -764 $-5,480 100¢ $-762 +$4,718 06-20 00:07
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +800 $705 90¢ $716 +$11 06-24 03:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No -696 $-637 100¢ $-695 $-58 06-02 07:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +999 $649 68¢ $674 +$25 06-28 07:16
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +927 $564 70¢ $653 +$89 06-21 20:40
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +1,000 $540 59¢ $590 +$50 06-22 13:25
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -684 $-385 80¢ $-551 $-166 06-20 07:21
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +439 $382 88¢ $384 +$2 06-22 11:05
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +396 $316 74¢ $293 $-24 06-20 06:01
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No -295 $-194 99¢ $-291 $-97 06-17 06:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +288 $251 86¢ $246 $-4 06-22 07:53
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +274 $228 86¢ $234 +$7 06-30 14:21
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No -406 $-262 44¢ $-179 +$83 06-18 11:18
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -422 $-193 37¢ $-156 +$37 06-17 06:51
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +482 $58 25¢ $120 +$63 06-22 15:46
Blue wave in 2026? Yes -155 $-111 74¢ $-114 $-3 06-17 06:52
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -174 $-75 57¢ $-100 $-25 06-17 06:52
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -200 $-150 50¢ $-99 +$51 06-05 22:47
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No -114 $-97 82¢ $-94 +$3 06-16 11:12
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No +99 $82 85¢ $84 +$2 06-22 15:18
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No +71 $61 88¢ $63 +$1 06-29 16:58
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No -41 $-38 94¢ $-39 $-1 06-14 21:58
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +42 $33 74¢ $31 $-2 06-29 12:08
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +26 $19 71¢ $19 $-1 06-10 09:32
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? No +17 $14 88¢ $15 +$0 06-29 14:18
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +615 $15 $1 $-14 06-22 07:54