Realized P&L
-$1.72K
Unrealized P&L
+$557
Hit rate
68.9%
Resolved
317
Trades
2,780
lifetime
Volume
$265.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$95
Open exposure
$8.57K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 04:01
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 107 days
Categories
Politics
60% 53% -$2,027
Other
40% 55% -$278
Tech
1% 50% +$581
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +1,633 $1,203 84¢ $1.4K +$168 10-22 15:19
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +774 $549 74¢ $573 +$23 10-04 22:53
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +615 $456 93¢ $572 +$116 10-23 14:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by november 30 2026 No +682 $382 78¢ $528 +$147 09-28 16:25
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +594 $446 82¢ $484 +$39 10-11 16:57
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +573 $392 80¢ $456 +$64 10-10 09:12
will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31 No +616 $181 74¢ $453 +$272 08-10 21:06
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +501 $395 80¢ $398 +$3 10-21 16:24
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15 Yes +651 $339 52¢ $342 +$3 10-16 10:20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +501 $238 65¢ $326 +$88 10-10 09:11
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -340 -$153 92¢ $-315 -$161 06-17 06:52
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No +342 $185 86¢ $292 +$107 09-15 12:22
will russia capture vodianske by december 31 20260724162613572 No +543 $260 52¢ $285 +$24 08-19 08:35
will russia capture mala tokmachka by december 31 2026 No +339 $99 80¢ $270 +$171 10-12 15:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? No +504 $242 48¢ $245 +$3 09-15 12:28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +645 $374 37¢ $239 -$135 10-10 09:14
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918 Yes +784 $259 28¢ $216 -$43 10-14 12:16
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +214 $184 98¢ $211 +$27 09-15 12:22
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -200 -$351 94¢ $-189 +$162 08-04 14:53
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +279 $148 62¢ $172 +$24 08-14 14:09
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 Yes +1,350 $445 12¢ $155 -$290 10-04 11:52
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -156 -$227 95¢ $-148 +$79 09-16 17:12
russia ukraine peace talks by november 30 2026 No +556 $228 15¢ $83 -$144 09-28 10:41
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,057 $85 8¢ $79 -$5 10-05 20:47
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -82 -$307 87¢ $-72 +$235 08-19 17:41
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No +356 $184 12¢ $41 -$143 10-15 08:34
tyler robinson convicted of homicide Yes +192 $181 12¢ $22 -$159 10-09 10:59
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -22 -$18 94¢ $-21 -$4 06-18 11:18
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Yes +357 $141 2¢ $7 -$134 09-30 14:46
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +0 -$21 96¢ $0 +$21 07-27 03:36