Realized P&L
-$27
Unrealized P&L
+$310
Hit rate
48.0%
Resolved
6
Trades
1,770
lifetime
Volume
$167.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$95
Open exposure
$5.00K
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 09:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
64% 60% $-8
Other
34% 0% $-19
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 96 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,326 $1,025 72¢ $962 $-63 07-20 19:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +927 $564 78¢ $727 +$163 06-21 20:40
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -684 $-385 86¢ $-592 $-207 06-20 07:21
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +734 $491 74¢ $547 +$56 07-05 09:58
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +1,325 $159 29¢ $384 +$225 07-04 05:16
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +396 $316 82¢ $324 +$8 06-20 06:01
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -422 $-193 45¢ $-190 +$3 06-17 06:51
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +212 $176 90¢ $190 +$14 07-07 06:09
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +214 $192 86¢ $185 $-7 07-07 06:09
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No -406 $-262 42¢ $-171 +$91 06-18 11:18
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No +169 $140 90¢ $151 +$11 07-01 15:20
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -174 $-75 70¢ $-122 $-48 06-17 06:52
Blue wave in 2026? Yes -155 $-111 76¢ $-117 $-6 06-17 06:52
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -200 $-150 54¢ $-107 +$43 06-05 22:47
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No -114 $-97 80¢ $-92 +$5 06-16 11:12
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No -41 $-38 99¢ $-41 $-3 06-14 21:58
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +45 $20 88¢ $40 +$20 07-20 07:16
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +42 $33 78¢ $33 $-0 06-29 12:08
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? No +17 $14 91¢ $15 +$1 06-29 14:18
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +72 $4 11¢ $8 +$4 07-06 08:46