Realized P&L
-$1.42K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.90K
Hit rate
62.4%
Resolved
537
Trades
4,147
lifetime
Volume
$116.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$28
Open exposure
$5.35K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 11-05 15:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 141 days
Categories
Other
43% 33% -$2,564
Politics
36% 42% +$1,645
Tech
15% 45% -$212
Sports
4% 51% -$175
Crypto
1% 40% -$117
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
50 active days in 12wk • peak 149 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +1,500 $480 99¢ $1.5K +$1,006 11-03 19:53
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026? Yes +1,400 $506 99¢ $1.4K +$881 11-03 22:32
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +957 $511 72¢ $694 +$183 11-05 13:55
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%? Yes +286 $63 97¢ $279 +$216 11-03 21:24
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 3%-6%? Yes +220 $57 96¢ $212 +$155 11-03 20:06
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +796 $221 21¢ $167 -$53 10-14 18:41
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election by 3%-6%? Yes +130 $22 99¢ $129 +$107 11-03 22:41
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +200 $165 64¢ $129 -$36 11-05 13:54
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 12%-15%? Yes +100 $14 100¢ $100 +$86 11-03 22:34
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more? Yes +100 $21 97¢ $97 +$76 11-03 22:35
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 0%-3%? Yes +98 $24 94¢ $92 +$69 11-03 22:14
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%? Yes +100 $34 77¢ $77 +$43 11-03 14:15
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Yes +100 $68 77¢ $77 +$9 06-29 04:04
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +200 $52 34¢ $67 +$15 09-16 01:25
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +420 $343 14¢ $57 -$286 11-05 15:28
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +200 $70 25¢ $51 -$19 07-15 02:17
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +58 -$9 81¢ $47 +$56 11-03 22:39
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +144 $11 31¢ $45 +$34 11-03 22:50
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +30 $5 86¢ $26 +$20 10-31 00:27
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 6%-9%? Yes +110 $18 20¢ $22 +$4 11-03 22:40
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 5%-10%? Yes +88 $33 20¢ $18 -$15 11-03 22:45
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +179 $93 10¢ $17 -$75 10-28 01:35
Will Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election? Yes +554 $73 3¢ $15 -$58 07-19 05:41
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%? Yes +200 $12 8¢ $15 +$3 11-03 14:23
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,300 $226 1¢ $11 -$215 10-27 11:52
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +200 $41 5¢ $10 -$31 10-27 14:45
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +9 -$27 97¢ $9 +$35 07-22 15:57
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +100 $54 8¢ $8 -$46 06-26 14:29
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,393 $151 0¢ $6 -$144 10-10 11:36
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 0%-5%? Yes +467 $125 1¢ $6 -$119 11-03 22:45