Realized P&L
-$498
Unrealized P&L
+$562
Hit rate
0.7%
Resolved
147
Trades
3,284
lifetime
Volume
$106.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$32
Open exposure
$23.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-04
last 10-27 01:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 43 days
Categories
Other
62% 5% -$376
Politics
23% 7% -$47
Tech
7% 0% -$43
Crypto
5% 0% -$11
Pop-Culture
2% 20% -$22
Sports
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
52 active days in 12wk • peak 159 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? No +1,593 $1,463 96¢ $1.5K +$75 10-24 18:12
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,450 $1,351 92¢ $1.3K -$25 10-25 22:00
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +1,350 $1,251 92¢ $1.2K -$16 10-25 12:16
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? No +1,150 $1,086 98¢ $1.1K +$46 10-25 03:54
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No +1,100 $1,037 98¢ $1.1K +$43 10-26 09:07
Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV? No +1,070 $1,041 96¢ $1.0K -$9 10-23 16:55
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +1,000 $965 100¢ $998 +$34 10-01 06:50
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes +1,000 $926 100¢ $996 +$70 10-04 07:16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +971 $903 96¢ $932 +$29 10-25 14:01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +900 $839 95¢ $853 +$14 10-15 21:01
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No +922 $876 92¢ $848 -$27 10-24 06:42
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +909 $834 92¢ $836 +$2 10-25 23:25
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? No +848 $804 92¢ $776 -$28 10-25 23:18
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No +800 $777 96¢ $770 -$7 10-25 01:18
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +766 $730 92¢ $701 -$29 10-21 04:41
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31? No +682 $651 96¢ $657 +$6 10-25 23:07
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No +679 $648 96¢ $654 +$6 10-15 22:19
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026? No +748 $697 87¢ $648 -$49 10-25 00:00
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No — +711 $650 91¢ $647 -$2 10-23 23:50
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? No +650 $604 96¢ $625 +$21 10-16 01:07
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +581 $533 96¢ $558 +$24 09-19 07:54
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +691 $644 80¢ $556 -$88 10-19 10:17
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +550 $503 98¢ $538 +$35 10-19 08:09
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes +531 $493 92¢ $486 -$7 10-26 00:17
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No +503 $478 96¢ $482 +$3 10-25 01:08
GTA VI released by November 30? Yes +500 $481 95¢ $476 -$5 10-22 22:05
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? No +461 $435 99¢ $456 +$21 10-15 04:44
us imports russian diesel by october 31 No +450 $425 98¢ $440 +$15 10-26 05:57
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +550 $49 80¢ $439 +$390 10-14 09:34
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +450 $418 97¢ $436 +$18 10-02 06:41