Happy-Go-Lucky-Spyglass — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.9%

Resolved

336

Trades

640

lifetime

Volume

$8.18K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 10-25 04:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

81% 89% -$27

Crypto

11% 95% +$1

Politics

5% 73% +$0

Sports

1% 56% $0

Tech

1% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Uber # of trips above 4.8B in Q1?	5	$108	54	54	+0	No	+$0	05-06 11:08
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 8?	5	$89	45	45	+0	No	+$0	05-08 18:16
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 6?	10	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	05-06 02:10
highest temperature in atlanta on april 24 2026 74 75f	4	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	04-24 13:09
highest temperature in madrid on april 2 2026 22c	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	04-02 02:11
will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on march 26	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	03-26 07:31
highest temperature in singapore on april 1 2026 34c	1	$61	61	0	+61	Yes	+$0	04-01 11:38
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or below on May 6?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-06 09:10
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	3	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	04-29 21:31
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 17?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-17 14:02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-04 15:29
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	6	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-02 13:08
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 7?	3	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-07 11:25
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-09 15:05
will the captive be the 2 global netflix movie this week	1	$55	56	0	+56	No	+$0	03-30 04:22
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	2	$55	28	28	+0	Yes	$0	05-10 17:42
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 6?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-06 04:24
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 10?	2	$53	27	27	+0	Yes	+$0	05-10 17:44
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14?	2	$52	26	26	+0	Yes	+$0	05-14 16:09
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on May 5?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-05 08:20
highest temperature in wuhan on march 29 2026 25c	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	03-29 10:48
highest temperature in madrid on march 28 2026 13corbelow	1	$51	51	0	+51	No	+$0	03-28 03:53
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 8?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-07 14:57
highest temperature in houston on april 23 2026 70 71f	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-23 01:56
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-10 17:45
highest temperature in moscow on april 17 2026 17corhigher	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-17 13:32
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 15?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-14 16:10
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 3?	3	$49	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-02 09:21
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 29?	2	$49	24	24	+0	No	+$0	04-29 12:00
will nflx close between 80 and 90 week april 17 2026	5	$48	24	24	+0	No	$0	04-17 14:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 04:34:06	Will Betis win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7b7333…
10-25 04:33:18	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xd2033d…
10-25 03:40:09	Will Betis win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x085203…
10-10 12:24:51	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9b319e…
10-07 03:03:09	Will Zuby Ejiofor win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x69e5cc…
10-07 03:02:18	Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc8d0f6…
10-07 03:01:29	Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x57c836…
10-07 03:00:33	Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe0c744…
10-07 02:59:38	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7ba783…
10-07 02:58:47	Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xddefc5…
10-07 02:57:53	Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$3	0x0d6694…
10-07 02:56:41	Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x52f603…
10-07 02:55:50	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe3871a…
09-24 11:00:41	Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xad25b1…
09-16 14:41:06	Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xa51740…
09-04 17:32:16	Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6c5dcd…
08-29 19:22:10	Will Zuby Ejiofor win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6fb73a…
08-13 09:46:22	Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x81ff9b…
08-12 01:03:42	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x166d7f…
08-07 00:49:09	Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc31b97…
07-30 04:48:38	Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x348153…
07-22 14:37:25	Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa0992b…
07-16 12:56:22	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8b826f…
07-13 05:14:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe531bf…
07-03 21:17:56	Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x90c7a0…
06-30 02:26:05	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe0d91b…
06-28 07:11:35	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc520cc…
06-24 05:11:07	Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x6e1ac8…
06-24 05:10:14	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x8ef81f…
06-24 05:09:20	Will Leylah Fernandez be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb66815…
06-20 07:08:32	Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb8d349…
06-17 20:00:58	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4ed743…
06-06 02:52:04	Will Leylah Fernandez be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3972bb…
05-17 14:48:26	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa7d664…
05-17 14:48:26	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x59ff48…
05-17 14:08:19	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 17?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x9465da…
05-17 14:06:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x1eb3c3…
05-17 14:04:02	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xaf8b0b…
05-17 14:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 17?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x0b6cb8…
05-17 07:48:06	Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x44d1fb…
05-17 06:44:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbc038c…
05-17 05:02:44	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 17?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4a72dd…
05-17 02:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 17?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0x79e5d3…
05-17 01:27:29	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x241f2f…
05-17 01:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4d0092…
05-17 00:59:17	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xbaae71…
05-17 00:56:46	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xe306e9…
05-16 23:57:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x2c2965…
05-16 23:18:01	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on May 17?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd6d2df…
05-16 22:27:47	Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x80366c…
05-16 22:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x635e36…
05-16 22:24:01	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6cfc9c…
05-16 22:17:43	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xd241ce…
05-16 22:04:18	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xa27389…
05-16 20:07:17	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2960bf…
05-16 17:00:43	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdd3f6f…
05-16 15:14:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xb6e976…
05-16 14:45:16	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x4b9175…
05-16 14:22:52	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 16?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9dd165…
05-16 14:21:19	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 16?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x2a92bb…
05-16 14:20:28	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 16?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x2a2f82…
05-16 09:23:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 16?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8a849a…
05-16 07:10:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 16?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3463af…
05-16 04:18:05	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x90071d…
05-15 22:30:41	Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 16?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x34382c…
05-15 22:27:25	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xe24807…
05-15 22:22:47	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xd032bd…
05-15 21:56:34	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x2d7b18…
05-15 19:12:51	Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 16?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4fae1a…
05-15 18:05:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1295e2…
05-15 17:25:13	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 15?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb60455…
05-15 17:17:51	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x8742cc…
05-15 15:03:25	Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xacd9de…
05-15 09:53:07	Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x479092…
05-15 09:05:29	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 15?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6fd19a…
05-15 05:42:03	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x3a4383…
05-15 05:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 15?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfd31dd…
05-15 05:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 15?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x7b0c23…
05-15 03:57:38	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x13450b…
05-15 01:44:10	Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc9e95d…
05-15 01:31:39	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe2b5e8…
05-15 01:27:02	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe1ada5…
05-15 00:56:28	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xb8ea7c…
05-14 21:47:44	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf87611…
05-14 20:46:08	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x750f66…
05-14 20:14:47	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x22a728…
05-14 17:45:34	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb4f57f…
05-14 17:03:02	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb57f74…
05-14 16:25:35	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x02d1a5…
05-14 16:17:06	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xf0c7de…
05-14 16:15:46	Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x0fedb9…
05-14 16:12:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 14?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xdbcb6b…
05-14 16:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 15?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xd4bc1c…
05-14 16:09:14	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on May 14?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x7d7237…
05-14 12:15:20	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa1482f…
05-14 11:35:04	Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb43303…
05-14 10:21:07	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb179c5…
05-14 08:58:56	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6ce02e…
05-14 06:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 15?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xca3cbb…
05-14 04:15:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or higher on May 14?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa92105…