Pessimistic-Bond — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

93.5%

Resolved

135

Trades

164

lifetime

Volume

$1.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$93

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-28 06:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Politics

39% 90% +$7

Crypto

30% 100% +$5

Other

26% 99% +$5

Tech

5% 100% +$0

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		+107	$93	87¢	$93	+$0	10-22 13:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$109	86	86	+0	open	—	10-21 03:21
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	3	$103	76	31	+44	No	+$3	09-30 19:49
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$93	107	0	+107	open	—	10-22 13:27
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?	2	$83	42	42	+0	No	+$0	08-23 19:00
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	2	$82	41	41	+0	No	+$0	10-16 04:29
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$49	51	0	+51	No	+$2	10-03 17:23
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$1	09-01 06:51
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	09-05 05:52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	1	$47	48	0	+48	No	+$0	09-22 13:53
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$46	46	0	+46	Yes	+$1	09-10 16:44
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	09-17 18:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	08-07 19:25
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$40	41	0	+41	No	+$1	08-13 17:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	08-11 02:03
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$40	43	0	+43	No	+$3	08-04 22:53
tea fdv above 150m one day after launch	1	$39	40	0	+40	No	+$0	06-04 14:04
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?	1	$39	39	0	+39	No	+$0	05-05 16:38
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	08-31 13:54
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	06-27 11:22
gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	06-26 04:11
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	10-28 06:13
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$28	14	14	+0	No	+$0	09-29 06:55
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	2	$24	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	10-13 02:42
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	04-01 05:04
Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $75M one day after launch?	1	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	10-09 17:44
grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	2	$13	16	0	+16	Yes	+$3	07-24 09:47
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$13	6	6	+0	open	—	10-17 23:22
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$12	12	0	+12	Yes	+$0	05-30 14:05
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	10-21 03:21
will nvda dip to 160 in june 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-28 10:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 06:13:20	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0x43a24f…
10-23 14:19:24	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x935f47…
10-22 13:27:48	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	107	87¢	$93	0x24f95d…
10-21 03:21:56	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	86	63¢	$54	0xe85e1d…
10-21 03:21:47	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xee6d5e…
10-17 23:22:48	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe40a9e…
10-16 04:29:13	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0xeec251…
10-15 20:17:51	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x6fe8c6…
10-14 04:05:29	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	86	63¢	$54	0x095e98…
10-13 02:42:44	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xd54a4c…
10-12 22:03:35	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x757937…
10-10 08:35:28	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4498e7…
10-09 17:44:04	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $75M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x6c89d7…
10-08 14:32:15	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xcb83de…
10-03 17:23:18	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	51	96¢	$49	0xc05f0b…
09-30 19:49:32	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x3b9861…
09-30 00:24:41	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xe5693d…
09-29 06:55:48	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x94b235…
09-28 14:22:39	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9e8d61…
09-25 16:32:15	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	31	89¢	$28	0xe899cb…
09-23 11:13:22	will solana reach 200 in september 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe8d5e2…
09-23 01:01:58	Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3bc856…
09-22 13:53:33	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$47	0x31db21…
09-17 18:01:42	Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x3f2173…
09-15 23:06:04	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x24381d…
09-10 16:44:19	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xa2175c…
09-10 13:15:54	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x22e839…
09-05 05:52:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x2a8401…
09-01 06:51:34	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xee0a2b…
08-31 13:54:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xf065a7…
08-27 03:42:36	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xcca83d…
08-27 02:17:48	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x13e3cb…
08-26 10:12:21	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x64ded6…
08-25 04:20:03	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$0	0xdae2aa…
08-23 19:00:48	Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$41	0xaded70…
08-23 19:00:16	Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	SELL	203	0¢	$0	0xf540a1…
08-18 23:56:12	Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$41	0x602a9a…
08-13 17:41:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xe8e8ff…
08-11 02:03:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x7a54ac…
08-10 10:05:58	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x46765a…
08-07 19:25:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x56085f…
08-07 03:58:03	will ethereum dip to 900 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x07ef31…
08-04 22:53:38	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0xfffa66…
08-04 11:09:27	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x28025d…
08-03 23:42:53	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x67ed71…
07-30 14:26:15	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x0f50de…
07-30 05:53:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5c7e46…
07-30 05:33:17	will nvda reach 224 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x804805…
07-28 13:42:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcbe615…
07-25 09:39:54	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xebaba6…
07-24 09:47:24	grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x31f101…
07-24 09:38:39	grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x3b07da…
07-23 20:03:10	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd5d105…
07-22 01:07:18	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x3b7259…
07-21 19:58:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x048fcf…
07-21 11:24:52	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x04e375…
07-17 05:29:19	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0c18b6…
07-16 21:41:28	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5fd5ef…
07-13 06:19:01	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x0a9771…
07-03 04:39:44	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6f61f4…
07-02 12:40:26	will ethereum dip to 700 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc55e35…
06-29 17:45:23	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x034e74…
06-29 01:25:59	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2fcb3a…
06-28 21:28:10	Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe97542…
06-28 19:55:31	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x49ca35…
06-28 19:16:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0x8b28d3…
06-28 15:46:35	will nvda dip to 168 in june 2026	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x6035c9…
06-28 10:28:46	will nvda dip to 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2799fa…
06-28 05:07:10	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc008e1…
06-27 11:22:46	Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x95b627…
06-26 05:55:34	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x0818b6…
06-26 04:11:37	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x403d19…
06-04 14:04:49	tea fdv above 150m one day after launch	No	BUY	40	100¢	$39	0x0cc7b0…
05-30 14:05:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x70122a…
05-10 18:37:00	Will Solana dip to $40 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x06bd00…
05-10 15:57:40	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa1fc5a…
05-10 12:49:54	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0a675c…
05-10 10:14:07	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xaec12f…
05-10 01:48:27	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x645f9e…
05-10 01:19:31	Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7c7750…
05-09 14:57:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x917673…
05-09 10:10:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd85729…
05-08 20:18:27	Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0d83af…
05-08 11:59:41	Will Solana dip to $40 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x672ba0…
05-08 00:13:40	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaa6d16…
05-07 19:07:08	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x508e4f…
05-07 13:46:42	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa39b9f…
05-07 09:21:45	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9b4490…
05-05 16:38:28	Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x8a144f…
04-15 15:49:50	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x29dfaa…
04-15 12:22:34	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $60 end of April?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x589515…
04-15 00:56:48	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbabf95…
04-14 22:12:14	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5fdc9e…
04-14 02:44:27	Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xc99f4e…
04-12 23:37:31	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x81a813…
04-12 22:46:55	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x09943b…
04-12 15:51:31	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc78ceb…
04-12 08:21:51	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb7c2d1…
04-11 08:46:41	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfb0ecc…
04-11 06:34:59	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x52beef…