Taut-Samovar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

99.5%

Resolved

Trades

205

lifetime

Volume

$13.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$99

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 06-09 11:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

47% 100% +$0

Other

35% — —

Tech

16% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	-100	$-39	55¢	$-55	$-16	06-03 20:26
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	-1,000	$-20	2¢	$-20	$-0	06-04 05:15
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	-14	$-14	97¢	$-14	+$0	06-07 17:59
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-500	$-10	2¢	$-10	+$0	06-07 18:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$1.5K	760	760	+0	open	—	04-10 05:17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	15	$1.4K	780	780	+0	open	—	04-10 12:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	04-06 06:04
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$1.1K	774	774	+0	open	—	04-22 02:14
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$1.1K	700	700	+0	open	—	04-18 01:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	11	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-08 09:27
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$988	500	500	+0	open	—	04-29 16:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	10	$987	500	500	+0	open	—	04-30 08:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$577	300	300	+0	open	—	04-02 07:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$391	200	200	+0	open	—	05-08 09:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	3	$389	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-08 11:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$194	98	98	+0	open	—	03-30 06:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 13:55
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	10	$137	120	125	-5	open	—	03-11 15:17
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$126	63	63	+0	open	—	03-27 12:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	03-27 12:50
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	2	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	05-13 13:30
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	2	$82	100	100	+0	open	—	03-24 10:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$75	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-08 09:14
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?	2	$72	50	50	+0	open	—	05-13 13:31
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$63	32	32	+0	open	—	03-02 11:28
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-25 13:29
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	03-27 12:50
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$59	30	30	+0	open	—	03-02 11:28
will gold gc settle over 7000 on the final trading day of march 2026	2	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	03-28 13:12
will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	03-24 15:44
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	03-30 06:06
will open reach 6 00 in june 2026	2	$46	50	50	+0	open	—	06-04 05:26
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 80 99	3	$45	100	100	+0	open	—	03-19 21:15
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	2	$43	50	50	+0	open	—	05-13 13:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 11:11:07	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	800	1¢	$6	0x21bdf0…
06-07 18:00:09	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$10	0xd4cfb4…
06-07 17:59:58	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xd71ec3…
06-07 17:59:49	ebola pandemic in 2026	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x47426d…
06-04 05:26:37	will open reach 6 00 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x241e19…
06-04 05:21:21	will open reach 6 00 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x5da94f…
06-04 05:19:15	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x5d2302…
06-04 05:15:01	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	2¢	$20	0x7693a2…
06-04 03:54:28	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x29392c…
06-04 03:22:55	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	182	3¢	$6	0x73e9bd…
06-03 20:26:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xe50ec3…
05-31 19:08:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$10	0xbf0bcd…
05-31 15:21:15	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xccdcf5…
05-31 15:21:10	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	74	3¢	$2	0x2273c2…
05-31 15:04:06	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xecbc7c…
05-31 14:58:06	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	236	7¢	$17	0x59c8bf…
05-31 14:50:38	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	82	3¢	$2	0x75cac2…
05-31 14:44:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x29fd1d…
05-31 00:16:30	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x8babdd…
05-30 13:30:47	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	236	7¢	$17	0xdb9f85…
05-30 10:46:31	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xda86bd…
05-30 10:22:10	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xf01bd2…
05-30 10:20:42	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x58e070…
05-30 10:16:44	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x52af43…
05-30 10:12:58	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xb10b41…
05-30 10:12:43	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x5f30c3…
05-30 10:11:31	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x916bbb…
05-30 10:11:13	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x5c4313…
05-30 10:11:12	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x66c27c…
05-30 10:11:12	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0x0e8473…
05-30 10:10:16	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa0c8ed…
05-30 09:53:22	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x28479e…
05-30 09:53:05	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xaaa810…
05-30 09:50:48	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x100b6a…
05-30 09:49:59	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x5af1d1…
05-30 09:47:17	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xe5da3f…
05-30 09:46:12	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x4f94b1…
05-30 09:45:44	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x90d213…
05-26 09:38:23	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	No	SELL	78	15¢	$12	0xd8bc67…
05-26 08:33:24	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	No	BUY	78	21¢	$16	0x05bf8b…
05-26 08:23:29	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x21680f…
05-26 08:21:30	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xc2dead…
05-25 13:29:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xd6b564…
05-25 13:29:36	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x11e482…
05-22 12:54:26	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x767617…
05-21 06:56:22	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0xdd1cbb…
05-21 05:14:45	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xd942be…
05-20 03:24:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x446c1c…
05-20 03:06:58	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x77bf1c…
05-20 03:06:42	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xf12e47…
05-20 03:06:28	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x23b95a…
05-19 13:55:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x99b3d1…
05-19 13:49:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0x04fd47…
05-19 13:10:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x1f1d42…
05-13 13:35:18	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	No	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0x1dd701…
05-13 13:34:52	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x46ad81…
05-13 13:32:04	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0x44b3c0…
05-13 13:31:43	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xc53098…
05-13 13:31:16	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?	No	SELL	50	72¢	$36	0xf30148…
05-13 13:30:33	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x0ddac9…
05-13 13:30:13	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0xdbdcd1…
05-13 13:28:39	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x9c8bda…
05-08 11:42:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$195	0xd22f00…
05-08 11:03:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	167	97¢	$162	0x426f96…
05-08 10:08:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x89d3f2…
05-08 09:55:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x5adc08…
05-08 09:27:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	500	5¢	$26	0xc12fff…
05-08 09:14:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	115	4¢	$4	0xd2dd29…
05-08 09:10:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0xa800c8…
05-08 09:03:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	878	4¢	$32	0x1268f4…
05-08 08:34:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x7c94bd…
05-08 07:58:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$39	0xa06874…
05-08 07:46:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	440	5¢	$23	0x034683…
05-08 07:45:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x6c2417…
04-30 12:44:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	250	97¢	$242	0xa1faab…
04-30 12:40:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x6b3002…
04-30 12:12:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0x5886b9…
04-30 11:57:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	16	97¢	$16	0x3ba2af…
04-30 11:57:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	90	97¢	$88	0x220ad1…
04-30 11:42:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	205	97¢	$199	0x1c4779…
04-30 11:37:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	124	97¢	$121	0xf30c14…
04-30 10:43:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	171	97¢	$166	0xa45403…
04-30 08:32:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	74	99¢	$73	0xaf09c1…
04-30 08:30:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	350	99¢	$345	0x1789eb…
04-30 08:27:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	76	99¢	$75	0x9d08a0…
04-30 08:11:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	190	99¢	$188	0x2a7986…
04-30 07:54:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x597acf…
04-30 07:50:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	97	99¢	$96	0x8cc6c8…
04-30 07:44:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$10	0x0c7442…
04-30 07:22:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xec2eb9…
04-30 07:19:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0xbc128d…
04-30 07:09:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	128	99¢	$126	0xd98247…
04-29 17:22:40	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0xc578cd…
04-29 17:08:48	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8d91c3…
04-29 16:54:52	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	No	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x69d1e2…
04-29 16:54:40	Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference?	No	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0x6ce656…
04-29 16:54:30	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xa2eebb…
04-29 16:45:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	500	99¢	$494	0x856e84…
04-29 16:19:54	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	366	99¢	$361	0xd82d98…
04-29 16:19:00	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xf1346f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	56	$15.0M	15,633	06-10 00:09
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	56	$602.0K	8,408	06-09 19:58
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	53	$4.90K	1,061	06-09 20:47
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	50	$154.9K	838	06-09 14:07
Confused-Liner 0x38a6…9110	44	$9.74K	142	06-09 11:11
Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44	42	$3.23K	1,972	06-09 08:48
Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f	41	$3.90K	2,123	06-09 13:25
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	40	$198.3K	13,352	06-09 12:04