Taut-Samovar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.5%

Resolved

Trades

274

lifetime

Volume

$13.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 07-23 10:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

45% 100% +$0

Other

35% — —

Tech

15% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-2

Crypto

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$1.5K	760	760	+0	open	—	04-10 05:17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	15	$1.4K	780	780	+0	open	—	04-10 12:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	04-06 06:04
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$1.1K	774	774	+0	open	—	04-22 02:14
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$1.1K	700	700	+0	open	—	04-18 01:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	11	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-08 09:27
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$988	500	500	+0	open	—	04-29 16:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	10	$987	500	500	+0	open	—	04-30 08:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$577	300	300	+0	open	—	04-02 07:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$391	200	200	+0	open	—	05-08 09:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	3	$389	200	200	+0	No	+$0	05-08 11:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$194	98	98	+0	open	—	03-30 06:05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 13:55
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	10	$137	120	125	-5	open	—	03-11 15:17
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$126	63	63	+0	open	—	03-27 12:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$100	50	50	+0	open	—	03-27 12:50
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	2	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	05-13 13:30
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	2	$82	100	100	+0	open	—	03-24 10:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$75	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-08 09:14
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May?	2	$72	50	50	+0	open	—	05-13 13:31
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?	2	$63	32	32	+0	open	—	03-02 11:28
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-25 13:29
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	03-27 12:50
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$59	30	30	+0	open	—	03-02 11:28
will the announcers say history during the germany vs ivory coast fifa world cup match 20260618175650879	5	$57	40	40	+0	open	—	06-19 05:34
will gold gc settle over 7000 on the final trading day of march 2026	2	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	03-28 13:12
will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	03-24 15:44
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$50	25	25	+0	open	—	03-30 06:06
will the announcers say comeback or come back during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033322	4	$47	40	40	+0	open	—	06-24 10:19
will open reach 6 00 in june 2026	2	$46	50	50	+0	open	—	06-04 05:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 10:09:01	will jon bernthal or tom holland say world cup on hot ones 20260721145535508	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x1d89e1…
07-23 10:05:10	will anyone say energy during big brother e8 20260720170215712	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x026dfa…
07-23 10:03:34	will anyone say energy during big brother e8 20260720170215712	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x8687da…
07-23 09:26:10	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 2pt5t cny 20260722211138917	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x8c4dde…
07-23 09:25:43	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be above 2pt5t cny 20260722211138917	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xae2f98…
07-23 08:47:30	will jon bernthal or tom holland say soccer on hot ones 20260721145535507	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x5588cf…
07-23 08:38:27	will jon bernthal or tom holland say world cup on hot ones 20260721145535508	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x568cf6…
07-23 08:33:42	will jon bernthal or tom holland say spider or spider man 5 times on hot ones 20260721145535500	No	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x790e64…
07-23 08:32:48	will jon bernthal or tom holland say soccer on hot ones 20260721145535507	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x4e2e21…
07-23 08:32:34	will jon bernthal or tom holland say spider or spider man 5 times on hot ones 20260721145535500	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x5c92f2…
07-22 06:12:40	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xcdf148…
07-22 06:10:33	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by december 31 20260722053445711	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xae3d40…
07-22 06:08:45	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0xecfd69…
07-22 06:08:04	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x3655fa…
07-22 06:06:21	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc15fcd…
07-22 06:02:43	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0xfb597d…
07-22 06:02:16	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x300860…
07-22 05:51:30	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xce53c2…
07-22 05:50:52	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x6c703f…
07-22 05:43:42	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xeb8fb1…
07-22 05:43:33	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x527bfc…
07-22 05:35:49	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x64338c…
07-22 05:27:22	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xdc0441…
07-22 05:22:25	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xf0cc04…
07-22 05:20:42	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xa14c3a…
07-21 09:28:28	will trump say first term during remarks in georgia 20260720190340720	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x1ddde3…
07-21 09:27:28	will trump say first term during remarks in georgia 20260720190340720	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xdc3f78…
07-21 09:13:24	over 20m committed to the ripcars public sale 20260720205129608	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x6c76f9…
07-21 09:13:10	will trump say supreme court during remarks in georgia 20260720190340724	Yes	SELL	3	17¢	$1	0x65f3ba…
07-21 08:52:34	will trump say supreme court during remarks in georgia 20260720190340724	Yes	SELL	17	44¢	$7	0x03f616…
07-21 08:51:55	will trump say supreme court during remarks in georgia 20260720190340724	Yes	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x0bb61c…
07-21 08:51:46	will trump say supreme court during remarks in georgia 20260720190340724	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcecb79…
07-08 03:31:44	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260707223722048	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x9bec78…
07-08 03:28:20	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260707223722048	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x9caaf0…
07-08 03:19:20	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260707223722049	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xeb9f71…
07-08 03:18:38	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260707223722049	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xf18b2b…
07-08 03:16:43	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260707223722049	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xb0812a…
07-08 03:16:35	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x005f9e…
07-08 03:16:07	iran successfully targets shipping by august 31 20260707223722049	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x40966d…
07-08 03:15:52	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xcd2163…
07-08 03:04:08	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during press conference 20260707192103065	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xfe4d3a…
07-08 03:03:32	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during press conference 20260707192103065	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x6e6575…
07-08 03:02:49	will vahn lackey be drafted in the top 3 in the 2026 mlb draft 20260706183245877	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x4a15b9…
07-08 02:58:56	will vahn lackey be drafted in the top 3 in the 2026 mlb draft 20260706183245877	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x16ea1c…
06-24 10:47:10	will the announcers say assist during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646396	No	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xda182e…
06-24 10:47:01	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by july 31 20260623155722752	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xf95e0f…
06-24 10:45:56	will the announcers say assist during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646396	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xee7eec…
06-24 10:45:55	will the next prime minister of romania be appointed by july 31 20260623155722752	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x7908b1…
06-24 10:28:47	will the announcers say handball during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033318	No	SELL	13	36¢	$5	0x91240a…
06-24 10:28:10	will the announcers say handball during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033318	No	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0x96ca89…
06-24 10:26:22	will the announcers say qatar during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859849	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x36f30c…
06-24 10:22:40	will the announcers say qatar during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859849	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x0964c5…
06-24 10:19:49	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033322	Yes	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x1e52de…
06-24 10:18:29	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033322	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xf52fef…
06-24 09:54:14	will the announcers say record during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033319	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x7ad55b…
06-24 09:53:44	will the announcers say record during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033319	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x796ab0…
06-24 09:49:50	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033322	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xe254a5…
06-24 09:49:35	will the announcers say comeback or come back during the south africa vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260623170033322	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xc2d64b…
06-24 09:46:55	will the announcers say temperature during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809443	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x88d44d…
06-24 09:46:14	will the announcers say temperature during the japan vs sweden fifa world cup match 20260623181809443	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xc8125e…
06-24 09:37:28	will the announcers say goal 40 times during the turkiye vs usa fifa world cup match 20260623182415015	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x75ace1…
06-24 09:35:17	will the announcers say goal 40 times during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859843	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x217af6…
06-19 05:39:22	will the announcers say what a save during the spain vs saudi arabia fifa world cup match 20260618180505071	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x9145c9…
06-19 05:38:56	will the announcers say what a save during the spain vs saudi arabia fifa world cup match 20260618180505071	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x0beecf…
06-19 05:34:22	will the announcers say history during the germany vs ivory coast fifa world cup match 20260618175650879	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x18c212…
06-19 05:30:44	will the announcers say history during the germany vs ivory coast fifa world cup match 20260618175650879	Yes	BUY	18	70¢	$13	0xdf9d36…
06-19 05:30:08	will the announcers say history during the germany vs ivory coast fifa world cup match 20260618175650879	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xfc5a62…
06-19 05:27:31	will the announcers say history during the germany vs ivory coast fifa world cup match 20260618175650879	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x48c7e2…
06-19 05:24:49	will the announcers say history during the germany vs ivory coast fifa world cup match 20260618175650879	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x49287c…
06-09 11:11:07	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	800	1¢	$6	0x21bdf0…
06-07 18:00:09	Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$10	0xd4cfb4…
06-07 17:59:58	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xd71ec3…
06-07 17:59:49	ebola pandemic in 2026	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x47426d…
06-04 05:26:37	will open reach 6 00 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x241e19…
06-04 05:21:21	will open reach 6 00 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x5da94f…
06-04 05:19:15	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0x5d2302…
06-04 05:15:01	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	2¢	$20	0x7693a2…
06-04 03:54:28	will spy reach 770 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x29392c…
06-04 03:22:55	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	182	3¢	$6	0x73e9bd…
06-03 20:26:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xe50ec3…
05-31 19:08:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$10	0xbf0bcd…
05-31 15:21:15	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xccdcf5…
05-31 15:21:10	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	74	3¢	$2	0x2273c2…
05-31 15:04:06	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xecbc7c…
05-31 14:58:06	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	236	7¢	$17	0x59c8bf…
05-31 14:50:38	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	82	3¢	$2	0x75cac2…
05-31 14:44:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x29fd1d…
05-31 00:16:30	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x8babdd…
05-30 13:30:47	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	236	7¢	$17	0xdb9f85…
05-30 10:46:31	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xda86bd…
05-30 10:22:10	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xf01bd2…
05-30 10:20:42	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x58e070…
05-30 10:16:44	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x52af43…
05-30 10:12:58	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0xb10b41…
05-30 10:12:43	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x5f30c3…
05-30 10:11:31	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x916bbb…
05-30 10:11:13	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x5c4313…
05-30 10:11:12	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x66c27c…
05-30 10:11:12	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0x0e8473…
05-30 10:10:16	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa0c8ed…