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Realized P&L (30d)
-$156
Unrealized P&L
+$20
Hit rate
59.1%
Resolved (30d)
323
Trades (30d)
1,094
1,094 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$4.43K
$4.43K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$251
24 positions
First seen
2026-10-15
last 11-08 19:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 25 days
Categories
Other
50% 44% -$98
Politics
32% 52% -$51
Crypto
7% 40% -$20
Tech
6% 100% +$19
Sports
4% 47% -$6
Pop-Culture
0% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
25 active days in 12wk • peak 121 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on November 8? No +96 $87 90¢ $87 $0 11-08 18:12
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election? Yes +50 $34 100¢ $50 +$16 11-03 23:52
Gemini Carbon released by November 10, 2026? Yes +58 $25 62¢ $36 +$11 11-08 15:01
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat? Yes +21 $8 99¢ $21 +$13 11-03 09:06
Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand? Yes +18 $16 75¢ $14 -$3 11-08 04:18
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes +20 $18 36¢ $7 -$11 11-03 21:33
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? Yes +58 $7 11¢ $6 -$1 11-08 10:46
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat? No +5 $3 95¢ $5 +$2 10-30 18:19
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? Yes +10 $5 46¢ $5 -$1 10-25 13:41
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? No +27 -$6 16¢ $4 +$10 11-07 10:46
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat? No +80 $4 5¢ $4 +$0 11-07 05:57
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026? Yes +20 $3 15¢ $3 $0 11-07 16:47
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? Yes +5 $2 36¢ $2 +$0 11-07 16:03
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? No +4 $10 43¢ $2 -$8 11-08 20:44
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-02 House election? Yes +10 $2 15¢ $1 $0 11-04 22:32
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? Yes +5 $2 30¢ $1 $0 11-07 04:31
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes +70 $1 1¢ $1 $0 11-07 19:44
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $304 in November? Yes +5 $2 11¢ $1 -$1 10-27 06:55
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? Yes +3 $1 18¢ $1 $0 10-28 20:11
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? No +6 $1 8¢ $0 $0 11-07 02:36
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-09 House election? No +20 $4 2¢ $0 -$4 11-04 01:10
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in November? Yes +5 $1 6¢ $0 -$1 10-27 08:41
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $392 in November? Yes +5 $2 5¢ $0 -$1 10-27 06:41
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No +2 $1 1¢ $0 -$1 11-07 08:35