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Realized P&L (90d)
-$153
Unrealized P&L
+$13
Hit rate
59.1%
Resolved (90d)
319
Trades (90d)
1,065
1,065 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$4.16K
$4.16K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$182
21 positions
First seen
2026-10-15
last 11-08 01:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 24 days
Categories
Other
49% 45% -$96
Politics
34% 51% -$51
Tech
6% 100% +$19
Crypto
5% 40% -$20
Sports
5% 47% -$6
Pop-Culture
0% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
25 active days in 12wk • peak 121 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand? Yes +68 $57 86¢ $59 +$1 11-07 10:42
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election? Yes +50 $34 100¢ $50 +$16 11-03 23:52
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat? Yes +21 $8 99¢ $21 +$13 11-03 09:06
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? No +20 $17 48¢ $10 -$7 11-08 01:07
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? Yes +80 $10 12¢ $9 -$1 11-07 19:27
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes — +20 $18 25¢ $5 -$13 11-03 21:33
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? No +27 -$6 18¢ $5 +$11 11-07 10:46
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat? No +5 $3 94¢ $5 +$2 10-30 18:19
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026? Yes +20 $3 19¢ $4 +$1 11-07 16:47
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat? No +80 $4 4¢ $4 +$0 11-07 05:57
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? Yes +10 $5 36¢ $4 -$2 10-25 13:41
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? Yes +5 $2 40¢ $2 +$0 11-07 16:03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-02 House election? Yes +10 $2 15¢ $1 $0 11-04 22:32
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? Yes +5 $2 30¢ $1 $0 11-07 04:31
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes +70 $1 1¢ $1 -$1 11-07 19:44
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $304 in November? Yes +5 $2 11¢ $1 -$1 10-27 06:55
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? No +6 $1 10¢ $1 $0 11-07 02:36
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? Yes +3 $1 18¢ $1 $0 10-28 20:11
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-09 House election? No +20 $4 2¢ $0 -$4 11-04 01:10
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in November? Yes +5 $1 6¢ $0 -$1 10-27 08:41
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No +2 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 11-07 08:35