Positive-Wrong-Prejudice — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47

Unrealized P&L

+$43

Hit rate

96.7%

Resolved

292

Trades

518

lifetime

Volume

$158.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$305

Open exposure

$406

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 11-03 00:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

91% 58% -$266

Politics

4% 100% +$19

Crypto

3% 90% +$89

Sports

1% 82% +$102

Tech

0% 100% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?	Yes		+463	$353	86¢	$398	+$45	10-30 18:05
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	Yes		+12	$10	72¢	$8	-$2	11-02 06:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	13	$18.4K	9,216	9,216	+0	No	+$33	07-15 16:00
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	4	$15.0K	10,010	5,010	+5,000	No	+$22	08-14 05:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	39	$13.7K	6,883	6,883	+0	No	+$82	05-31 20:58
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	10	$13.4K	6,726	6,726	+0	No	+$65	06-19 05:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	17	$11.9K	6,540	5,427	+1,113	No	+$40	05-15 17:05
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	8	$10.3K	10,361	0	+10,361	No	+$23	06-02 13:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$8.8K	7,051	1,763	+5,288	No	+$40	07-31 17:07
will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	10	$7.0K	3,490	3,490	+0	No	+$11	07-31 18:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	2	$6.0K	3,009	3,009	+0	No	+$6	09-15 22:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$4.9K	4,724	215	+4,509	No	+$19	07-04 04:27
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1?	2	$4.8K	4,804	0	+4,804	No	+$5	05-21 03:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	6	$4.0K	4,023	15	+4,008	No	+$13	06-03 23:43
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	5	$3.2K	1,602	1,602	+0	No	+$2	06-02 13:29
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 5?	2	$2.6K	2,560	0	+2,560	No	+$3	05-21 13:07
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?	2	$2.5K	2,508	0	+2,508	No	+$8	05-21 03:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$2.5K	2,491	0	+2,491	Yes	+$2	06-17 09:18
will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	2	$2.4K	2,453	0	+2,453	Yes	+$5	07-15 19:55
will russia capture pokrovka by december 31	3	$2.0K	2,012	0	+2,012	Yes	+$2	07-15 18:47
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	1	$2.0K	2,004	0	+2,004	Yes	+$4	07-21 16:53
Will MrBeast hit 122.5 billion views by May 31?	5	$1.9K	1,898	0	+1,898	Yes	+$7	05-16 01:35
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$1.6K	803	803	+0	No	-$30	06-22 00:03
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	4	$1.0K	1,053	0	+1,053	Yes	+$8	06-05 08:33
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	2	$1.0K	581	581	+0	open	—	07-17 05:43
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$1000	1,003	0	+1,003	No	+$3	06-22 00:16
Set Handicap: Tabilo (-2.5) vs Kouame (+2.5)	4	$809	407	407	+0	Kouame	+$2	05-30 17:06
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	5	$694	697	0	+697	Yes	+$2	08-09 14:57
Will RISEx launch a token by September 30, 2026?	5	$588	299	299	+0	No	-$2	09-15 22:18
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 61 million views on day 6?	1	$500	501	0	+501	No	+$1	05-22 02:22
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	1	$500	502	0	+502	No	+$2	06-26 13:30
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$1	07-14 18:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 00:35:37	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	12	95¢	$12	0xe30837…
11-03 00:27:36	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xfaf8bd…
11-03 00:04:34	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x164e21…
11-02 06:51:39	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	53¢	$16	0x65dc31…
11-02 06:51:12	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	36¢	$11	0x3aac33…
11-02 06:43:49	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x0e089e…
11-02 06:43:42	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x9efa0a…
11-02 06:43:39	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x8cc7ed…
11-02 06:43:36	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xfe31a7…
11-02 06:43:30	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0xe6a643…
11-02 06:43:24	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0xe47aed…
11-02 06:43:01	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x78b5cd…
11-02 06:42:46	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x6a7d54…
11-02 06:42:19	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	28	60¢	$17	0xc86fbb…
11-02 06:27:19	Will CZ post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x980c68…
11-02 06:00:03	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xaf600b…
10-30 18:05:22	Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x2368e3…
10-30 05:55:04	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	12¢	$10	0xc41a37…
10-30 04:49:34	Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?	Yes	BUY	443	76¢	$336	0xf275e9…
10-08 18:38:30	Will Dignitas make a roster change by December?	No	SELL	342	1¢	$3	0xcc2ab3…
10-08 16:52:56	Will Dignitas make a roster change by December?	No	BUY	680	5¢	$32	0xc1b9fc…
10-08 16:21:02	Will Dignitas make a roster change by December?	No	BUY	140	75¢	$105	0xa0d240…
09-30 17:15:09	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 28 and 28.5 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x1b02bb…
09-23 00:11:59	Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 5?	Yes	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0x14464d…
09-22 19:34:12	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 35 by September 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xc773e6…
09-22 04:25:49	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by September 30?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xf1af87…
09-22 04:25:36	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by September 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xe6a392…
09-22 04:24:57	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 45 by September 30?	No	BUY	18	80¢	$14	0xa5d378…
09-22 04:23:54	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 45 by September 30?	No	BUY	21	79¢	$16	0xadca60…
09-22 00:28:18	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by September 30?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x8c75ae…
09-22 00:27:31	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by September 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x07afc0…
09-15 22:18:54	Will RISEx launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	189	93¢	$176	0xe4bc2f…
09-15 22:18:18	Will RISEx launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	299	98¢	$293	0xd5f377…
09-15 22:16:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	No	SELL	3,009	100¢	$3,006	0x708422…
09-11 01:43:28	Set 2 Winner: Gauff vs Rybakina	Rybakina	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xc36cc6…
09-11 01:41:49	Will RISEx launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	136	98¢	$134	0xb65619…
09-10 18:09:54	Will RISEx launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x9805c2…
09-10 18:09:51	Will RISEx launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0x07115c…
09-10 18:09:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	No	BUY	3,009	100¢	$3,000	0x36e19e…
08-24 01:31:19	Will MrBeast hit 139.5 billion views by August 31?	No	BUY	148	98¢	$145	0x3cb7cf…
08-24 01:30:40	Will MrBeast hit 518 million subscribers by August 31?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x06fb2a…
08-22 03:13:09	will risex launch a token by september 30 2026 20260708174012703	No	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0xadf68c…
08-22 03:11:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	18¢	$108	0x04c2b3…
08-22 03:11:04	will risex launch a token by december 31 2026 20260708174012704	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xc24af1…
08-22 03:10:54	will risex launch a token by december 31 2026 20260708174012704	No	BUY	114	97¢	$110	0xf499d9…
08-14 05:21:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	5,010	100¢	$5,005	0x4c1088…
08-10 09:28:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0xe01e5c…
08-10 07:34:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,991	0x29dcf1…
08-10 03:13:31	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x29a668…
08-10 03:10:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	5,010	100¢	$5,000	0xa04f39…
08-10 03:06:42	Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	304	99¢	$300	0x3ae1ff…
08-09 14:57:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	176	99¢	$175	0xa78606…
08-09 14:15:06	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x94fe4c…
08-09 12:26:49	Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	No	BUY	205	100¢	$205	0x777dd8…
08-09 12:26:43	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0x8eea8b…
08-09 12:26:39	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	257	100¢	$257	0x3ee90a…
08-09 12:12:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x679b81…
08-01 00:44:02	no confidence vote against spain pm sanchez by july 31 20260626194611633	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0x17b292…
07-31 19:02:29	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396 786	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x4c5cde…
07-31 18:54:05	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	SELL	143	100¢	$143	0x3b997f…
07-31 18:52:02	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	SELL	3,347	100¢	$3,344	0xd44f37…
07-31 17:10:57	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0xc3bc9d…
07-31 17:07:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,763	100¢	$1,761	0xda09e5…
07-30 00:51:29	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	BUY	2,490	100¢	$2,485	0x643a28…
07-29 02:51:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xbfabce…
07-28 05:15:49	will risex launch a token by december 31 2026 20260708174012704	No	BUY	38	78¢	$29	0xf9f528…
07-27 16:32:25	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xb2463b…
07-27 06:51:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0x5ba76d…
07-27 01:00:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	402	99¢	$400	0x4b8d38…
07-27 01:00:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x010da7…
07-27 01:00:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	503	99¢	$500	0x9a9bda…
07-27 00:11:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,005	99¢	$1,000	0x73cfbb…
07-27 00:11:22	will mrbeast hit 136 billion views by july 31 20260623145506504	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x221ff7…
07-26 13:56:21	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396 786	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x94cbff…
07-25 17:48:00	Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?	No	BUY	185	100¢	$185	0xfc2a76…
07-25 17:21:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$992	0x741c33…
07-25 15:19:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0x708587…
07-25 11:47:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,010	100¢	$2,000	0x01f881…
07-25 11:46:30	will risex launch a token by december 31 2026 20260708174012704	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x402c4f…
07-21 17:06:15	Will MrBeast get married by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x9961c3…
07-21 17:00:48	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7333bf…
07-21 16:53:13	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	2,004	100¢	$2,000	0x9b5ad3…
07-19 04:11:45	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7b3809…
07-19 01:11:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	557	33¢	$184	0x5ae754…
07-18 22:54:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x5d0293…
07-18 21:09:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x3ba46e…
07-18 21:01:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xe04941…
07-18 20:22:00	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	BUY	186	99¢	$184	0x2b6fdd…
07-18 19:02:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x4fd4b6…
07-18 14:30:33	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x319fc8…
07-18 08:16:21	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	BUY	210	99¢	$208	0xc2283e…
07-17 17:17:40	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655084 912 671	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x2a9f29…
07-17 12:46:04	Will 175 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	SELL	156	100¢	$155	0x10618a…
07-17 06:43:15	Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x806462…
07-17 05:43:19	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	581	90¢	$523	0x81eb33…
07-17 02:31:15	Will 175 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?	No	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0x25acca…
07-15 19:55:35	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	Yes	BUY	362	100¢	$361	0x245387…
07-15 18:47:22	will russia capture pokrovka by december 31	Yes	BUY	1,001	100¢	$1,000	0xa79871…
07-15 18:47:16	will russia capture pokrovka by december 31	Yes	BUY	1,001	100¢	$1,000	0xf8abcc…
07-15 18:46:53	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	Yes	BUY	2,091	100¢	$2,087	0x43e60e…