Favorable-Density — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$291

Unrealized P&L

-$199

Hit rate

98.7%

Resolved

Trades

3,058

lifetime

Volume

$1.13M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$369

Open exposure

$10.3K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-24 19:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

89% 100% +$214

Other

11% 100% +$36

Sports

0% 33% +$41

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No		-11,241	$-10,137	92¢	$-10336	$-199	06-24 19:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	59	$86.3K	43,923	43,923	+0	open	—	03-01 23:19
will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	124	$56.7K	56,750	13,091	+43,659	open	—	03-04 23:12
will iran strike israel on march 10	45	$34.7K	19,158	19,158	+0	open	—	03-10 20:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	22	$29.2K	26,344	4,325	+22,019	open	—	03-15 19:34
iran strike on israel by february 28	55	$28.0K	15,242	14,920	+322	open	—	02-28 17:33
will israel strike gaza on march 5 2026	50	$27.5K	27,971	215	+27,756	open	—	03-09 00:02
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	11	$27.0K	28,397	0	+28,397	open	—	02-28 06:20
will israel strike gaza on march 7 2026	92	$26.4K	16,204	16,514	-310	open	—	03-08 21:40
will iran strike israel on march 6	29	$24.2K	12,481	12,481	+0	open	—	03-10 17:38
will iran strike israel on march 4	168	$24.0K	28,258	30,431	-2,173	open	—	03-06 19:53
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	34	$21.7K	13,742	13,625	+117	open	—	04-11 21:59
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	6	$19.0K	12,074	8,166	+3,909	open	—	06-16 07:39
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	12	$18.4K	18,716	0	+18,716	open	—	06-07 22:16
will israel strike gaza on march 6 2026	63	$17.9K	16,802	2,011	+14,791	open	—	03-09 23:46
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	11	$15.5K	10,351	9,409	+943	open	—	02-28 07:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	29	$15.3K	8,007	8,007	+0	open	—	04-25 18:39
will khamenei tweet again on march 17 2026 723 397	32	$14.0K	10,139	3,880	+6,258	open	—	03-17 12:33
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	8	$13.8K	13,846	0	+13,846	open	—	03-01 13:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	16	$13.4K	6,763	6,763	+0	open	—	05-27 14:22
will khamenei tweet again on march 16 2026 714 288	21	$13.3K	12,338	1,000	+11,338	open	—	03-16 22:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	14	$12.8K	6,699	6,699	+0	open	—	05-11 21:03
israel closes its airspace by june 8	18	$12.5K	12,760	0	+12,760	open	—	06-08 21:05
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	16	$12.3K	12,136	583	+11,553	open	—	03-08 21:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	5	$12.2K	6,231	6,047	+184	open	—	04-27 07:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	5	$12.1K	6,119	6,119	+0	open	—	04-26 07:55
US military draft authorized in 2026?	19	$12.0K	1,000	12,241	-11,241	open	—	06-24 19:36
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 5 9144	2	$11.9K	12,087	0	+12,087	open	—	06-05 15:46
will iran strike israel on march 9	9	$11.5K	11,523	0	+11,523	open	—	03-09 11:44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	7	$11.4K	11,598	0	+11,598	open	—	05-27 21:29
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	11	$10.8K	6,875	6,875	+0	open	—	03-05 16:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 19:36:56	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	760	91¢	$694	0x57fd0f…
06-23 20:43:13	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	571	79¢	$450	0x32421e…
06-23 20:42:44	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x6f61e0…
06-23 20:42:43	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	33	79¢	$26	0xcd5c6f…
06-23 20:42:41	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0xb10e2b…
06-23 20:42:38	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xdef305…
06-23 15:45:08	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	2,470	92¢	$2,275	0x8bdd66…
06-22 19:01:26	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 btts second half	No	BUY	74	99¢	$73	0x73ed85…
06-21 20:16:28	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	92¢	$921	0x3803c5…
06-17 12:19:55	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	293	91¢	$266	0xa4721a…
06-17 10:48:07	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	108	68¢	$73	0xaddda5…
06-17 10:47:40	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	329	68¢	$224	0x6edb87…
06-17 10:47:19	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	45	68¢	$30	0xb41a86…
06-17 10:47:11	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0x2f6519…
06-17 07:25:38	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	496	70¢	$347	0x03de11…
06-17 07:25:20	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x76781d…
06-17 06:46:20	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0xa3dcf0…
06-16 22:20:10	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	171	86¢	$147	0x539114…
06-16 21:58:47	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	204	82¢	$168	0xf9c1cc…
06-16 21:54:41	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	32	80¢	$25	0x573aef…
06-16 21:54:35	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	32	80¢	$25	0x1a30e6…
06-16 21:54:11	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	854	82¢	$700	0x826ec3…
06-16 14:22:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,286	93¢	$3,056	0x98b8b8…
06-16 11:35:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	162	94¢	$152	0xf15af3…
06-16 11:35:06	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	170	89¢	$151	0xa966e2…
06-16 10:38:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x45cb93…
06-16 10:38:18	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	750	93¢	$698	0x25f296…
06-16 10:34:01	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,700	93¢	$1,581	0xca72c4…
06-16 10:27:33	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0xc6ec4a…
06-16 10:27:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0xc2a929…
06-16 10:27:25	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0xd9b99b…
06-16 10:27:12	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0xed22a3…
06-16 10:26:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0xf85a78…
06-16 10:26:48	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	93¢	$133	0x68b7cd…
06-16 10:26:43	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	93¢	$133	0x24938c…
06-16 10:26:37	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	93¢	$133	0xb7e346…
06-16 10:26:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x93a2ce…
06-16 07:39:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,014	96¢	$2,906	0x72ce8d…
06-16 07:39:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,986	96¢	$1,914	0x67ed1f…
06-15 22:47:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	8,166	95¢	$7,725	0xda41dc…
06-15 15:30:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,417	94¢	$3,209	0x35a061…
06-15 15:29:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	3,255	99¢	$3,209	0x7ee092…
06-15 09:16:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,204	88¢	$1,061	0x962dc4…
06-15 09:14:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,452	88¢	$2,159	0x380bda…
06-15 09:13:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	999	97¢	$971	0x0ee551…
06-15 09:13:16	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	1,296	92¢	$1,187	0x9e4ba7…
06-14 07:51:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	559	94¢	$525	0xbe799d…
06-14 07:50:36	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	610	86¢	$525	0x94b4d5…
06-14 07:48:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1,268	93¢	$1,175	0x3dd28d…
06-14 07:48:00	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	1,346	87¢	$1,174	0xa27358…
06-13 22:12:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	906	92¢	$833	0x10f8e2…
06-13 22:11:42	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	955	87¢	$833	0x5013f7…
06-13 22:02:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	551	92¢	$507	0x3f49c7…
06-13 22:02:19	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	575	88¢	$506	0x4fa6e5…
06-13 17:06:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1,971	92¢	$1,813	0x64246f…
06-13 13:27:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x5d32e9…
06-12 15:59:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	656	94¢	$619	0x4003a3…
06-12 15:58:33	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	694	89¢	$619	0xa826e6…
06-12 15:51:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	466	94¢	$436	0x4d2a95…
06-12 02:41:40	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	190	92¢	$175	0x81daad…
06-10 18:57:33	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	179	92¢	$164	0xaa6e71…
06-10 16:02:45	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x0588bf…
06-10 07:04:30	US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x12b9d5…
06-09 11:43:48	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	279	99¢	$276	0x872a6e…
06-09 11:43:16	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	SELL	763	96¢	$734	0x266308…
06-09 11:41:37	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0x2890f6…
06-09 11:40:30	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,329	94¢	$1,250	0xaa56d6…
06-08 22:58:37	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$960	0xdbcd6f…
06-08 21:39:16	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x7ce765…
06-08 21:38:00	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	144	97¢	$139	0x9d9532…
06-08 21:36:39	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0x1fd625…
06-08 21:29:18	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0xefe70c…
06-08 21:28:18	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x31548f…
06-08 21:27:10	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0xbfbbb1…
06-08 21:26:31	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x914c56…
06-08 21:24:18	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	71	97¢	$69	0x2ebe86…
06-08 21:21:10	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x1d3583…
06-08 21:18:54	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x4a95f6…
06-08 21:05:33	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,995	99¢	$1,972	0xc46393…
06-08 21:01:12	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	5	99¢	$4	0x95ab52…
06-08 20:53:18	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,750	99¢	$1,729	0xa6fc8c…
06-08 20:53:01	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	250	99¢	$247	0x84f83c…
06-08 20:51:15	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,978	0xfe3a31…
06-08 20:50:04	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,158	99¢	$1,148	0x2edb0e…
06-08 20:48:16	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x121dc7…
06-08 20:47:09	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0x9fe36b…
06-08 20:39:58	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	67	99¢	$66	0xb6b6fc…
06-08 20:02:22	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	213	99¢	$211	0x974814…
06-08 19:57:55	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$963	0x60e888…
06-08 19:41:15	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	228	99¢	$226	0x6db101…
06-08 19:39:52	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0xd45bfb…
06-08 19:39:42	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	417	96¢	$400	0x086f2e…
06-08 19:34:37	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	125	99¢	$123	0x2b1100…
06-08 17:25:13	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	SELL	100	94¢	$95	0x03d538…
06-08 15:27:13	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	783	96¢	$753	0x644ebb…
06-08 15:27:13	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	217	96¢	$209	0x62419e…
06-08 14:29:01	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	76	94¢	$72	0x0a67cd…
06-08 14:14:01	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	495	93¢	$462	0x144d78…
06-08 14:11:13	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	447	91¢	$406	0xabf9a6…
06-08 14:10:06	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	798	96¢	$764	0x590c1e…