Realized P&L (90d)
+$7.54K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.96K
Hit rate
87.6%
Resolved (90d)
418
Trades (90d)
5,174
26,392 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$601.9K
$4.37M lifetime
Avg / trade
$166
Open exposure
$18.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-30 12:29
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 279 days
Categories
Politics
46% 84% +$26,842
Other
45% 83% +$22,264
Sports
5% 85% +$4,640
Crypto
3% 84% -$2,596
Tech
2% 91% +$2,031
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 134 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,888 $2,641 94¢ $2.7K +$60 10-25 10:36
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +3,000 $2,207 70¢ $2.1K -$122 10-18 10:54
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No +1,989 $1,171 88¢ $1.8K +$589 10-28 14:48
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? Yes +1,404 -$643 84¢ $1.2K +$1,815 10-30 12:12
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No -1,143 -$999 98¢ $-1116 -$117 07-20 03:24
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,110 $976 92¢ $1.0K +$40 10-29 17:52
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? Yes +1,111 $1,038 91¢ $1.0K -$32 10-30 10:23
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918 No +1,333 $894 74¢ $980 +$85 10-30 06:47
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1,333 $823 72¢ $953 +$130 10-22 14:48
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917 Yes +1,000 $701 94¢ $935 +$234 10-30 12:29
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +903 $716 85¢ $767 +$51 10-30 12:28
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +999 $675 70¢ $704 +$29 10-30 04:42
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +666 $480 78¢ $516 +$37 10-29 11:49
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +666 $501 70¢ $470 -$31 10-25 06:29
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes +555 $338 64¢ $358 +$20 10-30 06:07
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes -236 -$287 96¢ $-227 +$60 07-15 12:17
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +250 $180 78¢ $194 +$14 10-29 11:49
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +222 $152 70¢ $157 +$4 10-25 03:56
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +200 $79 56¢ $113 +$34 10-17 02:34
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? No +111 $84 98¢ $109 +$26 10-25 15:33
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +111 $99 97¢ $108 +$9 09-29 02:39
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No +111 $103 96¢ $107 +$3 10-29 17:17
Iran leadership change by November 30? No +111 $102 90¢ $100 -$2 10-27 10:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? No +100 $87 94¢ $94 +$6 10-23 14:55
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +111 $91 82¢ $90 -$1 10-25 03:27
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? No +111 $83 76¢ $85 +$2 10-29 04:46
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +111 $56 70¢ $78 +$22 10-30 11:34
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +84 $60 71¢ $60 -$1 10-03 01:57
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes +66 $41 55¢ $36 -$5 10-28 13:34
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes +1,111 $27 3¢ $31 +$4 10-23 11:00