Sinful-Cupcake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8.72K

Unrealized P&L

-$49

Hit rate

59.0%

Resolved

1,541

Trades

6,547

lifetime

Volume

$306.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

$121

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-30 14:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 251 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 47% -$7,281

Other

36% 37% -$2,802

Politics

8% 47% +$714

Sports

2% 44% +$652

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	+248	$80	38¢	$95	+$15	10-30 05:33
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	+241	$30	11¢	$25	-$5	10-30 05:33
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	+581	$60	0¢	$1	-$59	10-30 14:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	23	$6.0K	11,644	11,644	+0	No	-$888	03-29 08:01
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	47	$5.8K	9,105	9,243	-138	No	+$1,155	03-27 07:06
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	16	$5.5K	4,157	5,057	-900	No	+$718	03-29 07:45
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	8	$3.1K	2,399	2,399	+0	Yes	+$203	03-27 08:17
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?	15	$3.0K	2,320	2,320	+0	Yes	+$1,607	09-21 01:33
will bitcoin reach 88k september 21 27 2026	11	$3.0K	7,228	7,228	+0	No	-$1,011	09-26 03:40
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	13	$3.0K	2,708	2,708	+0	Yes	-$818	02-23 07:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$2.9K	1,768	1,768	+0	Yes	+$469	02-28 20:17
nba phi cle 2026 03 09 total 227pt5	35	$2.8K	1,873	1,873	+0	Under	+$805	03-10 00:47
bitcoin above 64k on august 11 2026	14	$2.8K	3,033	3,033	+0	No	+$519	08-11 15:34
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 10 468	12	$2.7K	1,658	1,658	+0	Yes	+$470	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	7	$2.7K	3,574	3,574	+0	Yes	+$791	02-27 14:05
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	2	$2.7K	1,899	1,899	+0	Yes	+$39	03-09 20:32
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	18	$2.2K	3,138	3,138	+0	No	-$343	03-29 07:45
bitcoin above 72k on march 13	14	$2.1K	2,621	2,610	+11	No	+$267	03-13 08:38
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	7	$2.0K	5,835	5,835	+0	No	-$334	03-09 19:34
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	28	$2.0K	1,792	1,792	+0	No	+$51	03-19 18:10
Will XRP reach $1.70 September 21-27?	5	$1.8K	1,810	1,810	+0	No	+$741	09-23 04:16
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	8	$1.7K	1,697	1,697	+0	Yes	+$728	02-28 06:25
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	37	$1.7K	3,156	3,156	+0	Yes	-$881	03-10 13:46
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 65 89	26	$1.7K	1,194	1,192	+2	Yes	+$217	04-11 13:52
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 40 64	2	$1.7K	0	1,753	-1,753	No	-$35	02-22 08:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?	6	$1.7K	2,799	2,799	+0	No	+$292	05-04 14:55
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 21-27?	9	$1.6K	6,212	6,212	+0	No	-$765	09-24 01:51
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	56	$1.6K	7,094	7,051	+42	No	-$79	04-17 02:41
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	15	$1.6K	2,579	2,498	+80	No	+$357	04-17 05:46
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 12 278	4	$1.6K	900	900	+0	Yes	+$191	03-08 21:15
elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 115 139	32	$1.5K	1,010	1,009	+0	Yes	+$254	03-11 14:43
bitcoin above 70k on february 26	12	$1.5K	2,492	2,492	+0	No	+$767	02-25 21:36
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 90 114	9	$1.5K	3,485	3,485	+0	No	-$790	02-23 16:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 14:17:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?	No	SELL	370	15¢	$57	0x32035c…
10-30 14:11:31	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	7¢	$10	0x6c6a99…
10-30 14:09:33	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	443	11¢	$50	0x2cebb9…
10-30 13:36:12	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	343	66¢	$228	0x2ab9cc…
10-30 12:58:31	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	28¢	$20	0x96fc0e…
10-30 12:42:54	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x80cf14…
10-30 12:42:09	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x1c4261…
10-30 12:40:54	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x243b79…
10-30 12:40:24	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x70a54a…
10-30 12:40:09	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x87c536…
10-30 12:39:58	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	28¢	$27	0xd21365…
10-30 05:33:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	113	27¢	$30	0x30ca5a…
10-30 05:33:00	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	241	12¢	$30	0xdc4164…
10-30 05:13:58	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xcbb7da…
10-30 05:00:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?	No	BUY	370	8¢	$30	0x4e4381…
10-30 04:58:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	136	37¢	$50	0x95048b…
10-29 03:15:43	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x718184…
10-28 17:57:14	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xcd7de9…
10-28 10:58:35	Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	171	11¢	$19	0x3a00fc…
10-28 09:33:55	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xf2b605…
10-28 09:32:52	Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	29	11¢	$3	0xec8c9f…
10-28 09:30:23	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	190	26¢	$49	0x0a6d79…
10-28 09:29:49	Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xd4a9e0…
10-28 09:12:19	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	293	9¢	$26	0x53e41d…
10-28 09:11:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	112	26¢	$30	0xee7fec…
10-28 09:01:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	112	29¢	$32	0x7125a9…
10-28 08:42:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?	No	SELL	466	5¢	$23	0xb11a81…
10-28 08:38:50	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	7¢	$12	0x90ee20…
10-28 07:39:01	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0x278997…
10-28 07:38:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0xc977ed…
10-28 07:38:05	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0x400d4a…
10-28 07:38:04	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xef0f8b…
10-28 07:20:47	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	341	2¢	$6	0x374076…
10-28 04:18:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	466	17¢	$79	0x744e59…
10-28 04:14:08	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	236	25¢	$59	0x3a1df4…
10-28 04:13:59	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	106	26¢	$28	0xe65c6f…
10-27 20:36:11	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	342	24¢	$82	0x8394ca…
10-27 19:00:05	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x35732c…
10-27 18:49:15	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x6d4aea…
10-27 18:49:15	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x5b96b6…
10-27 18:26:36	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	21¢	$30	0x3de111…
10-27 15:26:14	Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	153	100¢	$153	0x1fd05c…
10-27 15:10:39	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	99	7¢	$7	0x632c8b…
10-27 15:09:45	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x2fd156…
10-27 15:08:00	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0xe4f4d3…
10-27 15:08:00	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x71972f…
10-27 14:58:47	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xf5c39a…
10-27 14:58:29	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	21¢	$18	0x445780…
10-27 14:48:03	Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x205725…
10-27 14:47:06	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x9764fa…
10-27 14:45:45	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	25¢	$14	0x970bf7…
10-27 12:45:26	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	87	64¢	$55	0x21fdc1…
10-27 11:16:03	Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x499425…
10-27 10:59:11	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	57	11¢	$6	0x1346e2…
10-27 10:54:03	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	63	11¢	$7	0xad8c31…
10-27 10:50:44	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0xfbd22e…
10-27 10:50:38	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	73	12¢	$9	0x09a9e1…
10-27 10:48:44	Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x48d7c7…
10-27 10:46:33	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	144	14¢	$20	0xbccd3e…
10-27 10:04:50	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	73¢	$110	0x60c06b…
10-27 09:37:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	87	58¢	$50	0xbffd1d…
10-27 08:59:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	111	42¢	$47	0xcfc2c5…
10-27 06:24:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	111	54¢	$60	0x396a52…
10-27 06:20:35	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0xdc8a01…
10-27 06:09:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 27?	No	SELL	285	51¢	$145	0xb9ccba…
10-27 03:19:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	922	3¢	$24	0xaa7a66…
10-27 02:57:41	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	300	0¢	$1	0xa0ad0c…
10-26 15:42:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xf6213b…
10-26 15:42:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xddc36e…
10-26 15:41:54	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	45¢	$25	0xb637de…
10-26 15:40:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	57	29¢	$16	0xab62bb…
10-26 15:40:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	228	29¢	$66	0x5f8dea…
10-26 15:21:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	SELL	153	1¢	$2	0x361917…
10-26 14:36:38	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	SELL	441	17¢	$76	0x393723…
10-26 09:56:18	Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0x56f02e…
10-26 09:43:03	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x22968d…
10-26 09:42:45	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0xe6a9aa…
10-26 09:42:45	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	BUY	140	18¢	$25	0x1ec733…
10-26 09:40:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	BUY	294	18¢	$53	0xeb3f7c…
10-26 09:39:42	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	BUY	65	17¢	$11	0x915e86…
10-26 09:18:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x7a1e4e…
10-26 08:47:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x17acc8…
10-26 08:40:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x7ca04d…
10-26 08:33:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xfaffab…
10-26 08:32:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x3b60f1…
10-26 08:15:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	120	56¢	$67	0xfc20d2…
10-26 08:12:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xe6987b…
10-26 08:12:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xb4f19b…
10-26 08:12:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x3924bb…
10-26 08:12:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xea4542…
10-26 08:11:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xcc5dad…
10-26 06:29:15	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0x923932…
10-26 02:00:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	270	1¢	$3	0xd66c4d…
10-26 02:00:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 26?	No	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x071ee0…
10-26 02:00:05	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0x948fc6…
10-26 01:57:50	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xa29917…
10-25 17:21:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xfd3536…
10-25 05:50:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x0697dc…
10-25 04:42:29	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	61	19¢	$12	0x590153…
10-25 04:37:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 26?	No	BUY	79	15¢	$12	0x1b01dc…