Internal-Pamphlet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.72K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.01K

Hit rate

57.0%

Resolved

177

Trades

1,292

lifetime

Volume

$180.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$140

Open exposure

$10.5K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 09-28 03:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

52% 53% -$3,802

Politics

30% 57% -$3,041

Crypto

11% 65% +$123

Tech

6% 57% -$9

Sports

1% 57% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+4,633	$3,973	97¢	$4.5K	+$532	08-14 14:25
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+5,126	$3,080	66¢	$3.4K	+$278	09-12 00:25
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+831	$773	96¢	$798	+$25	09-22 19:25
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-690	-$600	94¢	$-652	-$52	06-16 16:21
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	-946	-$588	44¢	$-411	+$177	05-30 18:40
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	+422	$376	94¢	$397	+$21	09-22 19:19
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	+284	$238	96¢	$271	+$33	07-16 20:37
US military draft authorized in 2026?	No	-100	-$88	98¢	$-98	-$10	06-12 16:34
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+0	-$6	2¢	$0	+$6	07-04 00:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$7.8K	4,862	4,862	+0	No	-$27	04-22 16:58
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	3	$7.0K	3,712	3,712	-0	open	—	07-30 15:31
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	19	$6.9K	3,739	3,422	+317	Yes	+$2	03-01 03:33
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	43	$6.2K	5,965	1,333	+4,633	open	—	08-14 14:25
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	4	$6.1K	3,160	3,160	+0	No	+$36	03-20 00:31
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	2	$5.0K	3,500	3,500	+0	Yes	+$0	06-05 13:48
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	24	$4.6K	5,267	4,047	+1,221	No	-$1,078	03-20 00:31
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	8	$4.4K	4,450	4,450	+0	open	—	07-16 19:43
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	19	$4.2K	2,196	2,205	-9	No	+$37	03-27 12:48
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$4.0K	2,037	2,037	+0	Yes	+$26	01-28 01:36
Fed rate hike in 2026?	6	$3.8K	3,474	3,474	+0	Yes	-$438	08-19 15:36
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	10	$3.8K	1,911	1,911	+0	No	+$2	03-30 00:18
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	4	$3.7K	1,867	1,867	+0	No	+$23	01-15 23:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$3.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$180	05-30 02:14
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	2	$3.3K	1,696	1,696	+0	No	+$4	02-07 18:29
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	7	$3.2K	1,060	2,125	-1,065	No	+$12	06-24 18:23
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$3.1K	5,126	0	+5,126	open	—	09-12 00:25
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	28	$3.0K	1,541	1,652	-111	No	-$18	03-22 04:49
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	5	$3.0K	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	06-25 09:16
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	20	$3.0K	2,332	2,259	+72	Yes	-$46	05-26 02:45
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	12	$2.7K	900	1,800	-900	No	-$4	06-04 16:31
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	13	$2.5K	4,351	4,351	+0	Yes	-$226	05-16 21:51
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	13	$2.4K	3,562	3,562	+0	No	-$11	06-12 18:06
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	25	$2.4K	4,093	4,093	+0	open	—	08-09 18:03
tsla up or down on april 13 2026	2	$2.2K	4,000	4,000	+0	Up	-$1,760	04-13 18:44
us x china tariff agreement by december 31	8	$2.1K	1,400	1,400	+0	Yes	-$49	06-05 14:13
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	1	$2.0K	2,004	0	+2,004	No	+$4	02-28 23:52
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase before 2027?	1	$2.0K	1,958	0	+1,958	Yes	+$6	01-29 23:05
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$139	04-18 17:29
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	2	$1.8K	903	903	+0	No	+$2	05-08 21:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-28 03:29:26	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	429	41¢	$176	0x56e010…
09-23 03:35:19	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xcbfc83…
09-22 19:25:00	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	831	93¢	$773	0x42e563…
09-22 19:19:49	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x08100f…
09-22 19:19:28	Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	431	100¢	$430	0x2c203a…
09-22 11:14:10	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	79	41¢	$32	0x0031a5…
09-20 10:45:54	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xdf9385…
09-18 16:24:09	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	41¢	$4	0xf14b13…
09-18 14:19:08	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	41¢	$60	0xb9c3c4…
09-18 09:08:18	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	41¢	$7	0xfc18fc…
09-12 00:25:16	Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0x37b13e…
09-10 20:11:03	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0x402283…
09-10 18:38:09	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x169155…
09-10 18:37:31	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	95	39¢	$37	0x983aaf…
09-10 18:37:13	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,030	43¢	$870	0xe4e310…
09-09 02:02:39	Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2,623	61¢	$1,600	0x73f8b2…
08-27 03:51:19	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	453	98¢	$446	0x23fd8e…
08-25 02:21:13	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0x398f43…
08-24 09:49:51	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x33ee89…
08-24 09:49:16	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xcd7878…
08-21 23:10:49	will total crypto market cap hit 3pt75t in 2026 20260721192934664	No	SELL	150	89¢	$134	0x64931f…
08-21 23:09:37	will total crypto market cap hit 2pt75t in 2026 20260721192934668	Yes	BUY	42	71¢	$29	0xb87f1b…
08-21 23:07:54	will total crypto market cap hit 3pt5t in 2026 20260721192934665	No	SELL	75	82¢	$62	0x4cba1a…
08-21 23:06:57	will total crypto market cap hit 3pt75t in 2026 20260721192934664	No	SELL	305	93¢	$283	0xc0f56b…
08-21 23:06:33	will total crypto market cap hit 4t in 2026 20260721192934663	No	SELL	227	94¢	$213	0x9c0059…
08-19 15:36:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,606	48¢	$1,251	0xb07d06…
08-18 12:52:28	Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	733	91¢	$667	0xf4e359…
08-18 06:59:36	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x4b11e7…
08-14 14:25:24	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,400	86¢	$1,203	0x0da01a…
08-14 00:34:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	869	52¢	$452	0xfa629e…
08-12 05:34:10	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x7c8bef…
08-11 08:08:15	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x286474…
08-10 17:59:40	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x42cc32…
08-10 17:11:31	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	500	1¢	$6	0x416a3e…
08-10 16:47:33	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	500	17¢	$85	0xffeec3…
08-09 19:28:34	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-09 16:00 UTC	Up	SELL	50	34¢	$17	0xf1abb9…
08-09 19:22:30	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-09 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0xdcebd2…
08-09 18:50:15	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-09 16:00 UTC	Up	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x21a806…
08-09 18:10:31	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-09 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	42	41¢	$17	0x755ce7…
08-09 18:10:10	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-09 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x275f38…
08-09 18:09:30	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-09 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0xa85501…
08-09 18:03:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,140	96¢	$1,096	0x961a5f…
08-08 18:11:55	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	SELL	900	7¢	$63	0x09794f…
08-08 18:11:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	SELL	700	6¢	$42	0x04d42b…
08-08 18:11:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	983	4¢	$39	0xf9ae1b…
08-08 15:48:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xb7e0ff…
08-08 11:54:04	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	83	3¢	$2	0x71382c…
08-08 08:47:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x38b968…
08-08 08:19:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xf312ea…
08-08 07:18:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xb3198c…
08-08 06:52:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xae4708…
08-08 06:47:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	363	4¢	$15	0xe77b48…
08-08 06:47:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0xfbc654…
08-08 06:46:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0x71455b…
08-08 06:46:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	297	9¢	$27	0xf4a8ea…
08-08 06:46:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	561	9¢	$50	0xa8499d…
08-08 06:46:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	32	9¢	$3	0x899786…
08-08 06:46:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x4b38bf…
08-07 19:20:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	900	52¢	$468	0x51f634…
08-07 16:57:46	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	377	53¢	$200	0x2ca7d2…
08-07 06:57:37	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xf9e90f…
08-07 06:57:37	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	88¢	$221	0xdf9348…
08-07 06:57:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	88¢	$109	0xf63ca2…
08-07 06:57:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xcb387d…
08-07 06:57:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0xc86d05…
08-07 06:57:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	88¢	$74	0x53464c…
08-07 06:57:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x4dc495…
08-07 06:57:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	87¢	$17	0x36c383…
08-07 06:57:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x0ba302…
08-07 06:57:33	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	88¢	$254	0x6e39eb…
08-07 06:57:28	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	88¢	$46	0x882b3c…
08-07 06:57:27	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x792625…
08-07 06:57:04	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x0bdbf1…
08-07 06:56:54	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	88¢	$60	0xcca519…
08-07 06:56:54	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xa9f6e0…
08-07 06:56:54	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	88¢	$46	0x70663b…
08-07 06:56:54	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x0f7689…
08-07 06:56:36	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	88¢	$74	0xa3cad9…
08-07 06:55:45	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	88¢	$69	0xe5f00d…
08-07 06:55:40	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	427	88¢	$373	0x050ccd…
08-07 06:55:12	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	87¢	$93	0x0a4dfe…
08-07 06:54:43	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	88¢	$83	0x39eeb3…
08-07 04:46:07	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 04:00 UTC	Up	SELL	40	42¢	$17	0xb9a4c6…
08-07 04:46:04	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 04:00 UTC	Up	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x2a3294…
08-07 04:45:28	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xd7fe06…
08-07 04:45:28	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	43	45¢	$19	0x04084b…
08-07 04:43:43	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-07 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x3cf2be…
08-06 21:39:32	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	567	43¢	$244	0xca1548…
08-06 16:24:47	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xb41ab3…
08-06 16:24:21	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	87	40¢	$35	0x62e770…
08-06 16:22:27	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x7fe11b…
08-06 08:54:30	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	Yes	SELL	383	14¢	$54	0x68aca2…
08-06 04:40:32	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	Yes	SELL	285	13¢	$37	0xc81a21…
08-06 00:00:00	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xf02b47…
08-05 23:59:50	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x1b597b…
08-05 23:32:02	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	Yes	BUY	300	17¢	$51	0x78a040…
08-05 21:30:45	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	Yes	SELL	62	85¢	$52	0xb5fef5…
08-05 20:28:42	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	Yes	SELL	58	85¢	$50	0x58fe47…
08-05 20:21:39	grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x696857…
08-05 18:08:42	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	Yes	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x98926c…