Realized P&L
-$340
Unrealized P&L
+$658
Hit rate
81.8%
Resolved
8
Trades
7,947
lifetime
Volume
$190.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$8.10K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
54% 60% $-848
Other
35% 67% +$509
Tech
9%
Sports
1%
Crypto
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 165 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No +722 $434 98¢ $708 +$274 06-30 01:51
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No +646 $610 99¢ $641 +$31 06-27 09:06
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -835 $-675 66¢ $-555 +$120 06-06 11:41
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No +539 $515 100¢ $536 +$21 06-29 08:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +500 $480 100¢ $498 +$18 06-27 10:15
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? No +500 $455 92¢ $460 +$5 06-20 20:34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No +426 $386 99¢ $422 +$36 06-24 20:38
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +494 $310 68¢ $333 +$23 06-27 05:28
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? No +320 $313 98¢ $312 $-1 06-29 09:00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +300 $298 100¢ $299 +$2 06-27 09:35
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +299 $282 100¢ $299 +$17 06-16 03:18
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No +367 $158 77¢ $282 +$125 06-26 07:03
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +300 $246 86¢ $256 +$11 06-22 05:51
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +252 $265 100¢ $252 $-13 06-27 00:22
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +300 $220 80¢ $242 +$22 06-17 11:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +200 $191 100¢ $200 +$9 06-11 23:20
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +200 $186 100¢ $200 +$14 06-14 04:38
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No -554 $-202 32¢ $-180 +$22 06-26 04:19
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No +178 $160 96¢ $171 +$11 06-23 16:30
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +695 $161 24¢ $170 +$10 06-25 14:20
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI +1,529 $355 11¢ $161 $-194 06-13 11:27
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No +399 $74 36¢ $142 +$68 06-23 00:27
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No +192 $131 66¢ $126 $-5 06-30 21:41
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes -446 $-123 26¢ $-116 +$7 06-30 17:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +200 $108 56¢ $112 +$4 06-23 03:13
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? No -110 $-102 90¢ $-99 +$3 06-25 17:54
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No +99 $88 99¢ $98 +$10 06-05 03:29
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No +110 $83 78¢ $86 +$3 06-30 19:38
Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by June 30? No +82 $75 95¢ $77 +$2 06-16 03:23
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No +65 $60 100¢ $65 +$5 06-12 08:09