Square-Trust — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$769

Hit rate

69.4%

Resolved

955

Trades

13,551

lifetime

Volume

$432.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$2.27K

23 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-02 17:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 225 days

Categories

Other

52% 59% +$6,751

Politics

39% 65% +$5,006

Tech

8% 61% +$1,753

Sports

1% 75% +$443

Crypto

0% 33% -$554

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 111 trades/day

Open positions (23) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	-935	-$750	95¢	$-888	-$138	06-06 11:41
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+361	$287	92¢	$330	+$44	07-28 00:09
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	No	+247	$195	94¢	$231	+$36	07-31 00:50
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	-186	-$393	90¢	$-169	+$224	09-04 18:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$108	84¢	$167	+$59	06-23 03:13
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	-891	-$320	16¢	$-138	+$182	07-11 19:48
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	-109	-$102	97¢	$-106	-$4	05-31 08:35
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	-73	-$65	97¢	$-71	-$5	05-25 14:13
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	No	+61	-$49	99¢	$60	+$109	09-15 00:19
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	+2,466	-$126	2¢	$52	+$178	09-02 16:17
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?	No	-66	-$64	51¢	$-33	+$30	05-23 13:38
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	+894	$494	2¢	$14	-$480	09-15 04:27
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	-52	$45	11¢	$-6	-$51	05-24 12:58
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+240	$119	1¢	$3	-$116	09-14 20:28
GTA VI released by November 30?	No	+176	-$9	2¢	$3	+$12	09-06 15:13
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	+1	-$116	99¢	$1	+$116	09-19 11:20
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	+1	-$111	60¢	$0	+$112	10-29 04:18
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$21	94¢	$0	+$22	05-14 09:16
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	-$75	98¢	$0	+$76	09-01 20:47
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?	No	+0	-$14	97¢	$0	+$14	05-24 10:26
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	+0	-$37	60¢	$0	+$38	10-29 04:18
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	+0	-$300	99¢	$0	+$301	09-24 17:57
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	+0	-$10	34¢	$0	+$10	09-15 22:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	96	$8.6K	9,573	8,547	+1,026	No	+$4,538	05-21 17:41
will russia capture all of huliaipole by september 30	143	$7.2K	17,878	15,612	+2,266	Yes	-$42	07-30 15:15
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	151	$6.1K	16,571	10,130	+6,441	No	-$228	09-05 09:34
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	110	$5.2K	4,716	4,716	+0	No	+$585	07-24 01:04
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	94	$4.3K	9,829	9,643	+186	No	+$1,027	09-01 20:40
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	58	$4.3K	4,116	3,748	+367	Yes	-$3	10-28 17:37
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	31	$4.2K	4,317	4,317	+0	Yes	+$266	08-14 05:24
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	69	$4.0K	2,774	2,774	+0	No	+$449	08-31 16:31
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?	79	$3.6K	4,146	4,145	+1	No	+$1,064	09-06 17:38
will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by august 31	42	$3.6K	2,365	2,365	+0	No	+$141	08-15 07:17
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	64	$3.2K	2,291	2,291	+0	Yes	+$92	07-11 20:58
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	38	$3.1K	3,250	3,250	+0	Yes	+$284	07-24 20:56
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	33	$2.9K	1,822	1,788	+34	No	+$279	07-18 21:02
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	92	$2.8K	7,672	7,672	+0	Yes	+$15	08-05 05:32
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026?	39	$2.7K	4,344	2,311	+2,033	No	+$444	06-29 00:32
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	57	$2.6K	2,165	2,008	+157	Yes	+$256	09-19 20:37
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	39	$2.6K	1,632	1,819	-186	open	—	09-04 18:37
anthony fauci charged by december 31 20260729165802089	71	$2.6K	2,639	2,583	+56	open	—	09-17 06:31
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	45	$2.5K	2,631	536	+2,096	No	-$1,567	05-20 15:22
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	33	$2.5K	2,076	2,076	+0	open	—	07-31 19:34
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	29	$2.4K	1,654	1,654	+0	No	+$117	04-08 07:05
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?	81	$2.2K	1,488	1,487	+1	Yes	+$277	06-29 17:23
us forces seize another venezuela linked oil ship by january 9 2026 785	67	$2.1K	2,522	1,263	+1,259	Yes	-$470	01-07 04:07
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	36	$2.1K	2,110	2,110	+0	open	—	08-22 05:22
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	225	$2.1K	8,958	2,116	+6,842	Yes	+$492	05-13 17:17
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	20	$2.0K	1,296	1,292	+4	open	—	09-28 17:29
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	51	$2.0K	3,151	3,151	+0	No	+$65	06-27 17:54
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	21	$1.9K	1,359	1,359	+0	open	—	09-24 17:57
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?	22	$1.9K	1,035	1,035	+0	No	+$42	08-23 08:05
moscow air traffic suspended by july 31 20260702184246099	73	$1.9K	1,881	1,881	+0	Yes	+$224	07-07 01:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 17:57:01	Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0x9c930c…
11-01 22:59:19	Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	84¢	$126	0x7b970d…
10-30 20:36:45	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	No	BUY	109	40¢	$44	0xee52eb…
10-29 04:18:49	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	88	67¢	$59	0xd06593…
10-29 04:18:49	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x204aec…
10-29 04:18:46	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	34	66¢	$22	0xfdce60…
10-28 21:25:10	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	71	64¢	$46	0xbaad56…
10-28 21:22:34	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0x32c136…
10-28 21:22:34	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x1b8a36…
10-28 21:22:32	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	84	64¢	$54	0x7da81d…
10-28 18:51:25	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x27b026…
10-28 18:50:43	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x387414…
10-28 18:01:22	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0x2a686d…
10-28 18:01:11	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xacb4ee…
10-28 17:56:22	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0x5441e1…
10-28 17:56:22	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	34	63¢	$21	0x420e86…
10-28 17:56:22	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	66	63¢	$42	0x2251c2…
10-28 17:37:29	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	SELL	427	42¢	$178	0x459318…
10-28 13:47:35	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x3b565a…
10-28 13:45:32	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x1e7e98…
10-28 02:14:47	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0x655f83…
10-26 22:29:06	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	141	29¢	$41	0x2ef1bd…
10-26 18:05:26	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	99	94¢	$93	0xa62b90…
10-26 10:11:26	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x658d27…
10-26 08:23:30	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	261	49¢	$128	0x31cb0b…
10-26 06:58:26	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x5a8bcd…
10-26 06:51:54	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x92ed3f…
10-25 18:23:15	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	SELL	27	38¢	$10	0x6df10d…
10-25 14:19:48	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xe35eb2…
10-25 14:17:48	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xae8080…
10-25 14:14:17	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0x1f8b59…
10-25 13:50:09	Will SB Energy IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	82	85¢	$69	0xbe868b…
10-25 03:25:26	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xb8bad1…
10-25 03:25:26	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x77c0d5…
10-23 21:03:09	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	52	26¢	$14	0xaadd82…
10-23 13:35:41	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	30	54¢	$16	0xd7fde2…
10-23 13:12:23	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x2cffad…
10-22 15:10:02	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x6d8d92…
10-22 14:31:00	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0x6c5e4d…
10-22 12:50:32	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	407	25¢	$102	0xdba4d4…
10-22 07:48:00	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	SELL	400	36¢	$144	0x3374e3…
10-09 10:27:28	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	No	SELL	616	66¢	$406	0xb17e2d…
10-07 05:10:15	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x886ceb…
10-07 03:35:27	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	13¢	$2	0xc07ccd…
10-06 23:26:55	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0xcfc6af…
10-06 20:32:42	Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	No	BUY	439	51¢	$225	0xf62f14…
10-06 18:50:00	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x0455f6…
10-06 18:34:57	Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	No	BUY	21	50¢	$11	0xbcff6d…
10-06 17:58:54	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x25b2d0…
10-06 08:35:16	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	49	28¢	$14	0x70f4df…
10-06 08:35:16	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	51	28¢	$14	0x136e8f…
10-05 15:14:14	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x64b5d9…
10-03 18:17:06	Will Serbia call its presidential election by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	25¢	$0	0xc50d0d…
10-03 17:13:57	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x69f65f…
10-03 17:13:57	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	120	44¢	$52	0x1f8afd…
10-03 17:13:50	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	227	57¢	$129	0x0a21a9…
10-03 17:12:39	Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x1f5b99…
10-03 08:26:53	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	SELL	238	36¢	$86	0xc63032…
10-03 05:31:54	Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	72¢	$20	0xd0208f…
10-02 20:41:51	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0x9226b0…
10-02 20:15:09	Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	140	92¢	$129	0xd3f30a…
10-02 16:50:27	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	No	SELL	400	55¢	$220	0x3f48fc…
10-02 16:27:23	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	49	43¢	$21	0xda475c…
10-02 16:27:03	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	157	41¢	$64	0xbe5def…
10-01 19:44:26	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	No	SELL	50	55¢	$28	0x374c58…
10-01 18:18:03	will serbia call its presidential election by november 30	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x434af9…
10-01 17:17:03	will serbia call its presidential election by november 30	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x207c03…
10-01 15:51:50	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	No	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0x916e2f…
09-30 17:09:24	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	292	47¢	$137	0xae1fd9…
09-30 15:57:02	will spacex starship flight test 15 launch by october 31	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xefdde8…
09-30 03:32:45	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x0c43ba…
09-29 09:19:50	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x16282e…
09-29 09:19:42	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xcef691…
09-29 09:19:41	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x8dd211…
09-28 17:29:32	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	SELL	111	78¢	$86	0x087ad3…
09-28 17:27:20	Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	90	56¢	$50	0xd49ff7…
09-28 07:18:50	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	SELL	200	20¢	$40	0xf44262…
09-28 03:59:11	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x075191…
09-28 03:56:36	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	29	16¢	$5	0x83e7bc…
09-28 03:30:11	Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x58d2c3…
09-28 03:30:05	Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xae0814…
09-28 03:30:05	Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4992cb…
09-27 18:56:35	will trump speak to reza pahlavi in september	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0ae85a…
09-27 18:53:54	will trump speak to reza pahlavi in september	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xde96b2…
09-27 10:27:53	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	160	16¢	$26	0x5b57fe…
09-27 09:52:30	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0xbd86f0…
09-27 09:50:11	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x21fb70…
09-27 02:52:57	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x7b4d1e…
09-27 01:25:54	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x3f77a8…
09-27 01:23:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x0780d5…
09-26 16:59:00	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	Yes	SELL	271	53¢	$144	0xd3122c…
09-26 16:57:29	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	78	67¢	$52	0x43185c…
09-26 14:50:39	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	SELL	23	20¢	$5	0xd5efe9…
09-26 14:48:30	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	No	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0xfa1b6a…
09-26 11:00:45	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	33	68¢	$22	0xfda5b5…
09-26 10:46:24	Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31?	No	SELL	219	89¢	$195	0x7f92a7…
09-25 19:57:15	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	34	27¢	$9	0xf94120…
09-25 17:35:36	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	376	38¢	$143	0x62f8bf…
09-24 17:57:08	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	No	SELL	265	84¢	$223	0x513f28…
09-24 17:19:27	Will the UK Budget include a wealth tax?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0xea2e9a…