Realized P&L
-$340
Unrealized P&L
+$756
Hit rate
81.8%
Resolved
8
Trades
9,238
lifetime
Volume
$244.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$26
Open exposure
$3.98K
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 22:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
51% 60% $-848
Other
39% 67% +$509
Tech
9%
Sports
1%
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 121 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +3,152 $357 30¢ $945 +$589 07-20 22:00
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -835 $-675 84¢ $-697 $-22 06-06 11:41
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No +978 $704 69¢ $675 $-29 07-14 18:08
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No -841 $-301 34¢ $-282 +$19 07-11 19:48
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +1,469 $90 12¢ $173 +$83 07-17 08:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +200 $108 64¢ $129 +$21 06-23 03:13
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No +263 $90 48¢ $125 +$35 07-20 18:32
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI +841 $221 15¢ $122 $-99 07-04 18:07
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? No +141 $120 86¢ $122 +$2 07-08 18:32
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No -157 $-211 74¢ $-115 +$96 07-17 01:29
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? No -110 $-102 88¢ $-96 +$5 06-25 17:54
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes -446 $-123 18¢ $-83 +$41 06-30 17:47
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No +209 $50 29¢ $61 +$11 07-09 09:41
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? No -65 $-45 84¢ $-54 $-9 06-22 22:17
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No +399 $74 13¢ $52 $-22 06-23 00:27
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No -50 $-44 92¢ $-46 $-2 06-27 02:26
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No +111 $68 40¢ $44 $-25 06-10 12:53
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Yes -560 $-53 $-39 +$14 07-12 16:16
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No -48 $-39 80¢ $-38 +$1 07-14 16:19
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? No +50 $16 76¢ $38 +$22 06-22 14:16
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? No +14 $13 99¢ $14 +$1 07-07 18:31
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -15 $-37 86¢ $-13 +$24 07-14 14:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +15 $10 83¢ $12 +$2 06-22 19:14