Unique-Muscle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$762

Unrealized P&L

-$110

Hit rate

3.8%

Resolved

132

Trades

708

lifetime

Volume

$25.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$10

18 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 11-06 03:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Other

67% 15% -$592

Politics

23% 18% -$134

Tech

6% 0% -$44

Crypto

3% 48% +$12

Sports

1% 33% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+8	$6	88¢	$7	+$1	06-19 04:32
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+8	$1	12¢	$1	$0	06-19 04:32
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	No	+1	$6	84¢	$1	-$5	09-25 11:25
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+1	$2	67¢	$1	-$1	10-09 07:00
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?	Yes	+1	$16	29¢	$0	-$16	09-24 22:48
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	+0	$31	30¢	$0	-$31	11-04 17:32
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	+1	$14	8¢	$0	-$14	10-21 21:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+0	$1	34¢	$0	-$1	08-26 12:54
Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+0	$1	66¢	$0	-$1	10-30 23:42
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	+0	$2	41¢	$0	-$2	11-06 03:01
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	+0	$1	99¢	$0	-$1	07-21 17:03
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Yes	+1	$14	6¢	$0	-$14	08-28 01:57
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	+0	$1	79¢	$0	-$1	08-23 22:15
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$1	29¢	$0	-$1	10-30 02:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$1	86¢	$0	+$1	10-21 15:03
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+0	$12	1¢	$0	-$12	09-28 18:03
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	+0	$6	1¢	$0	-$6	07-26 00:54
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	+0	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	09-25 01:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed rate hike in 2026?	15	$1.6K	2,563	822	+1,741	Yes	-$42	06-17 18:17
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	15	$1.4K	878	878	-0	open	—	10-05 06:01
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	22	$1.2K	1,443	1,123	+320	No	-$27	06-16 15:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	4	$1.0K	4,364	4,364	+0	open	—	11-04 17:29
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	11	$903	674	674	+0	Yes	-$5	09-19 05:53
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	6	$619	874	874	+0	open	—	10-31 09:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	8	$605	373	373	+0	open	—	10-21 15:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	6	$603	551	551	+0	No	-$3	06-23 05:41
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	5	$569	718	718	+0	No	-$31	06-16 05:16
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	11	$561	1,112	1,112	+0	open	—	10-30 07:52
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	7	$553	932	932	+0	open	—	11-02 18:21
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	5	$521	375	375	+0	No	-$4	09-24 18:20
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	13	$513	514	486	+27	Yes	-$24	07-12 12:37
Will CDU win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?	2	$508	635	635	+0	No	-$25	09-05 23:25
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	14	$459	552	552	+0	open	—	10-20 07:13
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	4	$458	316	316	+0	No	-$9	09-05 17:05
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	3	$439	248	248	+0	open	—	10-08 16:47
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	6	$424	245	245	+0	No	-$2	10-16 20:28
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	3	$404	1,874	1,874	+0	open	—	08-18 20:42
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	7	$403	598	597	+1	open	—	10-21 21:09
Iran leadership change by December 31?	3	$396	235	235	+0	open	—	10-29 08:06
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	9	$389	306	306	+0	No	-$21	10-01 20:00
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	2	$375	208	208	+0	No	-$13	10-18 07:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	7	$334	571	571	+0	open	—	11-04 17:32
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	6	$311	966	966	+0	open	—	10-21 01:44
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	6	$300	794	794	+0	open	—	11-01 07:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	6	$287	410	410	+0	open	—	10-26 08:05
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	6	$286	550	550	+0	No	-$11	10-28 01:08
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	3	$259	392	392	+0	Yes	-$8	08-13 09:51
Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?	3	$236	204	203	+1	Yes	$0	09-06 07:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 03:01:15	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	SELL	39	40¢	$16	0x1a66ef…
11-06 02:15:39	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	Yes	BUY	39	46¢	$18	0xec4bc2…
11-05 08:42:45	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0xd5e780…
11-04 17:32:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	106	24¢	$25	0x5a354a…
11-04 17:31:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	117	25¢	$29	0x9ffb9b…
11-04 17:30:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	114	27¢	$31	0x5ef306…
11-04 17:29:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x00c408…
11-04 17:29:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	214	28¢	$60	0x5539c8…
11-04 17:16:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x664f08…
11-04 17:15:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x8e2389…
11-04 17:11:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	571	32¢	$183	0x00ba5f…
11-04 07:04:03	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$0	0x8a742f…
11-03 15:15:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,259	12¢	$511	0xf0c610…
11-03 15:08:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	12¢	$13	0x1ad0fd…
11-03 15:07:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,364	12¢	$524	0xefc8e9…
11-02 18:21:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x99d87f…
11-02 14:18:46	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0x897936…
11-02 03:02:40	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	61	60¢	$37	0x93cb3d…
11-02 03:02:37	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	62	60¢	$37	0x7ee02b…
11-01 10:43:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	872	25¢	$218	0x49dbfa…
11-01 09:57:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	873	28¢	$244	0x456f37…
11-01 09:46:27	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0x799753…
11-01 09:46:18	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	9	47¢	$4	0xba7b36…
11-01 07:03:21	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xfac8ee…
11-01 05:37:28	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	SELL	21	59¢	$12	0x2e3639…
11-01 05:37:25	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0x71b8e3…
11-01 04:36:36	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xf1dd3f…
11-01 04:36:36	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0xbf49a0…
11-01 03:10:16	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x6ecb61…
10-31 19:54:12	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	367	18¢	$66	0xb6845c…
10-31 19:38:31	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	187	19¢	$36	0x41f9d3…
10-31 19:37:42	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	20¢	$28	0xc3ddf3…
10-31 19:37:15	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x7ce9a6…
10-31 19:37:12	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	794	19¢	$151	0x5f8f35…
10-31 09:37:46	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0x9d74cb…
10-30 23:42:21	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	42¢	$21	0x6627ec…
10-30 22:57:09	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	49	44¢	$22	0x8c41f9…
10-30 22:57:09	Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x29abc6…
10-30 20:37:22	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	104	47¢	$49	0x2c033e…
10-30 20:11:55	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	58¢	$22	0xda1550…
10-30 20:11:55	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	42	58¢	$25	0xd5a650…
10-30 20:11:55	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x475e73…
10-30 19:23:22	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	55	40¢	$22	0x0b5ed3…
10-30 18:27:04	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x075c05…
10-30 17:41:48	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	74	43¢	$32	0xee6bf4…
10-30 12:48:45	Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x64823c…
10-30 09:28:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x3315ca…
10-30 09:13:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	30	55¢	$16	0x6e720d…
10-30 09:12:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0xe778f6…
10-30 09:12:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0xbd875f…
10-30 09:12:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	34	55¢	$19	0x0fc1a0…
10-30 07:52:57	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x29f2f2…
10-30 03:54:54	Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	375	24¢	$90	0xb12d53…
10-30 03:09:07	Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	382	26¢	$99	0xfb14c2…
10-30 02:40:13	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	25¢	$32	0x5015ef…
10-30 02:24:34	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	126	26¢	$33	0x8c6542…
10-29 23:59:30	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	74	21¢	$16	0x1dc531…
10-29 23:14:10	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	160	22¢	$35	0xfa9a01…
10-29 22:28:28	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	29	23¢	$7	0xdc4920…
10-29 22:28:28	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	104	23¢	$24	0x81e549…
10-29 22:28:28	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	101	23¢	$23	0x34bfd0…
10-29 19:04:28	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	SELL	837	35¢	$293	0x59cd15…
10-29 19:00:45	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	32¢	$10	0x4eebee…
10-29 17:25:25	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	868	36¢	$312	0x5d016b…
10-29 08:06:22	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x219838…
10-29 08:06:01	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xf72d13…
10-28 18:02:14	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	235	84¢	$197	0x705f3f…
10-28 18:02:10	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	235	84¢	$198	0xf26f99…
10-28 13:42:35	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	23	65¢	$15	0x40e83a…
10-28 12:56:52	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	24	69¢	$16	0xd7171b…
10-28 06:04:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x40d788…
10-28 01:08:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	532	25¢	$133	0xee33e1…
10-28 00:23:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x173991…
10-28 00:08:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xc0d60b…
10-27 23:52:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x6eac52…
10-27 23:51:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	398	27¢	$107	0xd86a3a…
10-27 23:51:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	152	27¢	$41	0xc4af04…
10-26 20:13:44	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xa3a63e…
10-26 19:44:36	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0xe68efb…
10-26 19:44:36	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	201	42¢	$84	0xc10e4e…
10-26 19:44:35	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	209	42¢	$88	0x0f9d22…
10-26 11:32:20	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	55	43¢	$24	0x3b8448…
10-26 08:05:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0x55c42e…
10-26 06:19:35	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	35¢	$21	0xe90e27…
10-26 05:45:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	210	34¢	$72	0x253758…
10-26 04:59:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	35¢	$48	0x0cc259…
10-26 04:44:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	271	36¢	$96	0xcee67e…
10-26 04:44:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	36¢	$49	0x431abe…
10-26 04:31:02	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xbc2159…
10-26 03:43:48	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x308b8b…
10-25 17:14:36	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x1549aa…
10-25 17:14:27	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0x5adbdd…
10-25 15:58:50	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	92	39¢	$36	0x740691…
10-25 15:52:56	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x90adb1…
10-25 15:52:56	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	39¢	$16	0x2bc1ae…
10-25 09:33:54	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	No	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x525a14…
10-25 06:33:11	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0xc3dc7e…
10-25 00:37:18	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	No	SELL	42	27¢	$11	0xfc0624…
10-24 23:51:56	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	43	34¢	$15	0x33fa95…
10-24 19:23:44	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x4734b0…