Realized P&L
-$1.41K
Unrealized P&L
-$10.4K
Hit rate
68.4%
Resolved
658
Trades
15,929
lifetime
Volume
$722.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$45
Open exposure
$18.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 22:44
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 182 days
Categories
Politics
48% 57% -$3,166
Other
44% 57% +$507
Tech
6% 58% +$1,676
Crypto
3% 43% -$404
Sports
0% 50% -$24
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 121 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -4,000 -$1,511 86¢ $-3420 -$1,908 06-07 17:02
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes +15,173 $3,474 14¢ $2.1K -$1,350 10-21 09:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +4,500 $1,310 32¢ $1.4K +$108 10-27 07:16
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -1,598 -$911 84¢ $-1350 -$439 06-03 03:04
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -1,329 -$1,147 92¢ $-1217 -$70 08-06 16:03
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? No +5,415 $1,061 20¢ $1.1K -$5 10-25 13:46
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +7,000 $1,850 14¢ $945 -$905 10-25 18:59
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No -1,000 -$560 88¢ $-880 -$320 05-03 19:10
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -895 -$399 74¢ $-658 -$259 05-25 07:13
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes +6,750 $2,178 8¢ $540 -$1,638 10-19 13:28
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No +4,396 $1,706 12¢ $506 -$1,201 10-27 07:25
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? No +1,046 $506 48¢ $502 -$4 10-27 07:34
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes +10,480 $420 4¢ $451 +$31 10-24 22:50
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +2,500 $463 18¢ $450 -$13 10-08 22:43
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes +3,290 $623 12¢ $378 -$245 10-23 03:24
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No +2,515 $849 15¢ $365 -$484 10-21 17:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +8,000 $360 4¢ $320 -$40 10-22 21:15
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No +1,500 $345 20¢ $300 -$45 08-12 15:42
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +1,000 $390 21¢ $210 -$180 09-28 22:07
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes -314 -$594 66¢ $-207 +$387 05-27 08:44
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes +5,578 $1,072 4¢ $195 -$877 08-18 12:20
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +1,703 $326 9¢ $158 -$169 10-06 13:58
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +1,470 $5 11¢ $154 +$150 09-28 22:09
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +3,221 -$92 4¢ $130 +$222 10-21 06:48
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -4,500 -$308 3¢ $-128 +$179 10-27 07:38
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,500 $389 8¢ $128 -$261 10-21 11:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +2,000 $320 6¢ $110 -$210 10-23 17:17
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +2,000 $667 6¢ $110 -$557 10-23 11:10
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +677 $207 14¢ $98 -$108 10-26 07:36
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes +1,641 $218 4¢ $74 -$145 07-13 12:30