Realized P&L
+$103
Unrealized P&L
-$2.78K
Hit rate
49.7%
Resolved
11
Trades
7,085
lifetime
Volume
$357.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$51
Open exposure
$17.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-01 17:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
48% 50% $-105
Other
45% 44% +$209
Crypto
4%
Tech
3%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 114 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -4,506 $-2,327 70¢ $-3177 $-849 06-19 12:42
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -2,754 $-1,507 74¢ $-2052 $-545 06-16 16:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -1,500 $-915 100¢ $-1494 $-580 05-29 15:01
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -1,998 $-1,082 69¢ $-1379 $-296 06-03 03:04
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -1,518 $-1,105 76¢ $-1161 $-56 06-16 21:39
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -1,400 $-784 62¢ $-861 $-77 06-22 22:29
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -1,454 $-639 58¢ $-851 $-212 06-07 17:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +7,000 $880 11¢ $735 $-145 06-30 03:42
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes +3,056 $1,211 20¢ $596 $-615 06-16 21:58
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No -1,406 $-646 40¢ $-569 +$77 06-30 19:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +3,000 $560 18¢ $525 $-35 07-01 15:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,372 $382 16¢ $523 +$140 06-21 09:04
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -628 $-772 72¢ $-455 +$317 06-30 09:46
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -700 $-250 60¢ $-416 $-166 05-28 11:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -3,000 $-570 14¢ $-405 +$165 05-30 08:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,756 $455 $404 $-50 06-13 13:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +630 $269 60¢ $381 +$112 06-01 14:20
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes -258 $-117 100¢ $-258 $-141 06-11 22:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +500 $161 44¢ $217 +$56 06-01 14:20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -300 $-129 70¢ $-211 $-82 05-29 18:52
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No +1,916 $156 10¢ $182 +$26 07-01 13:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -200 $-110 82¢ $-165 $-55 06-01 21:36
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes +1,110 $209 15¢ $161 $-48 06-30 18:54
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +369 $167 38¢ $140 $-26 06-16 08:06
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes +667 $22 18¢ $123 +$101 06-26 17:10
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes +780 $204 12¢ $98 $-106 06-14 20:54
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? No +137 $83 71¢ $97 +$14 05-28 10:05
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes +650 $67 12¢ $75 +$8 06-29 16:36
Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027? No +89 $43 78¢ $70 +$27 06-16 09:55
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +272 $-193 24¢ $67 +$260 06-29 16:04