Astonishing-Error — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$25

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

41.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$10.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$289

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-05

last 09-21 03:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

76% 55% +$25

Politics

24% 0% —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes		+15	$3	23¢	$4	+$0	09-21 03:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	2	$967	520	520	+0	open	—	05-23 07:47
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31?	2	$959	530	530	+0	No	-$5	05-25 07:15
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$956	500	500	+0	No	+$0	05-08 05:08
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	2	$954	485	485	+0	No	+$0	05-09 08:01
will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by august 31 20260720003950635	2	$855	455	455	+0	No	+$0	07-21 02:51
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	2	$851	460	460	+0	open	—	07-21 06:18
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	2	$739	389	389	+0	No	+$0	07-01 03:22
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	2	$737	405	405	+0	open	—	07-01 07:52
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)	1	$485	500	0	+500	FC Internazionale Milano	+$15	05-23 08:22
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)	1	$480	490	0	+490	Sevilla FC	+$10	05-09 08:05
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5)	1	$475	490	0	+490	Viborg FF	+$15	05-08 05:28
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-1.5)	1	$474	495	0	+495	Tromsø IL	+$21	05-25 07:55
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	2	$437	230	230	+0	open	—	06-15 07:39
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?	2	$423	225	225	+0	No	-$4	06-16 07:18
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$195	100	100	+0	No	+$0	04-05 07:42
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	4	$147	1,030	1,030	+0	open	—	05-21 06:58
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	2	$122	100	100	+0	open	—	08-07 05:37
lal get bil 2026 04 05 spread away 2pt5	1	$97	100	0	+100	Getafe CF	+$3	04-05 07:50
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5)	2	$30	990	0	+990	AFC Ajax	-$30	05-21 07:04
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	1	$3	15	0	+15	open	—	09-21 03:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-21 03:31:08	Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0xe14fdf…
08-07 05:37:48	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x7b15e0…
08-07 05:04:46	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xb31f8f…
07-21 06:18:30	European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	No	SELL	460	92¢	$423	0xb815ca…
07-21 03:23:21	european country agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	No	BUY	460	93¢	$428	0xb05bf5…
07-21 02:51:24	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by august 31 20260720003950635	No	SELL	455	94¢	$428	0x9ad84f…
07-21 02:12:58	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by august 31 20260720003950635	No	BUY	455	94¢	$428	0x437868…
07-01 07:52:49	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	SELL	405	91¢	$369	0xf022b6…
07-01 06:56:55	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	405	91¢	$369	0x42c2b2…
07-01 03:22:50	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	389	95¢	$370	0xee869b…
07-01 02:07:17	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	389	95¢	$370	0xc7ba82…
06-16 07:18:16	Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?	No	SELL	225	93¢	$209	0xcad36e…
06-16 05:28:57	Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?	No	BUY	225	95¢	$214	0x1e7250…
06-15 07:39:43	Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	No	SELL	230	95¢	$218	0xa996bd…
06-15 06:21:12	Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	No	BUY	230	95¢	$218	0x434645…
05-25 07:55:16	Spread: Aalesunds FK (-1.5)	Tromsø IL	BUY	495	96¢	$474	0xfb0655…
05-25 07:15:26	Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31?	No	SELL	530	90¢	$477	0x3a2c39…
05-25 06:34:11	Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31?	No	BUY	530	91¢	$482	0x328595…
05-23 08:22:06	Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)	FC Internazionale Milano	BUY	500	97¢	$485	0xaa4a83…
05-23 07:47:16	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	SELL	520	93¢	$484	0x16e36b…
05-23 06:42:12	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	BUY	520	93¢	$484	0x1e98ea…
05-21 07:04:06	Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5)	FC Groningen	BUY	490	3¢	$15	0x7785e7…
05-21 07:03:43	Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5)	FC Groningen	BUY	500	3¢	$15	0xc3c25b…
05-21 06:58:18	Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	510	7¢	$36	0x7aac68…
05-21 06:58:04	Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	520	7¢	$37	0x7897f4…
05-21 06:28:24	Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	510	7¢	$37	0xa00488…
05-21 06:28:08	Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	520	7¢	$37	0x385e55…
05-09 08:05:53	Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)	Sevilla FC	BUY	490	98¢	$480	0x4ec3ff…
05-09 08:01:06	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	485	98¢	$477	0x30039b…
05-09 07:37:34	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	485	98¢	$477	0x462cd6…
05-08 05:28:05	Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5)	Viborg FF	BUY	490	97¢	$475	0xd70835…
05-08 05:08:45	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$478	0x357807…
05-08 03:04:51	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$478	0x233d8e…
04-05 07:50:31	lal get bil 2026 04 05 spread away 2pt5	Getafe CF	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xd91503…
04-05 07:42:51	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x2a251b…
04-05 05:23:25	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf5a420…