Stable-Ale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$415

Unrealized P&L

-$35

Hit rate

65.7%

Resolved

Trades

146

lifetime

Volume

$2.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$34

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 09-20 17:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Politics

51% 52% -$343

Other

47% 53% -$63

Crypto

2% 50% -$10

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Yes	+81	$50	30¢	$24	-$26	09-08 20:45
will emmanuel macron visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126054	No	+5	$3	95¢	$5	+$2	08-18 08:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+33	$10	12¢	$4	-$6	05-04 07:26
will emmanuel macron visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126054	Yes	+11	$5	5¢	$1	-$4	08-17 13:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$300	417	0	+417	No	+$117	05-31 12:30
will iran close its airspace by june 9 20260609184136047	5	$252	133	133	+0	No	+$14	06-10 07:21
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$236	251	0	+251	No	+$15	06-10 22:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$210	215	0	+215	No	+$5	05-31 12:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$210	249	0	+249	Yes	-$210	06-10 20:59
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	3	$150	182	0	+182	Yes	-$150	06-10 21:11
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	4	$141	174	0	+174	No	+$34	06-11 20:58
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	9	$111	1,103	0	+1,103	Yes	-$111	06-08 21:51
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$85	100	0	+100	Yes	-$85	06-10 22:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$65	158	0	+158	No	+$93	05-28 19:56
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	2	$50	81	0	+81	open	—	09-08 20:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	1	$50	70	0	+70	Yes	-$50	06-10 20:59
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	1	$50	53	0	+53	No	+$3	08-09 09:54
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$45	50	0	+50	No	+$5	06-10 22:30
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	2	$45	767	767	+0	No	+$3	06-08 21:43
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	7	$37	30	30	+0	No	+$0	08-11 20:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$35	43	0	+43	Yes	-$35	03-10 10:06
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	2	$34	59	0	+59	No	+$16	06-01 19:02
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	1	$22	30	0	+30	Yes	-$22	06-03 21:47
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	1	$20	100	0	+100	No	-$20	05-31 19:58
will trump visit china by march 31	1	$20	43	0	+43	No	+$23	03-04 17:04
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	1	$20	24	0	+24	No	+$4	08-09 09:26
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?	2	$19	68	0	+68	Yes	-$19	06-05 11:45
will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 11 20260607232624535	1	$17	27	0	+27	Yes	+$10	06-08 14:40
will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	6	$17	27	17	+10	No	+$1	08-11 22:19
will xrp dip to 1 in august 2026	3	$16	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	08-10 20:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$15	32	0	+32	No	+$18	05-04 07:27
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	1	$15	39	0	+39	No	-$15	08-09 12:18
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$15	23	0	+23	Yes	+$8	04-03 08:16
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	1	$12	20	0	+20	Yes	-$12	06-01 22:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-20 17:43:48	Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?	Grüne	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0x9e4483…
09-20 17:01:00	Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?	Grüne	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0x5addbd…
09-19 20:59:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SD-AL House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0xb8402a…
09-19 14:57:53	Will Villarreal qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0x6e3b73…
09-19 14:21:05	Will Villarreal qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0x1847d5…
09-13 20:50:25	Will Tyler Shough have 14.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0xcba468…
09-13 20:45:33	Will Tyler Shough have 14.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x2e1ba1…
09-11 00:20:06	Will Türkiye be relegated from Nations League A in 2026-27?	No	BUY	7	38¢	$2	0x15bc0d…
09-11 00:17:39	Will Türkiye be relegated from Nations League A in 2026-27?	No	BUY	7	38¢	$2	0xf4ea7e…
09-08 23:43:03	Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x1fd96e…
09-08 23:13:00	Will Tyler Shough have 14.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xa5ed5d…
09-08 23:11:12	Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xe2997d…
09-08 20:45:01	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	61	62¢	$38	0xd62613…
09-08 20:44:52	Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x1e7103…
08-18 08:38:36	will emmanuel macron visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126054	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xc3ea66…
08-17 13:25:55	will emmanuel macron visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126054	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x46a7f6…
08-16 18:24:28	will emmanuel macron visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126054	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcc828a…
08-16 18:09:27	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	No	BUY	9	28¢	$2	0x4a22ce…
08-16 10:25:39	Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa?	Yes	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0x0a0f84…
08-16 05:21:13	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x2f66de…
08-16 01:10:04	Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xc91d89…
08-15 18:57:03	Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xa2ce21…
08-15 18:18:57	Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xdd9fac…
08-15 17:49:46	Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa?	Yes	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0x8601dd…
08-13 06:57:40	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0x8d903d…
08-11 22:46:48	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf0bba3…
08-11 22:19:37	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x8cd68b…
08-11 22:18:46	will kai or speed die to a wither 20260811135433323	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x2a8a03…
08-11 22:13:27	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xa33023…
08-11 22:12:40	alofoke forms party in dr by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xcf8a5f…
08-11 21:07:04	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0xc7ef60…
08-11 20:47:00	will kai or speed die to a wither 20260811135433323	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xccec0e…
08-11 20:42:06	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xd5ad4e…
08-11 20:05:01	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0x6859ff…
08-11 12:12:12	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xc20213…
08-11 08:50:37	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	Yes	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0x633603…
08-10 20:25:40	will xrp dip to 1 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x639441…
08-10 13:19:28	will xrp dip to 1 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xac1553…
08-10 13:19:16	will xrp dip to 1 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x655604…
08-10 13:11:12	atp cretu moelle 2026 08 10 first set winner Cretu vs Moeller	Cretu	BUY	6	45¢	$2	0x84e296…
08-10 13:06:30	atp cretu moelle 2026 08 10 first set winner Cretu vs Moeller	Cretu	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x270ca0…
08-10 13:06:25	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x7c5298…
08-10 13:02:31	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xeb5c29…
08-10 13:00:34	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4e3af5…
08-10 13:00:18	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x1711cf…
08-10 13:00:12	atp cretu moelle 2026 08 10 first set winner Cretu vs Moeller	Cretu	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x2d75c0…
08-10 13:00:01	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xdaa418…
08-10 12:59:42	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xb88c2b…
08-10 12:59:16	atp cretu moelle 2026 08 10 first set winner Cretu vs Moeller	Cretu	BUY	1	46¢	$0	0x13bc86…
08-10 12:59:09	atp cretu moelle 2026 08 10 first set winner Cretu vs Moeller	Cretu	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xd3e742…
08-10 12:59:04	atp cretu moelle 2026 08 10 first set winner Cretu vs Moeller	Cretu	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xe96633…
08-10 12:55:00	atp cretu moelle 2026 08 10 first set winner Cretu vs Moeller	Cretu	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0xa9cbb4…
08-10 12:51:34	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x3141ac…
08-10 07:18:07	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	Yes	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0xc9cabf…
08-10 07:15:42	will solana reach 100 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0x9a7ef0…
08-10 07:08:22	Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2fb026…
08-09 23:51:30	wta fernand osaka 2026 08 09 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xea7add…
08-09 23:38:45	will solana reach 100 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xea5a95…
08-09 23:37:00	wta fernand osaka 2026 08 09 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4b14ae…
08-09 23:10:22	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x2b33ce…
08-09 14:53:45	will russia target kyiv by august 10 2026 20260809090428975	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe9c3ae…
08-09 14:53:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x376453…
08-09 12:18:42	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	Yes	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0xa4a2b0…
08-09 09:54:28	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0xaba654…
08-09 09:26:19	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0xbd841f…
06-11 20:59:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x78650b…
06-11 20:58:21	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x40e7ab…
06-11 20:22:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x16ab4c…
06-11 20:21:39	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xf5f923…
06-10 22:49:22	Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xf13151…
06-10 22:47:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xd28c47…
06-10 22:43:40	Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xa5922a…
06-10 22:30:33	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0xe959a3…
06-10 22:29:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x168e6b…
06-10 22:28:01	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$51	0x8645d8…
06-10 22:26:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	48	97¢	$46	0xc9cf16…
06-10 21:11:03	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xfe99bf…
06-10 20:59:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x9b6858…
06-10 20:59:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x699351…
06-10 07:21:25	will iran close its airspace by june 9 20260609184136047	No	SELL	133	100¢	$133	0xc91b14…
06-09 20:57:04	will iran close its airspace by june 9 20260609184136047	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xae0588…
06-09 20:56:16	will iran close its airspace by june 9 20260609184136047	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa11445…
06-09 20:35:27	will iran close its airspace by june 9 20260609184136047	No	BUY	110	89¢	$98	0x5e40e3…
06-09 20:35:16	will iran close its airspace by june 9 20260609184136047	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x54ee37…
06-08 21:51:30	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	15¢	$8	0xc04b6d…
06-08 21:50:06	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x070a1f…
06-08 21:49:57	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xe078d4…
06-08 21:49:43	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	80	14¢	$11	0x95e33c…
06-08 21:49:34	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	107	13¢	$14	0x47808e…
06-08 21:49:33	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd9c4ea…
06-08 21:49:28	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x881f67…
06-08 21:49:03	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	236	11¢	$25	0x0b3bbb…
06-08 21:48:52	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	576	8¢	$46	0xd478aa…
06-08 21:43:10	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?	Yes	SELL	767	3¢	$24	0x8ca983…
06-08 14:40:12	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 11 20260607232624535	Yes	BUY	27	63¢	$17	0x58c5c8…
06-05 11:45:46	Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xf3ccc9…
06-03 21:47:39	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0xbc339b…
06-02 07:03:35	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x9f66e4…
06-01 22:36:49	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x0ef86f…
06-01 20:24:29	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xe033d5…