Brown-Bear — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

298

lifetime

Volume

$296

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-09

last 07-23 09:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

53% 0% $-0

Politics

21% 0% $-0

Crypto

10% 0% $-0

Tech

7% — —

Sports

6% 0% $-0

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	18	$18	9	9	-0	open	—	03-01 02:31
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$6	3	3	+0	Yes	$-0	03-31 09:09
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-21 07:59
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	6	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-24 01:16
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$4	2	2	-0	open	—	07-11 04:37
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	-0	open	—	07-17 02:09
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-18 08:36
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-23 09:04
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-25 01:59
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-02 07:06
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-11 04:38
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	03-19 08:13
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-06 06:55
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	-0	open	—	06-09 08:51
will openai have the best ai model for math on march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-26 08:52
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	$-0	04-27 06:23
will hurupay launch a token by june 30 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-05 09:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-28 06:41
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-16 07:08
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-27 06:25
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-15 03:37
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	02-09 08:52
Will Burnley be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-28 08:13
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-02 09:17
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-28 08:04
will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-22 08:53
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-02 08:20
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-20 04:33
will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-24 09:16
bitcoin above 60k on april 13	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-08 07:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 09:04:24	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x06a161…
07-23 08:46:57	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6eaa75…
07-22 08:53:28	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0dec37…
07-22 08:49:03	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x840007…
07-21 06:33:57	will the ethereum volatility index hit 100 by july 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xbfcb8d…
07-21 06:29:30	will the ethereum volatility index hit 100 by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf14a93…
07-20 08:27:06	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x43faf4…
07-20 08:09:57	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8a0d7a…
07-18 09:09:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x986adc…
07-18 08:54:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x075518…
07-17 02:10:31	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xeb93f6…
07-17 02:09:49	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4cd7be…
07-17 01:49:22	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb3584f…
07-17 01:40:21	will trump accuse china of election interference by july 16 20260714013930794	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x768d6c…
07-16 09:03:59	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x466391…
07-16 09:03:02	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x2ed0a1…
07-16 08:37:16	will north korea recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x25518a…
07-16 08:30:08	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 15 20260708001726331	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd9ea25…
07-13 08:44:28	will bitcoin reach 76k july 13 19 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb2a50c…
07-13 08:23:25	will bitcoin reach 76k july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x74a437…
07-11 04:38:23	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x87029d…
07-11 04:37:53	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8279ce…
07-11 03:51:56	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5e7ca0…
07-11 03:41:14	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcf786e…
07-10 08:54:13	will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe60763…
07-10 08:34:35	will usd fall to 1pt4m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325084	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd4d6d5…
07-09 03:58:11	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x30a175…
07-09 03:33:01	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x495493…
07-08 09:02:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfa9588…
07-08 08:41:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xab5496…
07-07 02:02:46	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9a9d87…
07-07 01:48:11	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x45bbee…
07-06 08:27:44	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xa01e97…
07-06 08:26:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x58bb3e…
07-06 08:14:17	UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9b1f03…
07-06 08:00:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x82aed5…
07-03 08:03:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x04d900…
07-03 07:49:16	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8eccd2…
07-02 08:21:05	will hamad bin isa al khalifa attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204732	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x88caf8…
07-02 08:20:43	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6f0fea…
07-02 08:10:23	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x50792e…
07-02 08:00:35	will hamad bin isa al khalifa attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204732	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4124db…
07-01 09:26:35	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6b121e…
07-01 09:17:17	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x364739…
06-30 03:29:35	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0320f8…
06-30 03:28:41	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3bf449…
06-30 03:12:13	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6c7a52…
06-30 02:57:59	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x647a0e…
06-27 09:00:59	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9bdead…
06-27 08:18:17	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x134e64…
06-26 04:12:32	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x661c71…
06-26 03:39:53	Human moon landing in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2a1747…
06-25 09:20:41	will 1 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228786	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x81d798…
06-25 09:02:46	will 1 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228786	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8b163d…
06-24 09:16:19	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x411aa4…
06-24 08:59:11	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x05ffab…
06-23 09:25:46	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5474a0…
06-23 08:58:41	us evacuates beirut embassy by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xec0696…
06-22 04:43:20	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x61f604…
06-22 04:42:10	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xea7f82…
06-22 04:23:49	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x630717…
06-22 04:19:17	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa25ba7…
06-21 09:47:11	will spacex have fewer than 11 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xc95af1…
06-21 09:29:44	will spacex have fewer than 11 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x91e89f…
06-18 08:36:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xeadf8d…
06-18 08:23:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe460c0…
06-17 01:51:19	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x244e7c…
06-17 01:33:38	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by june 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaa7e34…
06-16 08:51:24	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x18b025…
06-16 08:35:22	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x405d3d…
06-15 08:27:30	will decibel launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd43f05…
06-12 09:05:52	Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xf25409…
06-12 08:44:36	Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x547ada…
06-11 08:24:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8b5582…
06-11 08:09:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x951df6…
06-10 09:20:24	U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xdaaffa…
06-10 09:19:34	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfc0c5b…
06-10 08:59:48	U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x39c6c5…
06-10 08:53:39	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb01cf3…
06-09 08:51:49	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x85b191…
06-09 08:42:31	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb50cad…
06-08 08:22:51	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x566fb3…
06-08 08:09:16	1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x36eff7…
06-06 08:17:31	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9471bb…
06-06 08:00:07	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb7517e…
06-05 09:17:49	will hurupay launch a token by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa50bf0…
06-05 08:56:01	will hurupay launch a token by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x82aac2…
06-04 09:40:21	nvda above 185 on june 5 2026	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb7bfa4…
06-04 09:38:58	will trump be photographed every day this week 61 67	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4a47f6…
06-04 09:33:49	will trump be photographed every day this week 61 67	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5d8dea…
06-04 09:27:04	nvda above 185 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x49a017…
06-03 01:49:20	Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x78b96e…
06-03 01:48:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x599242…
06-03 01:23:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5b915a…
06-03 01:18:13	Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5b3859…
06-02 09:17:28	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6f5e8f…
06-02 09:12:34	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb423d7…
06-01 09:17:00	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xab5d74…
06-01 09:00:39	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5bc83c…
05-30 08:49:30	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb368fb…