Probable-Beast — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

79.5%

Resolved

338

Trades

661

lifetime

Volume

$8.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$14

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-03 11:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

81% 83% +$2

Crypto

13% 96% +$1

Politics

3% 77% +$0

Sports

2% 50% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No		+11	$11	100¢	$11	+$0	11-03 11:45
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No		+3	$3	100¢	$3	$0	09-21 23:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on May 7?	4	$94	47	47	+0	No	$0	05-07 08:16
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 6?	3	$80	40	40	+0	No	$0	05-05 19:46
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on May 6?	4	$80	51	28	+23	No	+$0	05-05 12:02
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?	3	$79	40	40	+0	No	$0	05-09 00:28
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 2?	7	$75	38	38	+0	No	$0	05-02 04:50
highest temperature in toronto on april 3 2026 6c	1	$70	70	0	+70	No	+$0	04-03 02:32
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C or higher on May 13?	3	$69	34	34	+0	No	+$0	05-13 08:22
bitcoin above 62k on april 2	1	$68	68	0	+68	Yes	+$0	04-02 06:47
xrp above 1pt2 on april 7	1	$67	67	0	+67	Yes	+$0	04-07 02:18
solana above 90 on april 1	1	$67	67	0	+67	No	+$0	04-01 10:51
Will Alexander Gaasserud be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?	5	$63	31	31	+0	No	+$0	05-12 14:24
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 6?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-06 07:25
Will Australia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-15 15:22
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 7?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-07 08:09
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 8?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-08 16:23
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 15?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-15 02:16
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 14?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-15 02:16
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C or below on May 4?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-04 00:07
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-05 00:02
solana above 70 on april 5	1	$54	55	0	+55	Yes	+$0	04-05 06:38
Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-16 19:15
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 11?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-11 04:48
highest temperature in nyc on april 11 2026 78forhigher	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	04-11 03:59
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 17?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-16 17:14
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 6?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-06 00:34
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 10?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-09 07:05
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or below on May 7?	4	$50	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-07 00:14
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 12?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-12 05:50
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 38°C or higher on May 12?	3	$50	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-12 01:23
zelenskyy of tweets april 14 april 21 2026 120 139	4	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-21 08:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 11:45:40	Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x2610ce…
11-01 13:22:58	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd80ff9…
10-20 10:43:47	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaebfda…
10-18 11:11:14	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$7	0xc643a3…
10-06 03:26:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xde76fa…
09-30 13:36:38	Will Dailyn Swain win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$7	0x2324fd…
09-30 13:35:47	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x166e0c…
09-21 23:36:55	Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x55c305…
09-19 11:57:00	Will Dailyn Swain win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x6e7c02…
09-14 02:01:03	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0xc1854e…
09-07 14:27:12	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xefb990…
09-04 02:19:07	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x838629…
09-04 02:17:55	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x029cd5…
09-04 02:16:40	Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xf3b0fc…
09-04 02:15:25	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb9cdcb…
09-04 02:14:09	Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe3a0c9…
09-04 02:12:55	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x9b1697…
08-13 15:02:12	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb39e80…
08-11 10:39:06	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x277412…
07-30 07:52:47	Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x55fe3f…
07-27 03:56:52	Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xec10fa…
07-22 17:28:36	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf4fcaf…
07-17 16:39:01	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7199ea…
07-13 03:52:55	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xcabc5d…
07-10 04:40:44	Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdfec1d…
07-05 16:44:07	Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6eb62c…
07-01 22:56:55	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x26e507…
06-25 16:28:25	Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x50ccc6…
06-24 19:06:46	Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3d91af…
06-18 06:23:49	Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x33d20f…
05-17 15:55:41	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 17?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xd96838…
05-17 15:54:15	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 17?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x871754…
05-17 15:52:55	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 17?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xe5445a…
05-17 15:51:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xa5c6ec…
05-17 15:51:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x73eca6…
05-17 15:51:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xbff06a…
05-17 07:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 17?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xed2c0a…
05-17 05:15:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on May 17?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x59b94e…
05-16 23:36:44	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 17?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x95f408…
05-16 21:49:35	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 17?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xf2c7cb…
05-16 20:20:11	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 16?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x77b611…
05-16 19:54:10	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x1e83ef…
05-16 19:15:54	Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xca804a…
05-16 18:07:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May 17?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4b96db…
05-16 17:43:21	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x60b19e…
05-16 17:38:31	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xafedfe…
05-16 17:17:25	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 16?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x0e13a4…
05-16 17:16:49	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4bdb52…
05-16 17:14:18	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 17?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x908961…
05-16 14:53:33	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May 17?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x00d3fb…
05-16 13:05:32	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x5541c7…
05-16 12:13:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 17?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xadf1b7…
05-16 10:35:53	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 16?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd10adc…
05-16 08:55:10	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 16?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x1ca1bd…
05-16 07:11:08	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xae8d80…
05-16 06:23:04	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x2764fe…
05-16 04:56:06	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3fa86e…
05-16 03:21:32	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xcc1e0c…
05-16 01:10:47	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2b3e51…
05-16 00:55:26	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd06230…
05-16 00:53:48	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1a65c9…
05-16 00:39:50	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xfe1532…
05-16 00:21:36	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x0aba46…
05-15 23:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$18	0xaa960f…
05-15 21:38:41	Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x788f67…
05-15 17:00:28	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5834ac…
05-15 16:54:01	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xa00628…
05-15 15:22:26	Will Australia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xfcda2e…
05-15 15:07:09	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf61b50…
05-15 15:07:09	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x5c0d0f…
05-15 15:07:09	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x18018e…
05-15 14:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5aefaf…
05-15 14:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcc37e7…
05-15 14:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6e9d7e…
05-15 14:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x440cca…
05-15 13:25:39	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 15?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x63b65c…
05-15 09:46:52	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x9d91e2…
05-15 09:03:28	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x846e4d…
05-15 05:42:27	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xaba9dc…
05-15 03:37:41	Will Australia come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x314a0f…
05-15 02:31:19	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 15?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3e13fc…
05-15 02:27:55	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 15?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x879dc5…
05-15 02:17:58	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on May 15?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x93bcbb…
05-15 02:16:32	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x26f7c7…
05-15 02:16:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 15?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x356152…
05-14 13:33:25	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 15?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf55780…
05-14 13:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe18f32…
05-14 11:09:43	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 15?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd58551…
05-14 10:49:13	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 14?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x83bbae…
05-14 09:23:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 15?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x3849c1…
05-14 06:25:26	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 14?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x2cc187…
05-14 06:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 14?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xf39608…
05-14 05:58:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 14?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x35cb4f…
05-14 05:42:45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on May 15?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x8c7b62…
05-14 04:53:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xdd9407…
05-14 02:47:23	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 14?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x77dc07…
05-14 02:08:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 14?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x251666…
05-14 01:42:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x94518b…
05-13 21:09:11	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on May 14?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x7b5b52…
05-13 19:12:02	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on May 14?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x9123ef…