Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$18

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

60.0%

Resolved (90d)

101

Trades (90d)

107

139 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$119

$176 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-07-20

last 11-06 17:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

81% 58% +$11

Politics

18% 56% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	+4	$1	52¢	$2	+$1	11-05 06:32
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	+2	$1	64¢	$1	+$0	11-04 05:53
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	11-05 22:38
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on November 6?	No	+1	$1	86¢	$1	+$0	11-06 17:47
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	No	+1	$1	75¢	$1	$0	11-06 09:42
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	40¢	$1	$0	11-05 14:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	2	$3	2	2	+0	No	+$1	10-19 09:33
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	2	$2	3	3	+0	No	+$0	10-19 09:35
will trump say steel during michigan remarks 20260724162420360	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	07-26 11:59
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	2	$2	5	0	+5	No	+$2	10-06 22:05
meta up or down on september 17 2026	1	$2	4	0	+4	Up	-$2	09-16 23:29
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	10	0	+10	Yes	+$8	09-20 20:51
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	08-13 11:06
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	08-01 14:41
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	09-16 15:28
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	5	0	+5	No	-$2	09-20 11:39
will xagusd reach 72 in august 2026	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	+$2	08-23 16:38
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	08-13 03:05
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	+$2	09-03 04:27
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	-$2	08-02 07:06
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1	$2	8	0	+8	No	-$2	07-31 10:08
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-04 01:26
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	1	$2	6	0	+6	Yes	-$2	08-01 22:48
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	08-02 17:09
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	1	$2	10	0	+10	Yes	-$2	08-04 09:26
will stock market be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260731211505809	1	$2	6	0	+6	No	-$2	08-03 17:26
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	-$2	09-16 07:24
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	1	$2	7	0	+7	No	+$5	08-03 01:10
will nvda dip to 196 by august 3 2026	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	08-03 09:24
meta up or down on august 4 2026	1	$2	7	0	+7	Down	-$2	08-04 17:27
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	+$1	09-07 09:13
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	09-02 18:26
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	-$2	08-13 19:20
will warsh say projection during july press conference 20260720204109048	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	07-25 23:58
will warsh say holding during july press conference 20260728013709204	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	+$2	07-29 16:02
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	0	+4	cancelled	$0	07-28 21:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 17:47:10	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on November 6?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x0274c4…
11-06 09:42:31	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb5cf25…
11-05 22:38:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe9cdde…
11-05 14:36:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9bf972…
11-05 06:32:45	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xbcec5a…
11-04 22:32:25	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xd8aa8c…
11-04 13:56:51	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0d36cc…
11-04 05:53:22	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x3df59a…
11-03 21:53:15	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbdd954…
11-03 13:44:07	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5d80dc…
11-03 05:43:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 3?	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x299172…
11-02 21:43:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x50b41a…
11-02 13:42:42	Will Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x996449…
11-02 05:42:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x6bc4dc…
11-01 21:42:18	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xed0430…
11-01 11:20:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xca5e4f…
11-01 00:51:51	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xaaf6ea…
10-30 16:10:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x2e8fdc…
10-28 07:03:59	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x55d11d…
10-27 11:02:41	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x8bc2ef…
10-27 03:01:03	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x3c79f4…
10-24 06:22:56	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x01112d…
10-23 20:19:23	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x39336c…
10-22 12:11:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe36645…
10-22 03:35:53	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x657796…
10-21 19:10:57	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x33451f…
10-21 11:10:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x361101…
10-21 03:09:29	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xfe4453…
10-20 07:07:28	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 25?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3ece8f…
10-19 23:07:20	will ewy dip to 155 by october 19 2026	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd29fb5…
10-19 15:07:14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x31fe66…
10-19 09:38:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0xc78d53…
10-19 09:36:53	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0x580abd…
10-19 09:35:24	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x2ab61e…
10-19 09:33:53	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xd19f6f…
10-19 06:42:36	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8fda9b…
10-18 22:42:33	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x527551…
10-18 13:14:29	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7ec7fa…
10-18 05:14:18	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x61c12d…
10-17 20:28:47	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x8da370…
10-17 12:27:27	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x8168fd…
10-17 04:22:51	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xb34c95…
10-16 18:07:14	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x677bea…
10-16 08:44:15	will pltr reach 204 by october 12 2026 from october 15	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x21ebad…
10-16 08:42:55	will rklb reach 58 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x7d7fad…
10-16 00:40:57	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa5fda2…
10-15 16:38:52	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xac39e2…
10-15 08:30:50	will xagusd dip to 55 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x96e6ec…
10-15 00:26:23	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x2af9a1…
10-14 04:19:52	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xfacf5b…
10-13 20:12:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x8c9a92…
10-13 00:06:47	will meta dip to 720 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1b1fe5…
10-12 04:06:29	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x86f68e…
10-11 20:06:22	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb3d6a3…
10-11 12:06:16	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x8fbdf3…
10-11 03:49:42	Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x06e053…
10-10 19:12:34	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa931d5…
10-10 10:48:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x73e8d1…
10-10 01:49:07	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9ba477…
10-10 01:48:20	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc2c648…
10-09 17:40:31	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xda7a6c…
10-09 09:30:16	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc34c19…
10-09 00:24:41	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x676271…
10-08 15:36:27	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x96bdaa…
10-08 07:35:31	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x1d7bd5…
10-07 23:35:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x57075a…
10-07 15:31:31	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x6b3615…
10-07 14:21:58	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xcdf1b7…
10-07 06:05:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xbec753…
10-06 22:05:00	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd5ee03…
10-06 14:04:42	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x951a72…
10-06 14:04:20	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xdecc51…
10-06 06:03:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6?	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x18a438…
10-05 22:03:29	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $236 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x26f5e8…
10-05 22:03:02	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xc8a81a…
10-05 14:02:37	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x66e8e2…
10-05 05:46:25	will rklb dip to 72 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x9d2f3e…
10-04 04:26:22	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0d6721…
10-03 20:04:10	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x96191e…
10-03 08:41:03	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x8d1857…
10-02 21:52:00	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x6e7c6a…
10-02 09:34:45	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x7dd89f…
10-02 01:34:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe1d93b…
09-30 04:21:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x415147…
09-29 20:20:32	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x58f6e9…
09-29 00:12:06	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x5bf54c…
09-28 15:34:11	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6e29d0…
09-28 15:31:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xffec03…
09-28 06:55:26	will nvda dip to 216 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xd5cac5…
09-27 22:41:11	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x19b823…
09-27 14:18:11	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xdf7a53…
09-27 06:08:39	will msft dip to 510 in september 2026 from september 25	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x0e5f09…
09-26 21:47:44	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2bee98…
09-26 13:42:12	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xa9ec74…
09-26 05:41:57	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x25378e…
09-20 20:51:38	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x07fef9…
09-20 11:39:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x0bc883…
09-16 23:29:25	meta up or down on september 17 2026	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x64ea6b…
09-16 15:28:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x41140d…
09-16 07:24:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x9b9114…