Shameless-Temporary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,762

lifetime

Volume

$30.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 08-03 01:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

62% 33% +$24

Sports

12% 50% $-1

Crypto

9% — —

Tech

9% — —

Politics

9% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	34	$1.3K	1,283	1,283	+0	open	—	05-04 14:55
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	4	$1.3K	800	700	+100	open	—	05-13 19:03
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	16	$1.2K	738	728	+10	open	—	04-27 13:41
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	18	$1.1K	829	829	+0	open	—	04-06 10:07
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	11	$928	596	596	+0	open	—	06-01 17:11
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	20	$806	591	591	+0	open	—	04-12 19:46
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	7	$602	373	366	+7	open	—	04-30 18:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	5	$601	2,859	427	+2,432	open	—	06-16 20:29
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$557	374	374	+0	open	—	06-20 10:26
will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 75m and 80m	4	$519	302	302	+0	open	—	03-23 21:00
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	1	$503	0	524	-524	open	—	06-27 20:12
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	15	$495	2,418	0	+2,418	open	—	06-09 15:14
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	9	$429	493	493	+0	open	—	05-13 19:03
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	45	$407	5,615	200	+5,415	open	—	04-05 01:56
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	3	$383	677	0	+677	open	—	06-08 17:43
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	1	$380	0	500	-500	open	—	08-03 01:59
will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	7	$371	5,200	200	+5,000	open	—	04-18 16:42
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	7	$366	270	270	+0	open	—	05-22 05:48
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$365	250	250	+0	open	—	06-19 21:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$336	205	205	+0	open	—	04-23 12:54
will hoppers 3rd weekend box office be between 18m and 19pt5m	7	$335	484	0	+484	open	—	03-23 21:00
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	3	$317	188	188	+0	open	—	05-09 14:49
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	4	$316	305	305	+0	open	—	08-02 21:03
Will "Left" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	3	$315	460	460	+0	open	—	05-21 19:27
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	2	$308	200	194	+6	open	—	04-24 14:29
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	2	$299	242	242	+0	open	—	04-24 10:32
will you me tuscany opening weekend box office be less than 8m	7	$292	325	325	+0	open	—	04-12 12:01
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	4	$288	600	0	+600	open	—	06-25 15:28
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	3	$285	500	0	+500	open	—	05-29 21:44
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be between 70m and 80m	6	$261	252	252	+0	open	—	04-12 04:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 01:59:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	500	76¢	$380	0x4633b5…
08-03 01:58:12	Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0xa001af…
08-03 01:58:03	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	45	92¢	$41	0x25f037…
08-02 21:03:50	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	305	100¢	$303	0x916960…
08-02 20:16:03	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x157154…
08-02 08:59:05	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xb61565…
08-02 08:58:21	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	4,822	0¢	$5	0x473b4d…
08-02 08:54:17	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x8c98be…
07-24 17:02:01	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x00267d…
07-24 17:01:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x890ae0…
07-24 17:00:48	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	663	0¢	$1	0x7e305b…
07-24 17:00:46	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	457	0¢	$0	0x858771…
07-24 04:53:48	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	300	70¢	$210	0x927f5c…
07-19 18:41:31	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	200	41¢	$82	0x384ef3…
07-19 18:34:49	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	96	95¢	$91	0x56b4fd…
07-19 15:58:37	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0xd6aaff…
07-19 15:55:13	will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the us in 2026	No	BUY	93	38¢	$35	0x7ca557…
07-19 07:57:45	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	200	37¢	$74	0xb012cf…
07-17 21:06:25	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	5	70¢	$3	0x9a4b37…
07-15 23:11:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x4d7bac…
07-12 11:36:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x5f6e7f…
07-11 20:03:28	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	90	66¢	$59	0x52bf5f…
07-11 19:50:49	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 corners team away 6pt5	Over	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0xf9f43e…
07-11 19:49:47	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 corners total 9pt5	Over	BUY	426	47¢	$200	0xe83380…
07-11 17:41:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 corners first half total 4pt5	Over	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x70f0da…
07-10 11:22:56	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x45d7e5…
07-10 08:01:37	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	121	3¢	$4	0x9ab2f9…
07-10 06:38:37	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0x42c3b1…
07-08 07:28:46	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	364	34¢	$124	0x5c846b…
07-03 05:36:34	will mexico reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134467	Yes	SELL	250	45¢	$112	0x45444a…
07-02 22:50:34	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0xc9a6ad…
07-02 22:49:07	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	35	1¢	$0	0x2a24fe…
07-02 22:47:31	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x40c749…
07-02 22:47:29	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,584	1¢	$16	0xfb0ec7…
07-02 05:36:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	118	3¢	$4	0x17d1c0…
07-02 05:35:26	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,517	3¢	$52	0xbb7903…
07-01 09:51:58	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	85	1¢	$1	0x1cfba1…
07-01 08:13:59	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf95b94…
07-01 06:42:31	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9f9349…
07-01 06:38:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$9	0x117731…
06-30 04:29:37	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xe3864a…
06-30 04:27:29	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	56	71¢	$40	0x57325e…
06-29 17:55:04	Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	134	99¢	$132	0xef737d…
06-28 09:53:08	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	140	1¢	$1	0xadd785…
06-28 04:42:11	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	58¢	$175	0x18f2ca…
06-27 23:14:37	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$9	0x3d2c5b…
06-27 23:06:41	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9072ca…
06-27 23:01:41	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x811b0d…
06-27 22:23:34	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0x676847…
06-27 22:23:10	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x8cd45d…
06-27 21:53:13	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xf796a9…
06-27 20:59:32	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 goals marcus rashford gte1	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x4af0af…
06-27 20:59:26	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 goals bukayo saka gte1	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x41d4b8…
06-27 20:57:43	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 corners team away 7pt5	Over	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x3e66c5…
06-27 20:12:17	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	SELL	524	96¢	$503	0xe205a0…
06-27 20:03:46	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x7f9538…
06-27 19:15:32	will christian pulisic score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0xc14f9b…
06-27 04:33:11	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	41	1¢	$0	0x786efa…
06-27 04:17:08	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	66	1¢	$1	0xb2e385…
06-25 18:48:49	will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	No	SELL	100	45¢	$45	0x280650…
06-25 17:04:52	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	9¢	$9	0x0e48df…
06-25 15:33:38	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	300	8¢	$24	0xda7ad4…
06-25 15:28:11	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	300	47¢	$141	0xb0e217…
06-25 15:26:38	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	163	49¢	$80	0x9e9eb5…
06-25 15:26:10	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	39	49¢	$19	0x168e2d…
06-25 15:26:01	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	98	49¢	$48	0x51421e…
06-25 15:22:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	501	38¢	$190	0x0faf89…
06-24 20:43:53	will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x40cbb3…
06-24 20:07:23	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	SELL	250	53¢	$133	0x10565f…
06-20 22:47:22	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x3ed413…
06-20 22:47:07	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	SELL	570	14¢	$81	0x742142…
06-20 22:14:14	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	570	10¢	$58	0x6c0449…
06-20 22:13:40	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xda831f…
06-20 10:26:53	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	251	82¢	$206	0xab297d…
06-20 09:58:52	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	115	82¢	$94	0x198450…
06-20 05:59:58	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	9	82¢	$7	0x8264c3…
06-20 05:06:17	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x06c50a…
06-20 05:04:46	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x568155…
06-20 05:03:25	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	23	76¢	$18	0xb8a366…
06-20 05:01:25	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x59f95c…
06-20 05:01:16	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x7f6c82…
06-20 04:54:16	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	121	61¢	$74	0x834bd4…
06-20 04:46:53	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xc91ef2…
06-20 04:46:35	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xe0b13a…
06-20 04:44:43	will turkiye reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120750	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x0eae5f…
06-19 21:01:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	250	92¢	$230	0xe42500…
06-19 17:00:32	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	250	54¢	$135	0x75b95c…
06-16 20:29:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,500	1¢	$15	0x7f6cb9…
06-14 22:51:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	427	73¢	$310	0x112892…
06-14 22:23:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x762d36…
06-14 22:23:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x7deb6b…
06-14 22:23:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	281	77¢	$215	0xead353…
06-12 06:21:52	will mikel merino score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	58	51¢	$29	0x19033d…
06-10 18:19:34	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	23	51¢	$12	0x8f2b8e…
06-10 18:12:04	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	39	51¢	$20	0x2bc4ba…
06-10 18:09:46	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xe556d7…
06-10 18:09:36	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x187cfc…
06-10 18:09:31	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x895401…
06-09 21:19:31	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	83	50¢	$41	0xfc1932…
06-09 15:14:24	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	952	10¢	$95	0x99973a…