Shameless-Temporary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

-$172

Hit rate

70.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,723

lifetime

Volume

$28.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-01-27

last 07-01 06:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

62% 33% +$24

Sports

12% 50% $-1

Crypto

10% — —

Tech

9% — —

Politics

8% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes		+800	$184	2¢	$12	$-172	07-01 06:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	34	$1.3K	1,283	1,283	+0	open	—	05-04 14:55
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	4	$1.3K	800	700	+100	open	—	05-13 19:03
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	16	$1.2K	738	728	+10	open	—	04-27 13:41
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	18	$1.1K	829	829	+0	open	—	04-06 10:07
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	11	$928	596	596	+0	open	—	06-01 17:11
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	20	$806	591	591	+0	open	—	04-12 19:46
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	7	$602	373	366	+7	open	—	04-30 18:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	5	$601	2,859	427	+2,432	open	—	06-16 20:29
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$557	374	374	+0	open	—	06-20 10:26
will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 75m and 80m	4	$519	302	302	+0	open	—	03-23 21:00
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	1	$503	0	524	-524	open	—	06-27 20:12
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	15	$495	2,418	0	+2,418	open	—	06-09 15:14
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	9	$429	493	493	+0	open	—	05-13 19:03
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	45	$407	5,615	200	+5,415	open	—	04-05 01:56
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	3	$383	677	0	+677	open	—	06-08 17:43
will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	7	$371	5,200	200	+5,000	open	—	04-18 16:42
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	7	$366	270	270	+0	open	—	05-22 05:48
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$365	250	250	+0	open	—	06-19 21:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$336	205	205	+0	open	—	04-23 12:54
will hoppers 3rd weekend box office be between 18m and 19pt5m	7	$335	484	0	+484	open	—	03-23 21:00
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?	3	$317	188	188	+0	open	—	05-09 14:49
Will "Left" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	3	$315	460	460	+0	open	—	05-21 19:27
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	2	$308	200	194	+6	open	—	04-24 14:29
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	2	$299	242	242	+0	open	—	04-24 10:32
will you me tuscany opening weekend box office be less than 8m	7	$292	325	325	+0	open	—	04-12 12:01
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	4	$288	600	0	+600	open	—	06-25 15:28
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	3	$285	500	0	+500	open	—	05-29 21:44
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be between 70m and 80m	6	$261	252	252	+0	open	—	04-12 04:04
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	13	$261	481	0	+481	open	—	05-15 21:47
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	11	$254	288	288	-0	open	—	04-27 22:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 08:13:59	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf95b94…
07-01 06:42:31	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9f9349…
07-01 06:38:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$9	0x117731…
06-30 04:29:37	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xe3864a…
06-30 04:27:29	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	56	71¢	$40	0x57325e…
06-29 17:55:04	Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	134	99¢	$132	0xef737d…
06-28 09:53:08	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	140	1¢	$1	0xadd785…
06-28 04:42:11	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	58¢	$175	0x18f2ca…
06-27 23:14:37	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$9	0x3d2c5b…
06-27 23:06:41	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9072ca…
06-27 23:01:41	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x811b0d…
06-27 22:23:34	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	37	55¢	$20	0x676847…
06-27 22:23:10	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x8cd45d…
06-27 21:53:13	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xf796a9…
06-27 20:59:32	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 goals marcus rashford gte1	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x4af0af…
06-27 20:59:26	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 goals bukayo saka gte1	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x41d4b8…
06-27 20:57:43	fifwc pan eng 2026 06 27 corners team away 7pt5	Over	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x3e66c5…
06-27 20:12:17	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	SELL	524	96¢	$503	0xe205a0…
06-27 20:03:46	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x7f9538…
06-27 19:15:32	will christian pulisic score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0xc14f9b…
06-27 04:33:11	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	41	1¢	$0	0x786efa…
06-27 04:17:08	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	66	1¢	$1	0xb2e385…
06-25 18:48:49	will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	No	SELL	100	45¢	$45	0x280650…
06-25 17:04:52	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	9¢	$9	0x0e48df…
06-25 15:33:38	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	300	8¢	$24	0xda7ad4…
06-25 15:28:11	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	300	47¢	$141	0xb0e217…
06-25 15:26:38	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	163	49¢	$80	0x9e9eb5…
06-25 15:26:10	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	39	49¢	$19	0x168e2d…
06-25 15:26:01	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	98	49¢	$48	0x51421e…
06-25 15:22:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	501	38¢	$190	0x0faf89…
06-24 20:43:53	will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x40cbb3…
06-24 20:07:23	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	SELL	250	53¢	$133	0x10565f…
06-20 22:47:22	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x3ed413…
06-20 22:47:07	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	SELL	570	14¢	$81	0x742142…
06-20 22:14:14	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	570	10¢	$58	0x6c0449…
06-20 22:13:40	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xda831f…
06-20 10:26:53	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	251	82¢	$206	0xab297d…
06-20 09:58:52	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	115	82¢	$94	0x198450…
06-20 05:59:58	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	9	82¢	$7	0x8264c3…
06-20 05:06:17	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x06c50a…
06-20 05:04:46	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x568155…
06-20 05:03:25	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	23	76¢	$18	0xb8a366…
06-20 05:01:25	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x59f95c…
06-20 05:01:16	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x7f6c82…
06-20 04:54:16	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	121	61¢	$74	0x834bd4…
06-20 04:46:53	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xc91ef2…
06-20 04:46:35	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xe0b13a…
06-20 04:44:43	will turkiye reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120750	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x0eae5f…
06-19 21:01:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	250	92¢	$230	0xe42500…
06-19 17:00:32	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	250	54¢	$135	0x75b95c…
06-16 20:29:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,500	1¢	$15	0x7f6cb9…
06-14 22:51:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	427	73¢	$310	0x112892…
06-14 22:23:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x762d36…
06-14 22:23:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x7deb6b…
06-14 22:23:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	281	77¢	$215	0xead353…
06-12 06:21:52	will mikel merino score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	58	51¢	$29	0x19033d…
06-10 18:19:34	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	23	51¢	$12	0x8f2b8e…
06-10 18:12:04	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	39	51¢	$20	0x2bc4ba…
06-10 18:09:46	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xe556d7…
06-10 18:09:36	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x187cfc…
06-10 18:09:31	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x895401…
06-09 21:19:31	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	83	50¢	$41	0xfc1932…
06-09 15:14:24	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	952	10¢	$95	0x99973a…
06-09 15:13:30	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0xc0288c…
06-09 13:39:28	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x2e6bdf…
06-09 12:13:34	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xb01ac1…
06-09 12:12:00	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x6379b6…
06-09 12:11:58	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xcf144b…
06-09 12:11:57	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	55	27¢	$15	0x25d586…
06-09 12:11:30	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xe2e88d…
06-09 12:11:13	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xf4b488…
06-09 12:11:07	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0xaca743…
06-09 12:09:45	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	21	27¢	$6	0x534a94…
06-09 12:03:48	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	241	27¢	$65	0xdebf67…
06-09 05:17:37	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	41	38¢	$16	0xf97969…
06-09 04:22:30	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	No	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x172813…
06-09 04:05:16	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	No	BUY	44	40¢	$18	0xa55a82…
06-09 04:04:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	136	52¢	$71	0x8a2e65…
06-08 17:43:57	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	150	52¢	$78	0x769ec8…
06-08 17:40:27	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	250	52¢	$130	0x3fd530…
06-07 15:35:55	will scott mctominay score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x1ae579…
06-07 15:31:18	will scott mctominay score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0x6eff8a…
06-07 15:21:27	will turkiye reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120750	Yes	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0xeb88be…
06-07 15:20:45	will morocco reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120744	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x5a4109…
06-07 15:19:25	will ivory coast reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120753	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x7045b2…
06-07 15:17:46	will canada reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120739	Yes	BUY	250	42¢	$105	0x97776a…
06-07 15:11:07	will mexico reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134467	Yes	BUY	250	27¢	$67	0x6c90be…
06-07 15:09:40	will argentina reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134503	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x500d88…
06-07 15:07:58	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	Yes	BUY	70	29¢	$20	0x6dde30…
06-07 15:03:19	Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	197	30¢	$59	0x41ff81…
06-07 15:02:40	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x2ce21f…
06-06 18:40:42	Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	119	8¢	$10	0x2a15d2…
06-06 18:36:48	Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x0c046f…
06-06 17:54:51	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	No	BUY	278	63¢	$175	0xe13108…
06-05 20:28:48	will son heung min score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	116	65¢	$75	0xf3cc3b…
06-05 17:18:42	will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xf8893b…
06-05 09:28:16	will tim cook say privilege during the apple wwdc 2026 event on june 8th	Yes	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xe66377…
06-05 09:24:31	will apple announce a new product line during the wwdc 2026 keynote	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa049d2…
06-05 07:44:34	will scott mctominay score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x877277…
06-04 21:34:15	Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0xf6f22d…