Shameless-Temporary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.53K

Unrealized P&L

+$100

Hit rate

62.3%

Resolved

536

Trades

2,932

lifetime

Volume

$65.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$1.44K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-25 15:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Other

75% 30% -$4,179

Politics

8% 37% -$949

Sports

7% 27% -$994

Tech

6% 52% -$1,254

Crypto

4% 46% +$896

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-602	-$512	98¢	$-589	-$77	05-21 05:15
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+1,668	$515	28¢	$459	-$56	09-24 05:57
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	+364	$124	96¢	$350	+$226	07-08 07:28
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-245	-$53	18¢	$-45	+$8	05-01 10:19
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	+0	$0	29¢	$0	$0	07-19 15:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	24	$6.8K	5,859	5,859	+0	Yes	+$3,675	05-27 20:00
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?	34	$1.9K	5,452	5,452	+0	No	-$1,845	06-25 10:30
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	25	$1.6K	3,471	0	+3,471	No	-$1,587	08-03 02:01
Will "Minions & Monsters" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 14m?	32	$1.6K	3,163	0	+3,163	No	-$1,568	07-20 00:17
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	10	$1.5K	910	910	+0	Yes	+$311	06-08 19:58
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 1?	27	$1.4K	1,748	1,748	+0	Yes	+$1,109	05-01 15:50
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	34	$1.3K	1,283	1,283	+0	Yes	+$771	05-04 14:55
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?	4	$1.3K	800	700	+100	No	+$135	05-13 19:03
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	16	$1.2K	738	728	+10	Yes	+$246	04-27 13:41
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 190m and 200m	18	$1.1K	829	829	+0	Yes	+$507	04-06 10:07
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	11	$928	596	596	+0	No	+$247	06-01 17:11
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	20	$806	591	591	+0	Yes	+$10	04-12 19:46
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?	17	$752	506	506	+0	Yes	+$210	05-04 16:03
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	3	$735	500	500	+0	open	—	08-03 01:43
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?	5	$668	420	420	-0	Yes	+$163	06-01 18:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	7	$653	2,927	427	+2,500	Yes	-$32	06-16 20:29
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	2	$644	248	524	-276	No	+$86	06-27 20:12
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	5	$641	500	500	+0	open	—	08-03 01:59
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	7	$602	373	366	+7	No	+$130	04-30 18:43
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$565	558	558	+0	No	+$211	06-08 02:35
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$557	374	374	+0	Yes	+$57	06-20 10:26
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	3	$542	390	390	+0	Yes	+$230	08-03 01:38
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	4	$521	424	341	+83	No	+$3	05-11 17:20
will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 75m and 80m	4	$519	302	302	+0	No	+$84	03-23 21:00
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?	5	$517	400	400	+0	Yes	+$123	05-17 05:26
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	3	$515	1,668	0	+1,668	open	—	09-24 05:57
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$512	0	602	-602	open	—	05-21 05:15
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	15	$495	2,418	0	+2,418	Yes	-$495	06-09 15:14
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?	12	$482	688	0	+688	No	-$482	06-04 14:12
Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	3	$469	637	0	+637	No	-$469	10-12 13:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 15:21:09	Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	153	9¢	$14	0xae4aad…
10-12 13:54:32	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x3b288b…
10-12 11:36:54	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	BUY	235	73¢	$172	0x34a2e1…
10-12 08:34:30	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	44¢	$68	0xa04de3…
10-12 08:20:04	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	BUY	302	75¢	$228	0xa35d46…
10-12 08:09:49	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	Yes	SELL	332	92¢	$305	0x9dd043…
10-11 22:03:05	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	Yes	BUY	79	0¢	$0	0xffcd10…
10-11 21:22:28	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	Yes	SELL	202	90¢	$182	0xaa4550…
10-11 21:07:17	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf108bd…
10-11 20:54:49	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x503ca5…
10-11 20:17:01	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14m?	Yes	BUY	196	0¢	$0	0xec0fe2…
10-11 20:15:52	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xeb110e…
10-10 20:49:34	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xac2752…
10-10 20:25:46	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x27d1a8…
10-10 20:25:42	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	108	23¢	$25	0x76fa44…
10-10 20:25:15	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	Yes	BUY	1,770	9¢	$159	0x7426e1…
10-10 17:40:22	Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xf2129f…
10-10 17:21:51	Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	Yes	BUY	202	48¢	$97	0x85d37d…
10-10 17:21:33	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	219	37¢	$81	0x624a8f…
10-09 05:50:53	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	690	3¢	$18	0x54b826…
10-09 05:50:42	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0xc3a6c1…
10-09 05:50:03	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	200	39¢	$79	0x881533…
10-02 14:28:44	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	36	20¢	$7	0xf56e28…
10-02 13:38:51	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x5cdffe…
10-02 10:57:06	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	171	29¢	$49	0x8ed87c…
10-01 12:04:23	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	42	30¢	$13	0x700769…
10-01 10:20:06	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?	Yes	BUY	55	15¢	$8	0x15894c…
09-27 06:57:24	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x5c62b2…
09-27 06:56:21	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	90	39¢	$35	0xa83909…
09-27 04:30:39	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x916c60…
09-27 04:22:39	Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?	Yes	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0xa616a0…
09-24 06:02:48	Will "Primetime" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x4092dd…
09-24 06:02:39	Will "Primetime" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x6138b0…
09-24 06:02:35	Will "Primetime" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x100366…
09-24 06:01:18	Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xf818d1…
09-24 05:57:44	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x445323…
08-30 11:21:46	Will "The Dog Stars" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xfd81e8…
08-30 11:20:16	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	574	31¢	$178	0xf95620…
08-28 14:50:42	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	62¢	$18	0xa27030…
08-28 14:47:46	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by august 31 2026	No	BUY	558	70¢	$391	0x3bb2b6…
08-24 18:57:21	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0x03c29e…
08-23 21:55:01	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	80	32¢	$26	0xeccb4c…
08-23 21:55:00	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	350	32¢	$112	0x9ad57f…
08-23 21:55:00	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x47ef7e…
08-23 21:36:21	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	51	32¢	$16	0xbada95…
08-23 17:47:03	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$17	0x8e009a…
08-23 17:34:25	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	311	35¢	$108	0x5717c3…
08-03 02:01:30	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	777	54¢	$420	0x7167fe…
08-03 01:59:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	500	76¢	$380	0x4633b5…
08-03 01:58:57	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,822	0¢	$4	0x49f6e3…
08-03 01:58:32	Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	319	0¢	$1	0xa747fc…
08-03 01:58:12	Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0xa001af…
08-03 01:58:03	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	45	92¢	$41	0x25f037…
08-03 01:47:42	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	150	54¢	$81	0xec2e9e…
08-03 01:44:27	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	36	54¢	$19	0xec9582…
08-03 01:44:03	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	55	54¢	$30	0x105d34…
08-03 01:43:42	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	107	54¢	$57	0xf17fc9…
08-03 01:43:18	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	213	90¢	$192	0x0b0a57…
08-03 01:39:54	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0xd80133…
08-03 01:38:33	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x936296…
08-03 01:37:08	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	300	55¢	$165	0xfa2dbe…
08-03 01:24:18	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	99	55¢	$55	0x839f99…
08-03 01:20:11	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	69	50¢	$35	0x4c3356…
08-03 01:03:30	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	287	90¢	$258	0x0ae99a…
08-03 01:01:03	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	29	50¢	$14	0x82b5d9…
08-03 00:59:53	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	320	50¢	$160	0xb9acaf…
08-03 00:59:53	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	51	50¢	$26	0xa3d655…
08-03 00:55:27	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf4af6b…
08-03 00:55:08	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	84	55¢	$46	0x6679c4…
08-03 00:53:33	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	229	50¢	$114	0x0b576f…
08-03 00:51:32	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xf9b895…
08-03 00:51:32	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xf5876d…
08-03 00:51:21	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	334	48¢	$159	0xcc5de0…
08-03 00:49:17	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	164	34¢	$56	0x4401f9…
08-03 00:47:59	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x9a4f1e…
08-03 00:45:59	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	63	22¢	$14	0x2fd26b…
08-03 00:44:21	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	338	21¢	$71	0x008856…
08-03 00:43:15	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	63	21¢	$13	0x5b5241…
08-02 21:33:09	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xa2cf0e…
08-02 21:03:50	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	305	100¢	$303	0x916960…
08-02 20:18:17	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 57m?	Yes	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0xc8a614…
08-02 20:16:03	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x157154…
08-02 20:15:48	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	Yes	SELL	382	99¢	$378	0x50ce04…
08-02 08:59:05	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xb61565…
08-02 08:58:21	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	4,822	0¢	$5	0x473b4d…
08-02 08:54:17	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x8c98be…
08-02 03:54:45	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 350m?	Yes	BUY	305	4¢	$12	0xaf4799…
07-31 10:15:05	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	Yes	BUY	390	40¢	$156	0xea18f0…
07-29 08:00:12	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x0fc979…
07-29 07:59:33	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x82078b…
07-26 09:16:10	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?	Yes	BUY	480	2¢	$10	0x49b48c…
07-24 17:02:01	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x00267d…
07-24 17:01:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x890ae0…
07-24 17:00:48	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	663	0¢	$1	0x7e305b…
07-24 17:00:46	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	457	0¢	$0	0x858771…
07-24 10:52:09	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?	Yes	BUY	51	41¢	$21	0xfe8fed…
07-24 10:52:09	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?	Yes	BUY	36	41¢	$15	0x4478c5…
07-24 10:45:54	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?	Yes	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0x3d8c98…
07-24 04:53:48	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	300	70¢	$210	0x927f5c…
07-24 02:56:07	Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xc682d8…