Insignificant-Mystery — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.3%

Resolved

Trades

445

lifetime

Volume

$1.68K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 07-31 14:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

71% — —

Other

28% 60% +$2

Sports

1% 0% $-4

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$593	33,479	0	+33,479	open	—	02-28 02:45
us forces enter iran by march 7	4	$60	131	0	+131	open	—	03-03 15:57
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	4	$45	24	24	+0	open	—	04-14 23:03
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	04-01 04:49
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	7	$34	22	22	+0	open	—	04-28 00:01
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	11	$31	34	34	+0	open	—	04-07 14:30
epl lee wol 2026 04 18 lee	2	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	04-18 16:12
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	3	$25	5	30	-25	open	—	06-19 03:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-11 04:17
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	3	$21	13	13	+0	open	—	04-27 11:12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	7	$19	13	13	+0	No	+$1	04-15 14:27
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	04-14 15:18
Kash Patel out by April 30?	3	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	04-30 15:27
highest temperature in mexico city on april 19 2026 25c	8	$19	14	14	+0	open	—	04-20 07:59
will iran strike uae again in march	9	$17	17	17	+0	open	—	04-02 15:41
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	27	$16	148	148	+0	open	—	04-12 11:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	05-25 22:11
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	03-08 19:43
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	6	$15	137	137	+0	open	—	04-08 21:06
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	9	$14	4,840	4,840	+0	open	—	04-30 14:09
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	4	$14	15	11	+4	open	—	04-15 04:20
rusixnat ita eng 2026 03 07 ita	4	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	03-07 19:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$13	178	178	+0	open	—	03-01 01:58
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	4	$13	13	13	+0	open	—	03-27 02:22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	04-12 19:43
pakistan military action against afghanistan by april 15	4	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	04-15 00:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$12	36	36	+0	open	—	04-05 04:50
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-07 23:25
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	3	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-21 15:57
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-15 04:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-31 14:19:56	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd43bac…
07-27 09:18:37	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0xa8b592…
07-26 16:33:04	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x5f3a98…
07-24 08:03:22	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x9eb0f8…
07-23 21:32:49	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x573e1b…
07-23 21:31:54	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xc126ba…
07-23 01:29:52	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xac4c14…
07-12 03:21:49	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x9c6a7a…
07-12 02:58:22	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x41281e…
06-29 18:56:50	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x49d372…
06-25 02:56:53	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xe06562…
06-20 01:10:55	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 btts	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0xb7cddd…
06-20 00:54:46	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 btts	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0xad4fb9…
06-19 03:11:20	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x69a523…
06-18 22:10:05	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd32ac3…
06-14 22:43:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xdb8002…
06-13 18:52:13	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x2b39d0…
06-12 09:55:19	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4abbcf…
06-12 02:13:51	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x676bf0…
06-10 15:53:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	83¢	$21	0x85d21a…
06-10 14:29:06	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16	23¢	$4	0x8ec9f2…
06-01 20:09:14	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa85172…
05-28 12:37:40	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xe74461…
05-27 21:44:44	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xca4129…
05-27 04:43:17	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x931e0e…
05-26 19:36:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x19f3e1…
05-26 18:27:06	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x8eca1c…
05-25 22:11:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xfa8e61…
05-24 22:08:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	31	17¢	$5	0x70535a…
05-24 01:27:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x6d3018…
05-23 22:02:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x2d546a…
05-23 22:01:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x38cb7f…
05-23 18:05:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xd8d408…
05-23 18:02:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xaf3695…
05-21 20:47:11	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0x8c44fa…
05-20 19:16:56	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x636117…
05-20 18:07:48	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x3afa2f…
05-17 00:28:30	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xa16967…
05-16 01:08:34	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x50e473…
05-14 17:32:54	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x29ee5e…
05-13 03:28:50	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xfa0cfb…
05-12 15:38:48	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x59f5ae…
05-09 10:42:39	Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xfe85ba…
05-08 16:42:49	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0xb4c024…
05-08 15:33:01	Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xdd8e74…
05-08 10:43:02	Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xcd986b…
05-06 21:08:30	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8b8c4b…
05-06 12:52:48	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x65a9bc…
05-04 15:21:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xea6a97…
05-04 10:24:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x040bf9…
05-02 12:18:14	Ipswich Town FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x9e40fc…
05-02 12:02:14	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	143	0¢	$0	0x7255a0…
05-01 20:10:18	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x04136a…
05-01 01:10:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x648433…
04-30 15:27:52	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8e3e07…
04-30 14:09:00	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	2,090	0¢	$2	0xf90e23…
04-30 07:43:00	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	750	0¢	$2	0xa6cc5e…
04-29 21:47:56	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x6485f9…
04-29 18:32:28	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$1	0x50299e…
04-29 18:32:14	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x6ed507…
04-28 13:00:08	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	340	0¢	$1	0xe60232…
04-28 06:49:48	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7be386…
04-28 00:01:54	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xfb662b…
04-27 22:28:56	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xe6295e…
04-27 19:44:34	Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x46268b…
04-27 19:41:44	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$4	0xaa2334…
04-27 19:14:54	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x17bfde…
04-27 19:04:44	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xbdf220…
04-27 18:07:04	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf6eafd…
04-27 15:16:08	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0xed6f13…
04-27 14:49:18	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xd7fd78…
04-27 11:12:10	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	SELL	11	84¢	$9	0x5053f7…
04-27 11:08:28	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x78b2ad…
04-26 22:43:00	Will Andoni Iraola be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x9a0d12…
04-26 19:37:18	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x476ce7…
04-26 17:51:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$2	0xa065b5…
04-26 13:46:28	Will Andoni Iraola be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xda37ec…
04-26 13:10:26	Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 2 Leeds United FC?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x6d25b7…
04-26 11:21:50	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x06e2b0…
04-26 09:50:34	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x8893d1…
04-24 20:55:54	Will Leicester City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x7c1d1f…
04-24 20:55:14	Will Leicester City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xe962e0…
04-24 09:05:38	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc2685e…
04-23 18:34:42	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0xfd8399…
04-23 18:31:58	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xef0bdf…
04-23 18:29:28	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x60fc0a…
04-23 18:00:32	Will Oliver Glasner be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0xabdc81…
04-23 18:00:16	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x62ec60…
04-23 18:00:16	Will Oliver Glasner be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x184ddb…
04-23 18:00:10	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xf0614d…
04-23 18:00:10	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xe9a6c2…
04-23 18:00:10	Will Oliver Glasner be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x891d70…
04-23 18:00:08	Will Oliver Glasner be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x31ffed…
04-23 18:00:00	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x35a051…
04-23 17:59:58	Will Oliver Glasner be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xbc6bf0…
04-23 17:59:54	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x60829a…
04-23 17:59:54	Will Oliver Glasner be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x05a3d4…
04-23 17:59:44	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x9848ce…
04-23 17:59:44	Will Oliver Glasner be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x019cfb…
04-23 17:59:40	Will Julian Nagelsmann be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x24152a…