Insignificant-Mystery — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$761

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

47.9%

Resolved

279

Trades

1,186

lifetime

Volume

$3.05K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$27

11 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 10-27 22:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Other

47% 42% -$82

Politics

41% 74% -$587

Sports

11% 28% -$86

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$5

Crypto

0% 50% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+10	$4	62¢	$6	+$2	09-08 13:06
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+40	$4	12¢	$5	+$1	07-07 11:52
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+10	$5	38¢	$4	-$1	09-13 12:02
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+5	$3	76¢	$4	+$0	10-01 19:46
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+100	$2	4¢	$4	+$1	05-18 03:35
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+5	$0	43¢	$2	+$2	07-10 21:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+5	$1	20¢	$1	$0	10-12 12:19
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+60	$4	1¢	$1	-$4	07-11 00:13
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+250	$0	0¢	$1	+$1	10-06 20:13
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+30	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	07-11 10:19
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+50	-$1	1¢	$0	+$1	07-07 12:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$593	33,479	0	+33,479	No	-$593	02-28 02:45
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	9	$69	75	75	+0	Yes	+$1	05-15 21:37
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	18	$66	66	66	+0	No	$0	07-04 09:12
us forces enter iran by march 7	4	$60	131	0	+131	No	-$6	03-03 15:57
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May?	12	$57	1,214	0	+1,214	No	-$57	06-11 02:02
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$48	37	37	+0	No	+$0	07-19 21:24
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	4	$45	24	24	+0	No	+$3	04-14 23:03
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$44	24	24	+0	No	+$4	04-01 04:49
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	7	$41	30	30	+0	Yes	+$5	06-19 03:11
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	8	$40	70	20	+50	No	-$23	10-03 22:51
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in more than 6 days?	5	$35	55	0	+55	Yes	+$20	05-27 16:07
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	7	$34	22	22	+0	No	+$4	04-28 00:01
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	11	$31	34	34	+0	Yes	+$11	04-07 14:30
epl lee wol 2026 04 18 lee	2	$30	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	04-18 16:12
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	11	$29	120	120	+0	open	—	10-17 12:22
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	13	$28	397	397	+0	No	+$10	06-14 18:35
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?	6	$27	46	46	+0	No	+$3	07-03 09:23
Will Ant Middleton not summit Everest by June 30?	13	$27	144	144	+0	No	-$11	05-27 15:53
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	8	$25	40	30	+10	Yes	-$3	10-26 10:39
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	11	$25	77	40	+37	No	-$6	10-07 05:50
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	15	$25	120	120	+0	No	-$2	07-03 09:57
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	1	$22	30	0	+30	open	—	10-18 17:04
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$21	0	83	-83	Yes	-$62	07-16 06:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$21	11	11	+0	Yes	+$1	04-11 04:17
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	3	$21	13	13	+0	Yes	+$1	04-27 11:12
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	14	$20	180	180	+0	open	—	10-27 10:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	7	$19	13	13	+0	No	+$1	04-15 14:27
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$19	35	35	+0	No	+$5	07-14 20:42
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$1	04-14 15:18
Kash Patel out by April 30?	3	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$1	04-30 15:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:56:08	Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x2a47db…
10-27 10:39:11	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	SELL	34	3¢	$1	0x17296b…
10-26 20:20:41	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x209466…
10-26 16:53:30	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?	Yes	SELL	75	0¢	$0	0xb08b14…
10-26 16:53:15	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	SELL	146	3¢	$4	0x92c465…
10-26 14:23:36	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x989524…
10-26 10:39:21	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x9afd13…
10-26 10:19:20	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x59d017…
10-25 14:13:38	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x8ca060…
10-25 14:13:29	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0xbba7d1…
10-24 16:14:03	Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x07a2ce…
10-23 02:00:33	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0xf1336d…
10-22 18:31:15	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x7db788…
10-22 13:42:02	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x83beff…
10-22 11:43:29	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-22?	No	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x53639a…
10-22 10:41:38	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x95b189…
10-21 19:18:54	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x7f03b6…
10-20 10:00:15	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x0c0fc0…
10-20 01:22:57	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0x5e4b93…
10-19 02:25:33	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x13cafc…
10-19 02:25:15	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xf86114…
10-18 17:08:17	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$1	0x092205…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xfcf62f…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x9a5790…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x92555e…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x61f86b…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x33f4e1…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x24267f…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x07fe9b…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x03f10f…
10-18 17:04:39	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x36ddd8…
10-17 12:22:29	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	SELL	120	11¢	$13	0x2bbe66…
10-16 15:23:09	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0xcd03d3…
10-16 14:40:42	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xb6040a…
10-16 14:40:40	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x652f91…
10-16 14:40:40	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x45f66e…
10-16 12:53:51	Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xef855a…
10-16 08:27:46	Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0xc8da03…
10-16 02:52:03	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x664bf0…
10-16 02:52:03	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x0aef92…
10-16 02:52:01	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x91d67b…
10-16 02:52:01	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x90d2ee…
10-16 02:50:03	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x8e36f8…
10-16 02:50:01	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xbcda71…
10-16 02:50:01	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x44d6ba…
10-16 02:46:13	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x9c9aa8…
10-16 02:46:13	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x53becd…
10-16 02:46:13	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x506b12…
10-16 02:46:13	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x3b7fff…
10-16 02:45:10	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x309067…
10-16 02:45:09	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf90cad…
10-16 02:44:51	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf6a18f…
10-16 02:44:51	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xdc42cc…
10-16 02:44:51	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xd44920…
10-16 02:44:51	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xbc00a1…
10-16 02:44:51	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2a4e49…
10-16 02:44:51	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x1a18b0…
10-16 02:44:13	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe0b538…
10-16 02:44:13	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xd31d9a…
10-16 02:44:13	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x4fed02…
10-16 02:44:13	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x46721e…
10-16 02:44:13	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x3eb210…
10-15 21:19:56	Will Brighton & Hove Albion win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xa114c8…
10-15 15:32:02	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x87d2a3…
10-15 15:30:59	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x60db53…
10-15 15:30:59	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0x49a107…
10-15 13:03:47	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x07af29…
10-15 12:08:08	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x29f7b7…
10-15 11:28:34	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0x92d968…
10-15 10:58:00	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x4c685e…
10-15 10:01:32	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xd6dd76…
10-15 10:01:31	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x42be4d…
10-15 09:56:29	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xfb5407…
10-15 09:56:29	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xe7d5c2…
10-15 09:56:29	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xd20395…
10-15 09:56:29	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xcf1a88…
10-15 09:56:29	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xc2a05b…
10-15 09:56:29	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x1382ad…
10-15 09:03:35	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x2f8e19…
10-15 09:03:35	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2defd8…
10-15 08:51:52	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe5ca09…
10-15 08:51:52	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x498bbb…
10-15 08:51:52	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2f34ed…
10-15 08:02:37	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xbad6a8…
10-15 08:02:37	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x976d63…
10-15 08:02:37	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x6616f2…
10-15 08:02:37	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	39	12¢	$5	0x615e59…
10-15 07:59:53	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x97ec4b…
10-15 07:16:41	Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x81364d…
10-15 07:16:41	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x170c6d…
10-15 07:14:53	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x8a9bc7…
10-15 06:32:58	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xf86db5…
10-15 06:32:58	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xc583d0…
10-15 03:47:16	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0xcba4fa…
10-15 03:47:16	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x5e2545…
10-15 01:08:53	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xc4d742…
10-15 00:53:47	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	39	8¢	$3	0x3ae5c4…
10-14 22:45:24	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x7ada9b…
10-14 22:45:22	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0xc34cf6…
10-14 22:45:22	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in October?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x3d4d4d…