Realized P&L
+$3.08K
Unrealized P&L
+$31
Hit rate
71.3%
Resolved
729
Trades
2,984
lifetime
Volume
$206.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$69
Open exposure
$1.21K
24 positions
First seen
2026-01-13
last 10-28 22:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 202 days
Categories
Politics
72% 77% +$1,616
Other
28% 70% +$1,508
Sports
1% 53% -$48
Tech
0% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
74 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +306 $235 80¢ $243 +$8 10-18 23:26
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? No +210 $191 99¢ $208 +$17 10-16 12:46
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +145 $124 87¢ $126 +$2 10-27 10:16
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +109 $100 96¢ $104 +$4 10-21 13:24
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +73 $60 84¢ $61 +$1 10-25 10:59
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? Yes +59 $54 100¢ $59 +$5 10-13 22:20
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +44 $40 98¢ $44 +$4 10-16 16:15
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +47 $30 88¢ $41 +$11 09-22 20:03
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +49 $35 80¢ $39 +$4 10-13 20:25
Iran leadership change by November 30? Yes +482 $50 8¢ $36 -$14 10-20 20:28
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +34 $31 99¢ $34 +$3 10-05 20:56
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? No +34 $30 94¢ $32 +$2 10-20 20:35
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? Yes +27 $26 84¢ $23 -$3 10-04 18:10
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? No +22 $12 100¢ $21 +$9 10-02 15:48
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes +25 $20 74¢ $19 -$1 10-20 20:34
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +25 $20 72¢ $18 -$2 10-22 17:46
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +23 $20 76¢ $17 -$3 10-28 12:34
next white house press secretary announced by december 31 2026 Yes +25 $20 66¢ $16 -$4 10-17 12:50
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes +82 $24 18¢ $14 -$9 10-05 07:57
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +17 $15 71¢ $12 -$3 08-19 18:06
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -12 -$10 97¢ $-11 -$1 04-29 20:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +11 $10 98¢ $11 +$1 10-13 20:09
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +11 $10 92¢ $10 +$0 10-21 10:34
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +7 $5 56¢ $4 -$1 06-04 21:40