Defensive-Academics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.20K

Unrealized P&L

-$140

Hit rate

92.2%

Resolved

7,038

Trades

19,711

lifetime

Volume

$586.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

$103

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-27 10:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 245 days

Categories

Other

54% 83% +$6,144

Crypto

45% 83% -$3,129

Sports

1% 76% -$96

Politics

0% 100% +$279

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 783 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	No		+200	$81	30¢	$60	-$21	08-13 18:33
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No		+100	$18	19¢	$19	+$1	06-28 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	—	+11	$10	99¢	$11	+$1	10-27 11:53
will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	Yes		+100	$35	8¢	$8	-$28	07-02 23:03
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes		+1,070	$100	1¢	$6	-$94	07-03 08:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
f1 japanese grand prix winner piastri 2026 03 29	21	$3.2K	1,711	1,711	+0	No	+$165	03-29 06:16
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?	23	$1.9K	1,022	1,022	-0	No	+$22	06-16 05:07
highest temperature in nyc on february 20 2026 34 35f	8	$1.8K	914	914	+0	No	+$21	02-20 18:37
ethereum up or down march 13 1pm et	5	$1.8K	898	898	+0	Down	+$29	03-13 17:56
highest temperature in wellington on march 16 2026 17c	5	$1.8K	880	880	+0	No	+$6	03-15 21:33
highest temperature in atlanta on february 16 2026 64forhigher	40	$1.6K	813	899	-86	Yes	+$77	02-16 18:02
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 12:00 UTC	3	$1.6K	800	800	+0	Up	+$7	06-09 12:14
highest temperature in miami on march 2 2026 75forbelow	10	$1.6K	818	818	-0	No	+$53	03-02 13:46
solana up or down march 30 2026 4am et	39	$1.6K	802	801	+1	Up	+$6	03-30 08:51
ethereum up or down march 9 9am et	10	$1.6K	800	800	+0	Up	+$33	03-09 13:58
highest temperature in atlanta on april 10 2026 74 75f	11	$1.6K	820	819	+2	No	-$14	04-10 18:38
highest temperature in chicago on march 10 2026 64 65f	36	$1.5K	799	799	+0	No	+$37	03-10 14:11
xrp up or down march 1 8am et	10	$1.5K	749	749	+0	Up	+$9	03-01 13:57
solana up or down march 9 1am et	13	$1.5K	734	734	+0	Up	+$15	03-09 05:56
solana up or down february 28 9am et	15	$1.4K	700	700	+0	Down	+$46	02-28 14:59
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 17?	23	$1.3K	707	707	+0	No	-$10	05-16 18:55
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-13 12:00 UTC	6	$1.3K	700	700	+0	Up	+$55	03-13 15:59
highest temperature in dallas on february 16 2026 68 69f	18	$1.3K	690	690	-0	No	+$24	02-16 21:55
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	14	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$278	05-04 03:50
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 7?	12	$1.2K	596	596	+0	No	+$0	05-07 10:38
solana up or down march 1 9am et	11	$1.1K	570	570	+0	Down	+$10	03-01 14:58
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	17	$1.1K	842	842	+0	open	—	08-14 16:07
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	9	$1.1K	661	661	+0	open	—	07-07 14:23
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 3 2026 25corbelow	17	$1.1K	1,107	545	+562	No	-$24	03-03 18:05
highest temperature in seattle on march 8 2026 56 57f	10	$1.1K	528	578	-50	No	+$21	03-09 05:43
highest temperature in chicago on march 11 2026 50 51f	11	$1.1K	559	559	+0	No	+$37	03-11 20:37
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 17?	16	$1.1K	730	385	+345	No	+$53	08-17 04:05
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1?	17	$1.0K	659	431	+229	Yes	-$227	05-01 18:40
highest temperature in toronto on march 3 2026 0c	4	$1.0K	525	525	+0	No	+$17	03-03 17:01
highest temperature in london on february 27 2026 11c	9	$1.0K	1,061	0	+1,061	No	+$29	02-26 21:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xb09d55…
10-27 11:51:27	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x9d98d0…
10-27 11:46:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 29?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0xee96a5…
10-27 11:44:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 29?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xccc9ca…
10-27 11:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa24f59…
10-27 11:42:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 29?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xd6460c…
10-27 11:41:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x173df1…
10-27 11:33:42	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on October 27?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xa451ab…
10-27 11:28:00	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on October 29?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xfe4937…
10-27 11:25:17	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x24da55…
10-27 11:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6dfaa4…
10-27 11:20:06	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on October 27?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x7f4a78…
10-27 11:18:21	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on October 28?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x872e53…
10-27 11:17:42	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 27?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x9c8233…
10-27 11:17:32	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on October 27?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xc35ee9…
10-27 11:15:14	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 27?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb913b1…
10-27 11:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x2c5b63…
10-27 11:12:08	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x2198d8…
10-27 11:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 27?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5d00e0…
10-27 11:10:11	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on October 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x84a963…
10-27 11:10:06	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on October 28?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xd613d5…
10-27 11:09:27	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on October 27?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xdaacbf…
10-27 11:09:06	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on October 27?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8f34d8…
10-27 11:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 28?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x5493fc…
10-27 11:07:17	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x6d22a9…
10-27 11:02:27	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 27?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xef831d…
10-27 11:00:59	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xbf9bbe…
10-27 10:58:27	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x60fe3a…
10-27 10:58:20	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 27?	No	BUY	17	64¢	$11	0x7b09e9…
10-27 10:45:51	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 28?	No	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0xbf5ab9…
10-27 10:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7c697b…
10-27 10:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x7dc86f…
10-27 10:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x6d4f36…
10-27 10:43:11	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x17fd86…
10-27 10:42:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	82	1¢	$1	0x55a393…
10-27 10:41:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 27?	No	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xde58a5…
10-27 10:39:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 27?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x3993fa…
10-27 10:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe2ba8b…
10-27 10:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x402a34…
10-27 10:35:24	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2e46f9…
10-27 10:34:18	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on October 28?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xa8b179…
10-27 10:33:44	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x88af43…
10-27 10:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 29?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xfb058b…
10-27 10:30:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 28?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x2c745f…
10-27 10:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x45e297…
10-27 10:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x6ddd31…
10-27 10:27:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 28?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x261fa8…
10-27 10:26:20	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x42cddd…
10-27 10:25:59	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 27?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x31b712…
10-27 10:23:44	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0x65f2a7…
10-27 10:23:44	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	80	0¢	$0	0x28c24c…
10-27 10:23:38	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xabe17b…
10-27 10:21:15	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C on October 29?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x776171…
10-27 10:19:27	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x45fc32…
10-27 10:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x19d471…
10-27 10:16:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 28?	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0x5aa3af…
10-27 10:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xff0894…
10-27 10:13:42	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on October 29?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0x7724b1…
10-27 10:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb15081…
10-27 10:11:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	45	8¢	$4	0x626b97…
10-27 10:10:26	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on October 29?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xfe4928…
10-27 10:08:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 28?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0xbeb478…
10-27 10:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x7900f7…
10-27 10:06:20	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 29?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x24a9b0…
10-27 10:06:05	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 29?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x68f817…
10-27 10:02:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x86abb2…
10-27 10:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 28?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x2b4c01…
10-27 09:58:59	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x792525…
10-27 09:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x6a6ba0…
10-27 09:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x33ec80…
10-27 09:54:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 29?	No	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0x6ff4e2…
10-27 09:53:14	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x936125…
10-27 09:53:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 28?	No	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x49c400…
10-27 09:52:41	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 28?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x1363f1…
10-27 09:50:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x8f1d71…
10-27 09:44:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	83¢	$1	0x8c1a40…
10-27 09:43:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x56064e…
10-27 09:37:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x80931d…
10-27 09:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x4ff5ea…
10-27 08:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xf841c3…
10-27 08:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x2f8914…
10-27 08:43:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2cb6ca…
10-27 08:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4d1313…
10-27 08:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x271ace…
10-27 08:32:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xfe9d39…
10-27 08:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xabcddd…
10-27 08:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x3d19eb…
10-27 08:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x0620eb…
10-27 07:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xef94a2…
10-27 07:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x7aec26…
10-27 07:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x96e18e…
10-27 07:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6e6b3d…
10-27 07:36:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x3a5d8d…
10-27 07:31:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xbb6b9f…
10-27 07:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x530480…
10-27 07:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xef547e…
10-27 07:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xdf41dd…
10-27 07:06:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7a1ff8…
10-27 07:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x346b2e…
10-27 06:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x09a173…