Agonizing-Proportion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$107

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

520

Trades

951

lifetime

Volume

$2.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 09-30 20:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 52% -$66

Other

15% 58% -$52

Politics

2% 38% -$2

Sports

1% 75% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$39	21	21	+0	No	+$3	03-04 11:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 06:00 UTC	15	$26	86	0	+86	Up	-$26	04-02 06:05
lol wb al 2026 03 05	3	$25	15	15	+0	Weibo Gaming	+$5	03-05 13:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 07:05 UTC	2	$23	15	15	+1	Up	+$7	04-14 07:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 13:45 UTC	3	$22	22	14	+7	Up	+$2	04-15 13:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 18:55 UTC	4	$21	17	16	+0	Up	+$0	04-15 18:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 05:15 UTC	2	$19	15	14	+1	Up	+$10	04-12 05:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 05:25 UTC	6	$18	30	0	+30	Down	+$12	04-02 05:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 13:40 UTC	2	$17	12	11	+0	Down	+$2	04-15 13:41
val gm ag1 2026 03 08	3	$17	15	15	+0	All Gamers	+$13	03-08 23:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 08:50 UTC	2	$15	11	11	+0	Up	+$5	04-07 08:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 05:30 UTC	1	$15	41	0	+41	Down	-$15	04-12 05:34
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	6	$15	16	16	+0	Down	+$1	05-04 10:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 11:00 UTC	2	$15	8	8	+0	Up	$0	04-15 11:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 06:35 UTC	2	$15	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	04-07 06:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 08:10 UTC	2	$15	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	04-07 08:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 09:45 UTC	2	$15	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	04-07 09:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 07:10 UTC	3	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$4	04-07 07:14
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 3?	2	$14	8	8	+0	No	+$1	08-03 07:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 05:25 UTC	1	$14	16	0	+16	Up	+$2	04-12 05:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 08:35 UTC	2	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	04-07 08:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 22:15 UTC	3	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	04-13 22:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 06:50 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	04-14 06:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 08:45 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Up	+$3	04-14 08:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 04:00 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	04-14 04:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 10:20 UTC	2	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$2	04-14 10:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 21:25 UTC	2	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$2	04-14 21:29
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 3?	2	$12	7	7	+0	No	-$2	08-03 07:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 23:50 UTC	4	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$2	04-13 23:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 22:30 UTC	2	$12	8	7	+0	Up	+$3	04-13 22:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-30 20:37:47	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 30?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x6102a2…
09-30 19:55:24	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on September 30?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0xa67187…
09-30 19:32:17	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on September 30?	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x7f16c7…
09-21 09:44:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xafd6d5…
09-21 09:43:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:40 UTC	Up	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0x72a6c4…
09-21 09:42:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x6f7ca8…
08-03 07:43:12	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 3?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0xec2a68…
08-03 07:38:39	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 3?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xe73279…
08-03 07:11:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 3?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x8cc830…
08-03 06:42:18	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 3?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x374354…
08-02 16:13:44	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	9¢	$1	0xe1ecf7…
08-02 09:26:57	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 2?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x552693…
08-01 20:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 2?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe9439d…
07-19 21:20:09	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa2a201…
07-18 18:16:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x29f31f…
07-18 10:10:15	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x5e942b…
07-17 11:39:51	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 11:35 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x71b750…
07-15 19:36:55	itf noce mecarel 2026 07 15	Gabriele Maria Noce	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe6e5bd…
07-15 19:21:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x77eaba…
07-15 13:08:04	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x0173b5…
07-15 13:07:38	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xacb68c…
07-15 11:48:28	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x1b8eae…
07-15 11:47:59	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x927235…
07-11 09:43:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-11 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4f309a…
07-01 10:39:02	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x951c23…
06-30 09:06:16	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x583bee…
06-30 09:04:53	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x66ffcb…
06-21 06:10:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?	No	SELL	7	63¢	$4	0x0c1e38…
06-20 22:23:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?	No	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x91bfc5…
06-11 10:38:28	bitcoin up or down on june 11 2026	Down	SELL	9	29¢	$3	0x98ffd9…
06-11 08:37:58	bitcoin up or down on june 11 2026	Down	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x5e4fa3…
05-19 10:54:31	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x250ea7…
05-16 17:55:03	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x87f5bd…
05-15 04:58:11	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on May 15?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6c72f6…
05-14 11:09:38	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd90eb3…
05-14 11:09:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x3d64e7…
05-14 09:36:56	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x430922…
05-14 05:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xb6366a…
05-14 05:03:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xce976e…
05-13 11:31:33	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 13?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x01a1d8…
05-13 11:01:07	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x2eb27e…
05-13 08:10:56	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 13?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x80a197…
05-12 21:10:15	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x6d9271…
05-10 20:16:47	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x2d936b…
05-10 07:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xd883af…
05-06 12:32:50	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?	Yes	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0x1014da…
05-06 11:58:20	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x1026a2…
05-06 10:57:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x53d54e…
05-06 08:18:38	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd23a1c…
05-04 11:11:32	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	7	53¢	$4	0xc76f43…
05-04 11:10:46	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x7bf8ad…
05-04 11:03:22	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x093be0…
05-04 11:02:58	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xbd9dbb…
05-04 10:59:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xa43299…
05-04 10:55:14	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	47¢	$1	0x0e4486…
05-04 10:54:34	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xc47d2a…
05-04 10:54:14	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x83e998…
05-04 10:53:06	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x051872…
05-04 10:52:26	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	52¢	$6	0x3f0d1a…
05-04 10:51:14	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x076a78…
05-04 07:43:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x234963…
05-04 07:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3AM ET	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x869bd1…
05-04 07:27:32	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x1626a2…
05-04 07:24:42	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x6db431…
05-04 07:24:36	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	36¢	$1	0x719dae…
05-04 07:20:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x02f4a6…
05-04 07:15:48	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 2AM ET	Down	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb3cc7d…
05-04 07:01:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xb6e193…
05-04 07:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x1c9712…
05-04 07:00:38	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x95b1e8…
05-04 06:57:10	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x882b66…
05-04 06:54:12	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x5a9470…
05-04 06:46:48	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3beafd…
05-04 06:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xeb09fa…
05-04 06:44:42	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x461217…
05-04 06:44:42	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x01f93f…
05-04 06:41:08	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xf7e8dc…
05-04 06:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xfa92a0…
05-04 06:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xe421e3…
05-04 06:31:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xea7e49…
05-04 06:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xbcff1a…
05-03 11:36:32	XRP Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x3701a0…
05-03 11:32:58	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x09e5cb…
05-03 11:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xda4825…
05-03 11:32:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x07a0d4…
05-03 11:32:14	XRP Up or Down - May 3, 6AM ET	Down	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x241b22…
05-03 10:12:46	XRP Up or Down - May 3, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x52d3a5…
05-03 10:12:20	XRP Up or Down - May 3, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x872539…
05-03 10:06:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x82616d…
05-03 10:03:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5AM ET	Up	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4a4030…
05-03 09:06:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x73262d…
05-03 09:06:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xfe9e9e…
05-03 09:06:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	0	47¢	$0	0x735065…
05-03 09:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xde0f79…
05-03 09:03:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x956761…
05-03 09:03:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0xe7970e…
05-03 09:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$2	0xb2cf14…
05-03 09:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x27633f…
05-03 09:03:00	XRP Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x39f5b6…
05-03 09:01:38	Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x901852…