Bold-Maybe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

+$46

Hit rate

41.4%

Resolved

Trades

246

lifetime

Volume

$1.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$235

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 07-23 14:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

75% 50% +$4

Sports

10% 0% $-13

Crypto

8% — —

Politics

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No		+353	$184	64¢	$228	+$44	07-11 18:49
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+10	$6	78¢	$8	+$2	06-08 07:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kash Patel out by December 31?	25	$292	472	119	+353	open	—	07-11 18:49
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 0 39	11	$146	1,338	1,274	+64	open	—	04-20 06:42
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	18	$126	1,197	1,140	+57	open	—	04-21 23:43
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$92	150	150	+0	open	—	05-18 18:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	7	$91	155	149	+5	open	—	04-25 11:58
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5	4	$81	50	50	+0	open	—	05-25 16:10
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	3	$68	91	88	+2	open	—	04-24 10:23
Kash Patel out by May 31?	2	$65	74	0	+74	open	—	05-14 15:25
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	3	$44	55	0	+55	open	—	07-22 20:20
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$36	30	30	+0	open	—	05-25 12:40
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	5	$36	28	28	+0	open	—	04-21 23:47
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	5	$29	55	53	+2	open	—	04-27 09:39
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 160 179	3	$26	152	0	+152	open	—	04-22 06:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	4	$23	20	20	+0	open	—	07-15 21:40
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	4	$22	100	100	+0	open	—	04-25 20:24
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	4	$22	66	62	+3	open	—	04-24 14:49
fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 2pt5	1	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	06-12 17:59
will the us strike somalia next 656	1	$20	62	0	+62	open	—	01-19 18:47
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	2	$19	24	24	+1	open	—	04-22 06:20
epl ast sun 2026 04 19 total 2pt5	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	04-19 13:58
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5	2	$16	10	10	+0	Over	+$4	05-13 18:39
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	4	$16	45	44	+1	open	—	04-26 08:42
cs2 3dmax hero 2026 07 15 game2	1	$16	33	0	+33	open	—	07-15 13:59
wnba chi atl 2026 07 19 total 179pt5	4	$16	23	0	+23	open	—	07-19 22:13
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	1	$15	44	0	+44	open	—	05-30 10:57
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	1	$15	100	0	+100	open	—	06-14 21:23
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	2	$13	20	0	+20	open	—	06-16 16:26
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	4	$13	55	53	+2	open	—	04-27 09:38
fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread away 1pt5	1	$12	20	0	+20	open	—	06-16 15:16
will bitcoin dip to 62pt5k in july 2026 from july 14	1	$12	20	0	+20	open	—	07-23 07:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 14:09:40	cs2 sin2 fut 2026 07 23	Sinners	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xe7e1e2…
07-23 07:58:34	will bitcoin dip to 62pt5k in july 2026 from july 14	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x7ed698…
07-23 07:38:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x9e5dac…
07-22 20:20:28	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x5a3de5…
07-22 10:26:13	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xb18225…
07-22 04:27:45	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x1f110b…
07-19 22:13:46	wnba chi atl 2026 07 19 total 179pt5	Under	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x5fbd3a…
07-19 22:12:13	wnba chi atl 2026 07 19 total 179pt5	Under	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x32c172…
07-19 22:04:45	wnba chi atl 2026 07 19 total 179pt5	Under	BUY	12	72¢	$8	0x83b14c…
07-19 21:57:13	wnba chi atl 2026 07 19 total 179pt5	Under	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x7a6e11…
07-18 18:48:21	btc updown 5m 1784400300	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x19d2a6…
07-18 08:06:07	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts first half	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x116b9c…
07-18 08:05:28	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 first half total 1pt5	Under	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xdfc6d8…
07-15 21:40:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x2265d9…
07-15 19:44:05	will trump praise elon musk by july 31 20260626214328040	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbb8ca7…
07-15 19:10:25	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0xc46e9e…
07-15 18:46:47	btc updown 5m 1784141100	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xf88328…
07-15 16:30:04	btc updown 5m 1784133000	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x28625b…
07-15 16:30:04	btc updown 5m 1784133000	Down	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x0fd618…
07-15 16:24:22	btc updown 5m 1784132400	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x63fe7f…
07-15 16:17:25	btc updown 5m 1784132100	Down	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x3e9ff2…
07-15 15:52:46	btc updown 5m 1784130600	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xde785e…
07-15 13:59:25	cs2 3dmax hero 2026 07 15 game2	Heroic	BUY	33	48¢	$16	0xbbd89b…
07-12 08:41:05	iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	No	BUY	19	39¢	$7	0x72ac48…
07-11 18:49:41	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x718b21…
07-11 07:03:50	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x64327a…
07-11 06:59:14	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	46	50¢	$23	0x8c3a82…
07-11 06:59:10	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x82efd0…
07-09 20:40:04	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 corners team home 7pt5	Over	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xa333b8…
07-08 17:23:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa97e1f…
07-08 17:22:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x8a3fcd…
07-08 17:22:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x8ecb80…
07-07 09:13:44	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 corners team away 4pt5	Under	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x7daefb…
07-05 18:22:46	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x8ca689…
07-05 18:01:58	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 spread home 1pt5	Norway	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xd33e5d…
07-04 13:06:01	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 btts	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfe6b39…
07-03 14:28:47	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 btts	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x2aa1f8…
07-01 18:38:08	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x2bf665…
06-26 10:33:41	fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 btts	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xdc5d84…
06-24 20:21:14	fifwc che can 2026 06 24 corners total 7pt5	Over	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x027650…
06-22 17:15:34	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x9f11fc…
06-22 09:10:35	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xa4428f…
06-20 10:39:40	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 btts	Yes	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0xbcc5b1…
06-19 10:21:04	fifwc usa aus 2026 06 19 btts	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc863b5…
06-16 16:26:37	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	2	67¢	$2	0xf61dfd…
06-16 16:25:04	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	18	67¢	$12	0xa0e050…
06-16 15:16:17	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 spread away 1pt5	Norway	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xbee36f…
06-16 08:37:28	fifwc aut jor 2026 06 17 btts	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x403061…
06-16 06:25:49	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 btts	No	BUY	17	61¢	$10	0x7f013e…
06-15 14:18:39	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x5a13a7…
06-15 09:51:31	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x3ca059…
06-15 09:44:58	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x51c3c9…
06-15 07:16:52	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 first half team total home 0pt5	Under	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xb54e2b…
06-15 07:16:27	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x776bb2…
06-15 07:13:37	fifwc ksa ury 2026 06 15 btts	No	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xa57d0c…
06-15 07:07:57	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 btts	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x08acfc…
06-15 06:37:19	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 first half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xcd0cef…
06-14 21:23:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x721b9b…
06-14 20:57:48	fifwc civ ecu 2026 06 14 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0x25776f…
06-14 18:09:04	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 first half team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xd2a93f…
06-14 16:13:13	fifwc civ ecu 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Côte d'Ivoire	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x8c4a51…
06-14 16:13:12	fifwc civ ecu 2026 06 14 spread home 1pt5	Côte d'Ivoire	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x469b2c…
06-14 11:40:04	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xa7cef2…
06-14 11:05:03	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0x8d170e…
06-14 11:04:03	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x35af85…
06-14 10:34:30	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 btts	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x052ada…
06-14 10:26:31	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x6a51d7…
06-14 10:13:27	fifwc civ ecu 2026 06 14 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x5d8e0b…
06-14 10:04:16	fifwc swe tun 2026 06 14 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0xe9b691…
06-13 15:21:15	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x6589f7…
06-13 15:21:13	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xe153cb…
06-13 13:42:49	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xe53a21…
06-12 17:59:43	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 spread home 2pt5	Germany	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x28e71f…
06-12 02:46:39	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x4b1fff…
06-12 02:09:37	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	16	47¢	$8	0xdb6adb…
06-12 00:57:28	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xb97bd9…
06-11 22:18:40	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x841fc1…
06-11 22:17:28	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x3cd0b6…
06-11 16:31:39	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xc5fb28…
06-11 12:30:36	fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 btts	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x128501…
06-10 06:40:30	fifwc usa par 2026 06 12 btts	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x6a42ff…
06-10 05:54:16	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 btts	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x45ffbf…
06-10 05:54:15	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 btts	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x44ac5a…
06-08 07:32:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x169c45…
06-08 03:01:55	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x4ce77a…
06-07 21:16:13	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xbbde0a…
06-07 19:09:24	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x737682…
06-06 20:29:16	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	25	48¢	$12	0x493087…
06-06 03:21:00	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x7e3242…
06-05 14:06:31	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0xd23714…
06-04 15:21:57	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x8844d6…
06-04 14:39:45	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x855a03…
06-02 19:20:31	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0xe5b76e…
06-02 17:31:22	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xbbc615…
06-02 13:47:48	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0xa58922…
06-02 09:11:31	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x938c22…
06-02 08:49:07	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe17573…
05-30 10:57:04	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0xe69183…
05-29 12:55:49	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	40	42¢	$17	0xf6fb9c…
05-27 22:50:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x82ce33…