Bold-Maybe — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$49

Unrealized P&L

+$413

Hit rate

55.1%

Resolved (90d)

156

Trades (90d)

193

636 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.39K

$5.41K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$767

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 11-07 17:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 138 days

Categories

Other

77% 55% +$309

Sports

10% 44% -$7

Politics

7% 40% -$74

Crypto

5% 62% +$7

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	+859	$344	88¢	$760	+$417	07-11 18:49
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+50	$7	12¢	$6	-$1	10-13 19:37
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	+20	$4	4¢	$1	-$3	07-31 23:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kash Patel out by December 31?	38	$600	1,168	309	+859	open	—	07-11 18:49
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 0 39	11	$146	1,338	1,274	+64	No	+$15	04-20 06:42
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	18	$126	1,197	1,140	+57	No	+$1	04-21 23:43
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	3	$121	128	128	+0	No	+$17	05-16 14:41
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?	2	$113	100	100	+0	Yes	+$87	05-13 18:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$92	150	150	+0	Yes	+$5	05-18 18:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	7	$91	155	149	+5	No	-$2	04-25 11:58
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	2	$86	100	100	+0	open	—	10-24 14:23
bitcoin above 72k on august 20 2026	3	$84	85	85	+0	Yes	-$7	08-20 11:34
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5	4	$81	50	50	+0	Over 5.5	+$18	05-25 16:10
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	2	$75	55	55	+0	Yes	+$33	05-06 15:43
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	2	$70	50	50	+0	Yes	-$2	06-12 12:57
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	3	$68	91	88	+2	No	+$17	04-24 10:23
Kash Patel out by May 31?	2	$65	74	0	+74	No	+$9	05-14 15:25
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$61	200	200	+0	No	+$11	07-14 19:24
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	2	$58	68	68	+0	No	+$19	06-11 08:49
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	3	$57	186	186	+0	Yes	+$16	05-17 05:37
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	2	$56	50	50	+0	Yes	+$24	06-19 14:30
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	2	$55	50	50	+0	open	—	10-06 20:23
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$55	60	0	+60	Yes	+$5	07-19 21:42
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	1	$52	100	0	+100	Yes	-$52	05-26 19:41
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	3	$47	50	50	+0	Yes	+$20	05-26 13:39
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	9	$45	124	124	+0	No	-$2	05-14 20:26
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	3	$44	55	0	+55	No	+$11	07-22 20:20
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	2	$44	24	24	+0	Yes	+$3	05-16 16:00
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$43	50	50	+0	open	—	05-05 08:26
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$41	100	100	+0	No	+$9	07-14 19:24
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	2	$38	50	50	+0	No	+$12	05-14 22:05
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	11	$38	100	100	+0	No	+$10	05-15 07:59
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$38	100	100	+0	No	$0	07-14 19:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 17:39:25	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xdc2af9…
11-07 15:50:54	Cardiff City FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x1831b5…
11-07 13:39:00	Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x13949a…
11-07 09:50:45	Will SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x734220…
11-06 21:10:36	Sevilla FC vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x2b8c89…
11-05 21:15:00	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x790035…
11-05 18:26:51	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x74dd77…
11-05 13:13:19	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2b5968…
11-04 20:34:16	Cardiff City FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xcf47d1…
11-03 20:47:46	Birmingham City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x3b0182…
11-03 20:33:00	Derby County FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x4fbf6a…
11-02 18:48:24	Hapoel Ramat Gan Givatayim FC vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xada835…
11-01 20:57:18	Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xd968cc…
11-01 17:53:24	US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xed2aa6…
11-01 16:07:24	Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x0a8af5…
10-31 16:24:07	Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x0e3499…
10-31 16:24:04	Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x25add0…
10-31 15:52:06	Swansea City AFC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xd34684…
10-31 15:52:06	Millwall FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xa5aa6d…
10-28 20:34:47	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x00e5f7…
10-28 20:10:19	Holstein Kiel vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x1df72a…
10-28 20:10:14	Holstein Kiel vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xb4f765…
10-28 20:10:05	Holstein Kiel vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x99ed25…
10-28 20:10:02	Holstein Kiel vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x5538ba…
10-28 18:42:16	Venezia FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xe9df9e…
10-28 18:18:40	SC Paderborn 07 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x549754…
10-28 18:18:40	SC Paderborn 07 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	0	83¢	$0	0x097408…
10-28 17:50:44	SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x899bd7…
10-28 17:25:13	SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x7d876e…
10-27 17:49:57	SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x1f63b9…
10-25 18:18:27	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x3d7688…
10-25 12:42:08	FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x3496fd…
10-25 12:42:06	FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x1d38ac…
10-24 17:35:44	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x520346…
10-24 16:18:06	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xcd09cb…
10-24 14:24:00	Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0xc0cd1a…
10-24 14:23:53	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x141ee5…
10-24 12:10:57	Hertha BSC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x28b2ef…
10-24 12:10:30	Hertha BSC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xb51d01…
10-24 12:07:00	Hertha BSC vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x3035e8…
10-24 11:47:47	Will SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x1872a7…
10-24 11:47:33	Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xd87a4b…
10-23 17:21:24	SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0x06c74b…
10-21 20:13:29	FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x2e7c5d…
10-21 19:37:35	Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x4d04ac…
10-20 17:15:06	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xc3e924…
10-18 13:48:23	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xdfa9c7…
10-17 17:51:41	Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	16	14¢	$2	0x6cba8d…
10-17 17:25:54	Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x4a063a…
10-17 14:54:11	West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x4fedaf…
10-17 14:50:50	Wrexham AFC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xd63a39…
10-17 14:50:44	Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xd6ad02…
10-17 14:49:32	Hamburger SV vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x06a8e0…
10-17 14:16:48	Dover Athletic FC vs. Dorking Wanderers FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xb6ebad…
10-17 13:39:12	SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Augsburg: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xa1a20e…
10-17 13:12:50	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x687d72…
10-17 12:34:50	VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xefaa71…
10-17 11:48:17	VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xdf8381…
10-17 11:25:54	VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0xbd4353…
10-17 11:25:54	VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0x985639…
10-17 07:32:56	Will AC Monza vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x1188b9…
10-16 17:45:41	Holstein Kiel vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x8cdeb1…
10-16 17:40:30	Holstein Kiel vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x070f38…
10-15 19:49:29	Atalanta BC vs. Páfos FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x364497…
10-15 19:24:58	Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Celtic FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x93c1d8…
10-15 19:21:20	Atalanta BC vs. Páfos FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xf400a5…
10-15 17:36:46	KKS Lech Poznań vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xbb434e…
10-14 19:40:15	elc qpr der 2026 10 14 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x7465ce…
10-14 19:09:55	elc qpr der 2026 10 14 first half total 2pt5	Over	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xbd46fb…
10-14 17:32:27	ucl lin2 liv 2026 10 14 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x717b82…
10-13 19:51:51	Birmingham City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x0a3fce…
10-13 19:48:24	Villarreal CF vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xe46834…
10-13 19:45:10	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-10-13?	No	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xb57b9a…
10-13 19:37:16	Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x27da84…
10-12 18:18:53	Hapoel Jerusalem FC vs. Maccabi Haifa FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xe802f9…
10-11 19:38:30	ES Troyes AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc6b53d…
10-11 19:37:28	ES Troyes AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb3685e…
10-11 13:52:43	Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x077fcd…
10-11 12:05:19	Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xa8facb…
10-10 21:19:28	Will Como 1907 vs. AS Roma end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x584ca8…
10-10 19:10:12	Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x44a73b…
10-10 17:38:48	Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xdeb61b…
10-10 14:49:36	Watford FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xde08c4…
10-09 16:42:41	Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Holstein Kiel: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x4a5d12…
10-06 20:23:12	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xa92bc3…
10-06 19:49:38	Estonia vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xf42a20…
10-03 19:37:13	Switzerland vs. Slovenia: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x32eed0…
10-01 19:34:14	Israel vs. Kosovo: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xdaf369…
09-29 19:55:17	Bulgaria vs. Estonia: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xe4e741…
09-29 19:39:24	Slovenia vs. North Macedonia: O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xfc6018…
09-28 19:54:36	Türkiye vs. Italy: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xf32f1c…
09-28 19:40:15	Türkiye vs. Italy: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	6	76¢	$4	0x1ae8f5…
09-28 19:38:17	Northern Ireland vs. Hungary: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x57ee9d…
09-28 17:21:56	Armenia vs. Montenegro: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x81045d…
09-28 16:51:41	Armenia vs. Montenegro: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x567f47…
09-27 19:38:44	Israel vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xecb864…
09-24 19:39:23	Norway vs. Denmark: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x487f57…
09-22 09:56:34	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x15a7f5…
09-20 12:33:31	DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x121c0d…
09-20 12:33:03	Will ACF Fiorentina vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xc0cfaa…