Vivid-Checking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved

973

Trades

2,547

lifetime

Volume

$2.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$32

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-21

last 09-19 12:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 70% +$10

Other

30% 59% -$24

Politics

6% 62% +$2

Sports

1% 33% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-24	-$22	98¢	$-24	-$2	07-04 23:25
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+12	$9	40¢	$5	-$4	09-06 10:01
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-3	-$3	98¢	$-3	$0	06-24 10:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	37	$103	52	52	+0	No	+$1	03-27 13:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 09:00 UTC	61	$69	137	0	+137	Up	+$13	03-07 09:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 09:30 UTC	53	$53	106	0	+106	Up	-$9	03-07 09:35
will russia enter dobropillia by december 31	161	$46	50	50	+0	Yes	-$4	06-28 05:57
netanyahu out by march 31 854	25	$46	23	23	+0	No	+$0	04-04 21:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	33	$34	79	79	+0	No	+$2	06-01 14:51
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 09:30 UTC	33	$33	66	0	+66	Up	+$3	03-07 09:35
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	40	$33	27	27	+0	No	+$1	06-27 20:12
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 09:00 UTC	29	$31	57	0	+57	Up	-$4	03-07 09:04
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 09:30 UTC	27	$27	55	0	+55	Down	+$1	03-07 09:34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	23	$26	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	08-19 06:34
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	10	$26	2	26	-24	open	—	07-04 23:25
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20 game1	25	$25	37	0	+37	G2 Esports	-$3	03-20 13:39
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	13	$22	20	20	+0	open	—	07-17 10:12
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	11	$22	33	33	+0	Yes	+$2	07-05 08:42
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 09:30 UTC	21	$21	40	0	+40	Up	-$9	03-07 09:35
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 09:00 UTC	21	$21	63	0	+63	Down	-$9	03-07 09:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	42	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	04-07 20:59
aus new mac 2026 02 22 total 1pt5	16	$16	39	0	+39	Under	+$9	02-22 08:46
will ukraine re enter novomykolaivka by march 31	20	$15	9	9	+0	Yes	+$1	03-06 16:22
dota2 aur1 tundra 2026 03 26 game2	15	$15	16	0	+16	Aurora	-$15	03-26 18:24
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	13	$15	13	5	+8	Yes	+$1	05-29 21:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	18	$14	8	8	+0	Yes	+$0	06-15 07:22
arg rie cah 2026 02 21 total 2pt5	13	$13	16	0	+16	Under	+$3	02-21 22:16
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	6	$13	20	20	+0	Yes	+$11	03-06 14:50
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	35	$13	15	15	+0	No	+$1	07-12 22:39
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20 game2	13	$12	15	2	+13	G2 Esports	-$8	03-20 14:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	11	$11	14	1	+12	open	—	09-06 10:01
val kru lookin 2026 03 18	11	$11	12	0	+12	KRÜ Blaze	+$1	03-21 13:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 10:00 UTC	6	$11	12	11	+0	Up	+$1	03-07 10:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-19 12:26:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x19d4d5…
09-18 15:32:54	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3ea3ba…
09-06 10:01:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x97c501…
09-04 14:51:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xaac272…
09-02 17:00:24	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x30ecad…
09-02 06:15:21	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x65a2c0…
08-27 16:16:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x22981f…
08-26 19:29:03	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0xcff134…
08-26 18:22:15	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x72d5e7…
08-26 17:12:24	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x3a5225…
08-26 17:12:24	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x25d420…
08-26 17:12:22	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x5bb5a5…
08-26 15:12:51	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x7561f2…
08-26 13:49:52	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xf6cfef…
08-26 13:44:07	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x7e649d…
08-26 13:32:22	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xc33bae…
08-26 12:41:57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xf3c3f2…
08-26 12:40:30	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xffa27c…
08-26 11:24:46	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x68f535…
08-26 09:41:42	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x37a0e3…
08-25 20:11:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xef686b…
08-25 07:54:58	Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd5ffeb…
08-25 07:37:19	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x06f9b7…
08-23 15:55:19	will russia enter mykolaivka by september 30 2026 20260805154948090	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x73566f…
08-23 09:04:33	will russia enter mykolaivka by september 30 2026 20260805154948090	No	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0x21983f…
08-23 06:34:51	will russia enter mykolaivka by september 30 2026 20260805154948090	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x6f8eae…
08-23 05:51:01	will russia enter mykolaivka by september 30 2026 20260805154948090	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc620e8…
08-19 19:30:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8384e5…
08-19 19:30:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe32b05…
08-19 19:30:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x2db128…
08-19 19:30:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9365e6…
08-19 19:30:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x4c7193…
08-19 19:30:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xa7db8d…
08-19 19:30:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9b075e…
08-19 19:30:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x79c5e0…
08-19 19:30:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x40001a…
08-19 19:30:45	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x89b949…
08-19 19:30:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe22ef0…
08-19 19:30:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb1ed16…
08-19 19:30:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xac636d…
08-19 19:30:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x385cf4…
08-19 19:30:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb1e5b3…
08-19 19:30:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9e03bb…
08-19 19:30:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc4c0e5…
08-19 19:30:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x8bef23…
08-19 19:30:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd02623…
08-19 19:30:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x92c02b…
08-19 19:30:37	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xaa5e92…
08-19 19:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xba10d8…
08-19 19:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5e0ccf…
08-19 19:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x40bce7…
08-19 19:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x389b0d…
08-19 19:30:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x80abd1…
08-19 19:30:33	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe8b2fe…
08-19 19:30:33	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xab8f68…
08-19 19:30:33	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xaa62ad…
08-19 19:30:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc07eeb…
08-19 19:30:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7b7f93…
08-19 19:30:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xe0b7a9…
08-19 19:30:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x34cec4…
08-19 19:30:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0d619a…
08-19 19:30:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xdf8e84…
08-19 19:30:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd54d09…
08-19 19:30:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x19f31a…
08-19 19:30:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xcbce28…
08-19 19:30:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0df18d…
08-19 19:30:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x93e088…
08-19 19:30:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x505845…
08-19 19:30:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x025649…
08-19 19:30:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x2830b1…
08-19 19:30:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x21c1e5…
08-19 19:30:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x57e5ed…
08-19 19:30:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3eb051…
08-19 19:30:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbfa1ca…
08-19 19:30:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x9f0db0…
08-19 06:34:57	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1d221c…
08-19 06:34:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xaa9c7f…
08-19 04:01:18	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x80577f…
08-18 18:28:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4f0ff9…
08-18 18:05:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc3cc11…
08-18 18:05:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x7e5e72…
08-14 11:15:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xd9ce3e…
08-14 10:22:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5cb364…
08-14 10:22:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe8ad77…
08-14 08:21:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x475800…
08-14 07:36:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x3c93e9…
08-14 07:36:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xc0109b…
08-12 09:47:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x45190b…
08-04 15:46:06	will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x20af97…
08-04 14:48:21	will russia enter orikhiv by september 30	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x8b64e2…
07-31 09:49:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x4b75e9…
07-31 09:05:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xee8ddb…
07-31 07:15:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x75accc…
07-31 05:17:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x61f8e1…
07-31 04:32:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xd7056a…
07-31 04:01:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xb64a54…
07-31 02:42:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x015095…
07-31 01:07:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x709d2d…
07-31 01:06:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xc810ea…
07-30 07:53:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8d3899…