Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

35.0%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

232 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$18

$317 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-07-21

last 11-07 09:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

86% 59% +$23

Politics

11% 55% -$6

Tech

2% 60% +$9

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	+1	$1	93¢	$1	+$0	11-06 11:33
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	+1	$1	68¢	$1	$0	11-03 16:59
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	36¢	$1	$0	11-06 19:57
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	+4	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-29 12:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	2	$3	10	+10	No	-$1	08-23 12:11
yum quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 1pt56	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-25 01:51
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	10-06 03:46
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	2	$2	4	+4	No	$0	10-14 07:14
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-03 08:44
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	2	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$0	10-12 22:56
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	2	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$3	09-30 19:53
Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	2	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$1	10-30 04:25
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-05 16:55
will trump say hell 8 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421447	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-05 00:53
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-06 08:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	07-23 13:46
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	08-01 13:53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	07-27 01:55
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-02 16:23
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-05 08:54
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	+$4	08-03 00:24
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-02 06:33
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	08-04 00:48
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	08-03 16:46
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-04 16:53
will trump say beautiful 15 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421448	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-04 08:48
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$2	10-03 08:27
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-06 00:56
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	07-22 13:45
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-24 13:49
ben quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 31 2026 0pt66	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-25 13:54
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-01 05:01
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	$0	07-27 16:25
another pandemic before gta vi	1	$2	4	+4	cancelled	$0	07-29 13:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 09:38:16	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xe39b8a…
11-06 19:57:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe02876…
11-06 11:33:48	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xbfae30…
11-06 02:57:24	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xebed8c…
11-05 18:49:46	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x225b11…
11-05 10:49:15	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd86783…
11-05 02:47:36	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9d777e…
11-04 18:34:04	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x800b76…
11-04 09:01:03	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5adc5f…
11-04 01:00:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x028801…
11-03 16:59:52	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x069ac4…
11-03 08:50:25	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xcec01d…
11-03 00:48:37	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x232cf7…
11-02 16:48:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8662cf…
11-02 08:47:52	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xf3f9a5…
11-02 00:47:09	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xbc0172…
11-01 11:23:15	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4dfc5e…
11-01 00:44:48	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x9322d8…
10-30 22:27:00	CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 92% to 93.5%?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe7114d…
10-30 21:23:55	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5c26e2…
10-30 12:37:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcd4da9…
10-30 04:25:54	Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x1b8ee3…
10-30 04:23:04	Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xeeca73…
10-29 20:09:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x03dfa0…
10-29 12:00:37	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x7f5c4f…
10-29 03:23:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x524a70…
10-28 15:26:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb3f280…
10-28 07:25:19	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x44678d…
10-27 23:25:00	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x7ba00a…
10-27 14:11:21	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x7e3c29…
10-27 06:10:54	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb79677…
10-25 10:07:21	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x8627ed…
10-25 02:05:38	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x6fa589…
10-24 13:47:32	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf73b49…
10-24 05:23:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x14e560…
10-23 19:11:29	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x9b43f2…
10-23 11:10:38	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xea8143…
10-23 11:10:35	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcb592c…
10-22 00:49:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x17db08…
10-21 16:05:02	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x7fa510…
10-21 07:46:26	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x781058…
10-20 23:41:45	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc23e60…
10-20 15:30:11	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xba531f…
10-20 15:30:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb7fc2d…
10-20 07:29:25	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xaadb93…
10-19 23:29:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcbb973…
10-19 15:29:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x14414f…
10-19 06:57:02	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $540 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xec0d64…
10-18 22:56:53	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x9d5004…
10-18 14:55:30	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc9776a…
10-18 06:54:33	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6a7e7a…
10-17 20:04:27	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x97a381…
10-17 12:01:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xfc9b23…
10-17 03:47:26	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x23c5ac…
10-16 18:08:15	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x2baab2…
10-16 08:45:30	will rklb reach 58 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xa0b4a0…
10-16 00:44:27	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa5aa11…
10-15 16:43:04	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x11426a…
10-15 08:42:59	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xf41709…
10-15 00:04:25	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xea38dc…
10-14 15:15:43	next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5b2150…
10-14 07:14:31	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xbad45f…
10-14 07:09:37	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x619f84…
10-13 23:04:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc99cb5…
10-13 15:00:25	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x5fe696…
10-13 06:56:55	spx up or down on october 13 2026	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe18b18…
10-12 22:56:48	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x487461…
10-12 14:56:27	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0acbd5…
10-12 06:50:28	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x92b210…
10-11 22:50:14	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf88a24…
10-11 14:46:46	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9e1d62…
10-11 06:46:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7a428b…
10-10 21:24:36	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x678c80…
10-10 21:18:16	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x2ac2fa…
10-10 13:13:24	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xe2fb58…
10-10 04:32:43	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xa0b5d7…
10-09 20:10:52	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x244ae0…
10-09 12:02:03	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8c56e1…
10-09 03:59:55	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa27b5e…
10-08 19:59:41	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x17185a…
10-08 11:57:06	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3e7517…
10-08 03:56:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 8?	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x7c3ddf…
10-07 19:49:32	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb41ff7…
10-07 11:48:44	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7?	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xa0d1dd…
10-07 03:47:59	Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x105fa9…
10-06 19:47:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x023781…
10-06 11:47:01	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x236d2a…
10-06 03:46:49	Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xdb4fe0…
10-06 02:39:25	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $197 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x421698…
10-06 02:31:00	Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x322c92…
10-05 17:51:14	will pltr reach 192 by october 5 2026 from october 5	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xda8c86…
10-05 09:40:16	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd57f88…
10-05 00:35:46	will coin dip to 177 50 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x96f163…
10-04 11:13:50	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x279fd3…
10-03 20:01:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x80fa11…
10-03 08:27:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4ba0da…
10-03 07:02:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb7a124…
10-02 21:41:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xaf5f58…
10-02 13:38:02	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x32e875…
10-02 05:36:44	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf26d9e…