Will any xAI Grok model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
open
Total volume
$225
Trades
30
Unique wallets
16
Liquidity
$329
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-02-28
First seen
2026-06-19
last 07-01 13:02
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-3.6¢
(top1%: 5% YES on $200
vs crowd: 8% YES on $220)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $12 | $192 | $179 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 9 | $2 | $10 | $8 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $9 | $191 | $182 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $4 | $1 | +$3 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| Median | 2 | — | $8 | $8 |
| Below median | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| unranked | 6 | $2 | $3 | $0 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | +207 | $191 | $191 | 2 | 06-24 10:06 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk 0x9507…7b04 | Yes | +100 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 06-19 15:17 |
| Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | +51 | $2 | $2 | 3 | 07-01 09:09 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +24 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-19 15:17 |
| Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | +15 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-19 15:17 |
| Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | Yes | +15 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-30 17:36 |
| Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | Yes | +12 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-24 10:06 |
| Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | +8 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 07-01 13:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xd2ff…f245 | Yes | +4 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 06-29 08:09 |
| Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 6 | 07-01 13:02 |
| Scary-Rubbish-Contour 0xdb0f…6906 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-19 15:17 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-19 15:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x22a2…7114 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:09 |
| Lawful-Contagion 0x1c57…4f19 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:09 |
| Intentional-Prosecution 0xfa5d…e86d | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:08 |
| Wiggly-Grassland 0x23d7…2b2b | No | +1 | $1 | $12 | 2 | 07-01 09:09 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 13:02:13 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xda21ef… |
| 07-01 13:02:13 | Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xda21ef… |
| 07-01 10:06:26 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x54959a… |
| 07-01 10:06:26 | Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x54959a… |
| 07-01 09:09:17 | Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x036209… |
| 07-01 09:09:17 | Wiggly-Grassland 0x23d7…2b2b | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x036209… |
| 07-01 09:09:17 | Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x036209… |
| 07-01 09:05:10 | Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd6c5a7… |
| 07-01 09:05:10 | Wiggly-Grassland 0x23d7…2b2b | No | BUY | 7 | 100¢ | $6 | 0xd6c5a7… |
| 06-30 17:36:43 | Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xde6deb… |
| 06-30 17:36:43 | Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xde6deb… |
| 06-30 17:36:43 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xde6deb… |
| 06-30 17:14:58 | Annual-Beach 0x9797…2532 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x25361d… |
| 06-30 17:14:58 | (anonymous) 0x87e7…d0b5 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x25361d… |
| 06-29 08:09:29 | (anonymous) 0xd2ff…f245 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0bd068… |
| 06-29 08:09:29 | Lawful-Contagion 0x1c57…4f19 | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x0bd068… |
| 06-29 08:09:16 | (anonymous) 0x22a2…7114 | No | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x5a3592… |
| 06-29 08:09:16 | (anonymous) 0xd2ff…f245 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x5a3592… |
| 06-29 08:08:58 | Intentional-Prosecution 0xfa5d…e86d | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xcae87a… |
| 06-29 08:08:58 | (anonymous) 0xd2ff…f245 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xcae87a… |
| 06-24 10:06:31 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | BUY | 60 | 97¢ | $58 | 0x5ef21c… |
| 06-24 10:06:31 | Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | BUY | 48 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x5ef21c… |
| 06-24 10:06:31 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | Yes | BUY | 12 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x5ef21c… |
| 06-19 15:17:59 | Scary-Rubbish-Contour 0xdb0f…6906 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0x206feb… |
| 06-19 15:17:59 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 2 | 38¢ | $1 | 0x206feb… |
| 06-19 15:17:56 | Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xc2a79e… |
| 06-19 15:17:56 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | BUY | 147 | 90¢ | $132 | 0xc2a79e… |
| 06-19 15:17:56 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xc2a79e… |
| 06-19 15:17:56 | Compassionate-Kneejerk 0x9507…7b04 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 9¢ | $9 | 0xc2a79e… |
| 06-19 15:17:56 | Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | BUY | 8 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xc2a79e… |