Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 in 2026?
open
Total volume
$369
Trades
32
Unique wallets
14
Liquidity
$317
Latest YES mid
12¢
Latest NO mid
88¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-06-21
last 08-09 18:06
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $5 | $42 | $37 |
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8 | $8 | $172 | $163 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| Median | 3 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| Below median | 1 | — | $5 | $5 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | $37 | $37 |
| unranked | 7 | $8 | $172 | $163 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selfish-Shampoo 0x45a3…12f0 | No | +46 | $37 | $37 | 2 | 07-13 03:34 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +21 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 08-09 18:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | +19 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-09 18:06 |
| United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-08 14:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-09 18:06 |
| Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | No | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-21 05:58 |
| Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | +1 | $-1 | $3 | 4 | 07-25 22:37 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 18:06:01 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x60535a… |
| 08-09 18:06:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x60535a… |
| 08-09 18:06:01 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x60535a… |
| 08-09 18:06:01 | (anonymous) 0xde30…3159 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 11¢ | $4 | 0x60535a… |
| 08-08 14:06:09 | (anonymous) 0xde30…3159 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x0128d3… |
| 08-08 14:06:09 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x0128d3… |
| 08-08 14:06:09 | Flimsy-Lute 0x5849…a99e | Yes | SELL | 28 | 16¢ | $4 | 0x0128d3… |
| 08-07 00:01:54 | Flimsy-Lute 0x5849…a99e | Yes | SELL | 12 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xf46eb7… |
| 08-07 00:01:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xf46eb7… |
| 07-25 22:37:12 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x15e33a… |
| 07-25 22:37:12 | Speedy-Innervation 0xff30…4a37 | No | SELL | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x15e33a… |
| 07-16 21:03:37 | Conscious-Sticker 0xe483…c63d | No | SELL | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x8c08a1… |
| 07-16 21:03:37 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x8c08a1… |
| 07-13 03:34:56 | Selfish-Shampoo 0x45a3…12f0 | No | BUY | 40 | 80¢ | $32 | 0x4af95d… |
| 07-13 03:34:56 | (anonymous) 0x6f8c…a5c2 | No | SELL | 80 | 84¢ | $67 | 0x4af95d… |
| 07-13 03:34:56 | Flimsy-Lute 0x5849…a99e | Yes | SELL | 40 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x4af95d… |
| 07-06 01:41:01 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x5c8f7d… |
| 07-06 01:41:01 | (anonymous) 0x6f8c…a5c2 | No | BUY | 30 | 93¢ | $28 | 0x5c8f7d… |
| 07-06 01:41:01 | (anonymous) 0xdc76…e7b2 | No | SELL | 96 | 94¢ | $90 | 0x5c8f7d… |
| 07-06 01:33:22 | (anonymous) 0xdc76…e7b2 | No | BUY | 56 | 95¢ | $54 | 0xe0ad83… |
| 07-06 01:33:22 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xe0ad83… |
| 07-06 01:33:22 | Flimsy-Lute 0x5849…a99e | Yes | BUY | 50 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xe0ad83… |
| 07-06 01:33:16 | (anonymous) 0xdc76…e7b2 | No | BUY | 30 | 93¢ | $28 | 0x224780… |
| 07-06 01:33:16 | Flimsy-Lute 0x5849…a99e | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x224780… |
| 07-06 01:33:08 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x89b528… |
| 07-06 01:33:08 | (anonymous) 0xdc76…e7b2 | No | BUY | 10 | 92¢ | $9 | 0x89b528… |
| 07-01 12:31:10 | Selfish-Shampoo 0x45a3…12f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xcf414b… |
| 07-01 12:31:10 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xcf414b… |
| 06-21 05:58:43 | Tricky-Bubble 0xab60…4f5d | No | SELL | 5 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x6519aa… |
| 06-21 05:58:43 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | No | BUY | 5 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x6519aa… |
| 06-21 03:10:22 | Tricky-Bubble 0xab60…4f5d | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x74b43f… |
| 06-21 03:10:22 | Honest-Basil 0x765c…dbb6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x74b43f… |