Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?
open
Total volume
$178
$1,500 in 24h
Trades
32
Unique wallets
30
Liquidity
$1,749
Latest YES mid
9¢
Latest NO mid
91¢
End date
2026-05-10
First seen
2026-05-08
last 05-09 23:41
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | — | $37 | $37 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 28 | $16 | $116 | $100 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $5 | $37 | $32 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $51 | $51 |
| Median | 6 | — | $5 | $5 |
| Below median | 8 | $3 | $49 | $46 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $2 | $1 | +$1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $0 | $8 | $7 |
| unranked | 5 | $5 | $1 | +$4 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edible-Frosting 0xa98f…d282 | No | +55 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 05-09 19:02 |
| Separate-Consideration 0x84b1…66a4 | No | +54 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 05-09 09:19 |
| Reflecting-Ancestor 0xc9d9…07e7 | Yes | +44 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-09 08:10 |
| Jubilant-Phrase 0xec86…60e4 | No | +31 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 05-09 01:30 |
| Mindless-Diffuse 0x003a…c3c6 | Yes | +28 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-09 18:52 |
| Fatal-Outrage 0x524c…d364 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 09:50 |
| Aching-Misnomer 0x94c4…b202 | Yes | +16 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-09 23:41 |
| Expert-Manager-Mankind 0x9578…650a | Yes | +11 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 05-09 17:59 |
| Fixed-Sleep 0xf9dc…1108 | Yes | +11 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 05-09 17:59 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-09 22:00 |
| Insubstantial-Toga 0x2656…a5b8 | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 04:49 |
| Wilted-Conclusion 0xce49…8029 | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 18:07 |
| Happy-Precedence 0x4a91…983f | No | +8 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-09 09:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x84c2…c908 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-08 10:00 |
| Magnificent-Autoimmunity 0xe5cf…9c8c | Yes | +4 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-09 17:49 |
| Positive-Horseradish 0x60d8…f2a6 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-09 04:49 |
| Dirty-Exaggeration 0x8e86…f73b | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 23:16 |
| Slippery-Cable 0x01f2…c3de | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-08 09:54 |
| Quarterly-Study 0x4d36…674a | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 07:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x46f7…5b54 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 01:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x66c6…ffa9 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 01:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xca30…7eb2 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 01:30 |
| Thorough-Gossip 0x66ca…3637 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 13:18 |
| Damp-Ligula 0x26d2…ed55 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-09 13:58 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 23:41:21 | Aching-Misnomer 0x94c4…b202 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x906b5b… |
| 05-09 23:16:10 | Dirty-Exaggeration 0x8e86…f73b | No | BUY | 2 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x171844… |
| 05-09 22:00:08 | Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x65dbbe… |
| 05-09 19:38:06 | (anonymous) 0x2d58…8a92 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x946076… |
| 05-09 19:02:04 | Edible-Frosting 0xa98f…d282 | No | BUY | 55 | 93¢ | $51 | 0xdd92c7… |
| 05-09 18:56:56 | (anonymous) 0xccf7…7616 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x654d22… |
| 05-09 18:55:22 | Thorny-Allocation 0x2d0a…c825 | Yes | SELL | 79 | 8¢ | $6 | 0x541961… |
| 05-09 18:52:04 | Mindless-Diffuse 0x003a…c3c6 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 11¢ | $3 | 0xc2fa5c… |
| 05-09 18:31:51 | Average-Zampone 0x2a25…8055 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x047910… |
| 05-09 18:07:35 | Wilted-Conclusion 0xce49…8029 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x511c97… |
| 05-09 17:59:32 | Fixed-Sleep 0xf9dc…1108 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x346ef5… |
| 05-09 17:59:31 | Expert-Manager-Mankind 0x9578…650a | Yes | SELL | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xb569cd… |
| 05-09 17:49:36 | Expert-Manager-Mankind 0x9578…650a | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xb1970d… |
| 05-09 17:49:36 | Fixed-Sleep 0xf9dc…1108 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xf4b7d1… |
| 05-09 17:49:27 | Magnificent-Autoimmunity 0xe5cf…9c8c | Yes | BUY | 4 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x1345fc… |
| 05-09 13:58:15 | Damp-Ligula 0x26d2…ed55 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x7e7a44… |
| 05-09 13:18:31 | Thorough-Gossip 0x66ca…3637 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xd47b39… |
| 05-09 09:50:06 | Fatal-Outrage 0x524c…d364 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x10cc3d… |
| 05-09 09:44:49 | Happy-Precedence 0x4a91…983f | No | BUY | 8 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x050603… |
| 05-09 09:19:39 | Separate-Consideration 0x84b1…66a4 | No | BUY | 54 | 90¢ | $48 | 0x8d2a0f… |
| 05-09 08:10:03 | Reflecting-Ancestor 0xc9d9…07e7 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 12¢ | $5 | 0xb5bd7c… |
| 05-09 07:24:24 | Quarterly-Study 0x4d36…674a | No | BUY | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0x30ef99… |
| 05-09 04:49:51 | Positive-Horseradish 0x60d8…f2a6 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 13¢ | $0 | 0x3f756b… |
| 05-09 04:49:46 | Insubstantial-Toga 0x2656…a5b8 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xeb595c… |
| 05-09 01:30:26 | Jubilant-Phrase 0xec86…60e4 | No | BUY | 31 | 89¢ | $28 | 0x5d44bb… |
| 05-09 01:30:21 | (anonymous) 0xca30…7eb2 | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x6c837f… |
| 05-09 01:30:19 | (anonymous) 0x66c6…ffa9 | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x64d52d… |
| 05-09 01:30:12 | (anonymous) 0x46f7…5b54 | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x1ddd89… |
| 05-08 15:37:26 | Fond-Warmth 0xef98…b586 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x0ad656… |
| 05-08 10:00:25 | (anonymous) 0x84c2…c908 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xbf8db1… |
| 05-08 09:54:59 | Slippery-Cable 0x01f2…c3de | No | BUY | 1 | 88¢ | $1 | 0xac8160… |
| 05-08 09:45:52 | Fine-Antecedent 0x23d1…353f | Yes | SELL | 3 | 12¢ | $0 | 0x5e6c5b… |