Immense-Stencil — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,799

lifetime

Volume

$24.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 08-07 02:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Tech

38% — —

Politics

36% 67% +$1

Other

16% 40% +$1

Crypto

10% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	80	$2.3K	3,061	3,061	+0	open	—	06-25 23:47
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	70	$2.2K	2,086	2,086	+0	open	—	06-27 03:53
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	32	$1.3K	1,339	861	+479	open	—	06-02 00:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	27	$893	623	581	+42	open	—	05-30 16:23
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	18	$771	615	483	+131	open	—	06-14 13:21
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	22	$656	744	813	-69	open	—	05-22 23:31
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	12	$641	346	346	+0	open	—	06-23 02:14
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	67	$592	3,500	3,500	+0	open	—	07-01 00:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	13	$580	322	322	+0	open	—	05-22 09:20
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	34	$568	3,325	1,190	+2,135	open	—	05-23 00:46
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	30	$478	7,599	0	+7,599	open	—	06-01 12:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$424	240	264	-24	open	—	05-30 06:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	6	$408	214	214	+0	open	—	05-13 02:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	12	$378	216	283	-67	open	—	05-18 12:51
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	24	$375	3,758	0	+3,758	open	—	06-01 12:06
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	11	$347	199	199	+0	open	—	05-24 14:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$338	232	232	+0	open	—	04-21 06:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	17	$324	193	193	+0	open	—	05-13 02:47
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	16	$314	1,300	1,100	+200	open	—	06-30 22:35
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	4	$311	223	223	+0	open	—	06-27 17:37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	21	$299	266	542	-276	open	—	06-14 10:53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	13	$295	339	0	+339	open	—	04-27 15:13
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	8	$279	240	240	+0	open	—	06-17 11:27
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	38	$274	6,340	2,040	+4,300	open	—	06-18 00:02
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	13	$262	144	167	-23	open	—	06-01 01:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	5	$252	143	143	+0	open	—	05-26 15:50
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843 464	25	$242	1,100	747	+353	open	—	06-23 08:21
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	29	$224	1,000	701	+299	open	—	06-20 06:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$206	115	115	+0	open	—	04-30 07:04
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	11	$205	109	131	-22	open	—	05-31 21:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 02:43:03	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xd7d10c…
08-07 01:55:42	Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0xdb10ce…
08-07 01:55:40	Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xe46a59…
08-06 19:15:45	Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x57164f…
08-06 11:39:12	Blue wave in 2026?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xccaf8b…
08-01 12:16:38	Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xfc5b8d…
07-24 08:01:49	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	40	89¢	$36	0x6a6cdc…
07-23 13:36:22	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	Yes	SELL	60	73¢	$44	0xff9be9…
07-21 23:18:39	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xc7f010…
07-21 02:07:18	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x1b61ee…
07-17 11:26:49	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xc43588…
07-17 02:51:01	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xc1fb10…
07-16 10:06:49	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	52	89¢	$47	0x4d9657…
07-15 09:07:50	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xe6d993…
07-15 07:56:37	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xfc51a8…
07-15 03:38:22	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	17	76¢	$13	0xe1d0cb…
07-12 07:51:52	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	16	75¢	$12	0xb648bf…
07-12 05:59:31	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	37	37¢	$14	0x3f4e49…
07-12 05:09:10	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xfc200b…
07-12 05:09:10	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x29561b…
07-12 00:35:46	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xcd245d…
07-11 10:26:47	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x40f7cc…
07-11 08:11:55	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x3d7ac9…
07-10 02:55:28	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x615db8…
07-09 13:36:49	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x496bf4…
07-09 05:20:25	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	No	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x6d376f…
07-09 03:23:32	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	No	BUY	17	22¢	$4	0x94cd1f…
07-09 02:39:56	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xb49df9…
07-08 07:09:35	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa4d851…
07-07 16:00:11	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0xb9a340…
07-07 08:27:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	33	29¢	$10	0xeaf56b…
07-07 08:27:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x02503e…
07-07 08:08:56	RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	No	SELL	59	69¢	$41	0xe347a8…
07-06 13:32:44	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0x22af02…
07-04 14:41:47	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x841094…
07-04 14:26:20	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xc09bbf…
07-04 08:07:13	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x15f27d…
07-03 22:25:07	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x3e32f1…
07-03 15:06:34	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0xa1d0d2…
07-03 08:55:28	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xdac6b0…
07-03 02:17:14	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x86d351…
07-03 02:17:14	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x559a7f…
07-03 02:17:13	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x22e6f3…
07-03 02:17:11	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0b47b5…
07-03 02:17:10	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2d3796…
07-02 23:10:17	Blue tsunami in 2026?	No	SELL	7	63¢	$4	0x8e3292…
07-02 15:07:23	Blue wave in 2026?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xd03a28…
07-02 02:38:13	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x7d722c…
07-02 02:32:55	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x1ad2ed…
07-02 02:32:53	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x39e6e0…
07-02 02:32:52	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x18937e…
07-02 02:32:52	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x0ee40c…
07-02 02:32:50	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy booster	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x9a8019…
07-01 13:43:31	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0x6fd5b4…
07-01 10:32:34	btc updown 5m 1782901800	Down	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x24048e…
07-01 10:32:14	btc updown 5m 1782901800	Down	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x6a8ce7…
07-01 10:29:14	btc updown 5m 1782901500	Up	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xa8d2dc…
07-01 10:28:59	btc updown 5m 1782901500	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x6ee86f…
07-01 10:23:52	btc updown 5m 1782901200	Up	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xb2b569…
07-01 10:23:32	btc updown 5m 1782901200	Up	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x3731fe…
07-01 09:43:19	btc updown 5m 1782898800	Up	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xa499e8…
07-01 09:43:07	btc updown 5m 1782898800	Up	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x45345a…
07-01 07:53:04	btc updown 5m 1782892200	Down	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0xc54294…
07-01 07:52:23	btc updown 5m 1782892200	Down	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x7768d0…
07-01 01:34:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9e6115…
07-01 00:34:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x5e7192…
07-01 00:23:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	SELL	1,350	0¢	$7	0x73c001…
07-01 00:21:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	SELL	1,350	0¢	$7	0x648cd3…
07-01 00:00:53	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	SELL	800	1¢	$8	0x4f9077…
06-30 23:59:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	SELL	800	1¢	$8	0x73d273…
06-30 23:55:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0xf25537…
06-30 23:55:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$9	0x9c3492…
06-30 23:53:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xc3e4b9…
06-30 23:38:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	386	6¢	$23	0x26c678…
06-30 23:36:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	23	6¢	$1	0xc69d79…
06-30 23:35:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0xc67e55…
06-30 23:35:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	25	6¢	$1	0x8f3575…
06-30 23:35:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x669d5f…
06-30 23:34:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x8b0883…
06-30 23:32:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x8ac9a3…
06-30 23:30:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0xb05930…
06-30 23:30:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	41	6¢	$2	0xc972e6…
06-30 23:29:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x969166…
06-30 23:27:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	52	16¢	$8	0x6b645b…
06-30 23:27:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x1d49bd…
06-30 23:27:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x995dab…
06-30 23:27:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	108	12¢	$13	0x5b9ec8…
06-30 23:27:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	18	12¢	$2	0x03eca1…
06-30 23:26:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	63	12¢	$8	0x320cb3…
06-30 23:26:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0xa74cac…
06-30 23:19:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	497	17¢	$84	0x41c633…
06-30 23:19:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$1	0x35bcbc…
06-30 22:35:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x94f4b9…
06-30 22:24:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	82	25¢	$20	0x36e3cd…
06-30 22:24:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	18	25¢	$5	0x9b3990…
06-30 22:24:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x105818…
06-30 22:24:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xe55398…
06-30 22:23:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x0e76b3…
06-30 22:22:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0xb4c8c6…
06-30 22:22:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0xbd1cc3…