Scared-Cardboard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

+$2.03K

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

167

Trades

1,864

lifetime

Volume

$84.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$45

Open exposure

$49.8K

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-06 14:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

45% 71% -$232

Other

42% 75% +$297

Tech

10% 67% -$46

Crypto

2% 8% -$32

Sports

0% 80% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+8,942	$8,397	98¢	$8.8K	+$397	09-25 08:44
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+8,012	$7,725	98¢	$7.9K	+$155	10-02 07:03
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	+6,800	$6,671	99¢	$6.7K	+$78	09-25 23:11
russia coup attempt in 2026	No	+6,050	$5,474	98¢	$5.9K	+$445	06-26 09:23
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	No	+4,685	$4,089	97¢	$4.5K	+$448	08-20 18:50
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+3,700	$3,407	92¢	$3.4K	+$16	10-04 14:12
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	+2,600	$2,489	98¢	$2.5K	+$54	10-21 06:10
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	+2,166	$2,121	99¢	$2.1K	+$22	11-06 14:36
Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	+1,859	$1,809	99¢	$1.8K	+$24	10-29 17:44
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	+1,537	$1,135	96¢	$1.5K	+$334	11-01 17:43
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	+1,082	$1,044	99¢	$1.1K	+$28	08-27 10:04
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+1,134	$1,043	92¢	$1.0K	-$6	10-03 04:21
Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	+1,016	$955	96¢	$971	+$16	10-07 19:29
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	No	+607	$565	97¢	$591	+$26	05-26 13:27
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	+356	$325	95¢	$338	+$14	10-07 19:40
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	No	+290	$283	99¢	$287	+$4	09-27 23:44
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-200	-$173	98¢	$-196	-$23	05-15 16:06
NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	+12	$11	98¢	$11	+$0	08-05 08:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	21	$12.4K	13,074	0	+13,074	Yes	+$653	06-30 14:20
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	291	$8.4K	8,942	0	+8,942	open	—	09-25 08:44
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	18	$7.7K	8,012	0	+8,012	open	—	10-02 07:03
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	26	$7.1K	7,000	200	+6,800	open	—	09-25 23:11
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	16	$5.5K	6,050	0	+6,050	open	—	06-26 09:23
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	18	$4.5K	3,355	1,818	+1,537	open	—	11-01 17:43
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?	20	$4.1K	4,685	0	+4,685	open	—	08-20 18:50
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	26	$3.9K	2,010	2,010	+0	open	—	10-15 13:46
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	9	$3.4K	3,700	0	+3,700	open	—	10-04 14:12
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	9	$2.7K	1,381	1,381	+0	No	+$96	10-29 13:43
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	12	$2.5K	2,600	0	+2,600	open	—	10-21 06:10
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	6	$2.1K	2,166	0	+2,166	open	—	11-06 14:36
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	15	$2.0K	0	3,100	-3,100	Yes	-$1,073	08-01 17:36
Trump goes to space in 2026?	7	$1.8K	1,859	0	+1,859	open	—	10-29 17:44
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	6	$1.0K	1,082	0	+1,082	open	—	08-27 10:04
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	7	$1.0K	1,134	0	+1,134	open	—	10-03 04:21
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	5	$1.0K	1,059	0	+1,059	No	+$43	09-08 16:42
Will JC Penney announce bankruptcy before 2027?	3	$1.0K	967	100	+867	open	—	10-19 11:25
Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?	1	$955	1,016	0	+1,016	open	—	10-07 19:29
russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	5	$945	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$55	08-16 21:59
Will SoundHound AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?	1	$637	700	0	+700	open	—	10-07 19:12
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	4	$612	315	315	+0	No	+$12	01-26 12:12
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	47	$602	329	329	+0	No	+$54	10-30 09:00
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?	1	$565	607	0	+607	open	—	05-26 13:27
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	18	$497	281	281	+0	No	+$58	10-28 20:29
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	1	$412	0	420	-420	No	-$8	05-08 19:24
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	149	$369	342	342	+0	No	$0	02-20 18:14
bitcoin up or down february 20 4pm et	149	$337	335	335	+0	Up	-$4	02-20 21:32
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	1	$325	356	0	+356	open	—	10-07 19:40
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	4	$304	156	156	+0	Yes	+$4	01-22 17:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 14:36:03	Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	BUY	546	98¢	$535	0xb81efc…
11-01 17:43:58	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x9f7ed2…
11-01 17:42:12	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	584	94¢	$550	0x39416e…
10-31 14:39:01	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0x4a5f30…
10-30 09:00:07	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	75	100¢	$74	0x2d51cb…
10-30 06:48:34	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xabb3ec…
10-30 06:00:48	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x22441c…
10-30 06:00:12	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xdff2ae…
10-30 06:00:01	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xcfdb11…
10-30 06:00:01	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2d4df1…
10-30 05:59:57	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa3af1a…
10-30 05:59:52	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4d80cf…
10-30 05:56:54	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xada452…
10-30 05:56:52	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5da3d2…
10-30 05:56:51	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xf4bec4…
10-30 05:56:51	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xea85a6…
10-30 05:56:51	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x48b6b0…
10-30 05:56:48	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x558f72…
10-30 05:56:48	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x339c37…
10-30 05:56:46	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xc981bb…
10-30 05:56:42	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x934793…
10-30 05:56:39	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb4ffa0…
10-30 05:56:37	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xcaf687…
10-30 05:56:30	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdaff37…
10-30 05:56:30	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xad8acc…
10-30 05:56:28	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfdd495…
10-30 05:56:24	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xdfbec9…
10-30 05:56:19	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x74c765…
10-30 05:56:13	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x0a54fc…
10-30 05:56:04	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc732e0…
10-30 05:56:04	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5c2eee…
10-30 05:56:04	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x50a85e…
10-30 05:56:03	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xbe2230…
10-30 05:56:03	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5e8811…
10-30 05:56:03	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3040d3…
10-30 05:56:00	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x85eba8…
10-30 05:55:58	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xfad8cc…
10-30 05:55:58	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd0f8dc…
10-30 05:55:58	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x77feda…
10-29 22:08:45	Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	BUY	495	98¢	$484	0x68f7df…
10-29 17:44:40	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	95	96¢	$92	0x18b813…
10-29 17:30:58	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	379	94¢	$356	0x3ab9eb…
10-29 17:17:41	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	264	96¢	$255	0xc375f9…
10-29 17:16:49	Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	BUY	600	97¢	$581	0xc446a2…
10-29 15:22:53	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x98543c…
10-29 13:43:02	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	610	100¢	$608	0x88fe3b…
10-29 13:42:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0xf1936f…
10-28 20:29:59	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xca6643…
10-28 20:29:58	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xcc8c0f…
10-28 01:35:35	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x4206a7…
10-28 01:35:12	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xa93f12…
10-27 15:15:03	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	372	93¢	$345	0xce6e9e…
10-26 19:58:53	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	371	100¢	$370	0x7e285a…
10-26 17:20:02	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x711041…
10-26 01:59:20	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	319	100¢	$318	0x785c5c…
10-24 15:13:30	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xf11b68…
10-24 15:13:30	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x968d44…
10-24 15:13:30	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x441e92…
10-24 15:13:30	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x327f3f…
10-24 12:36:24	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5ae2d0…
10-24 12:36:24	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x261073…
10-23 10:10:59	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 2.0%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x322af0…
10-23 05:34:45	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	439	93¢	$408	0xdcd69d…
10-21 21:15:35	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xc0f1f7…
10-21 21:15:35	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x775740…
10-21 16:55:42	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x237b6b…
10-21 06:10:51	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	485	96¢	$464	0xc13a49…
10-20 16:54:14	Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0xf911ad…
10-19 22:32:44	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	300	96¢	$287	0xe0bb29…
10-19 11:25:21	Will JC Penney announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x29e634…
10-16 15:39:00	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0xff76f9…
10-16 07:14:40	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7ea772…
10-16 07:11:09	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$478	0x34b7a1…
10-15 21:16:33	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	71	96¢	$68	0x7dd90d…
10-15 15:00:40	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdd6fa4…
10-15 14:59:40	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x2cf620…
10-15 13:46:04	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	565	96¢	$542	0x0ef9d9…
10-15 13:20:56	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0xd28663…
10-15 12:43:55	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xd174d0…
10-15 12:43:50	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa7db50…
10-15 12:43:41	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x72d5c7…
10-15 09:11:58	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf1f943…
10-15 08:53:13	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x55129b…
10-15 08:48:41	will jc penney announce bankruptcy before 2027	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x6c31ea…
10-11 12:55:03	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	196	96¢	$187	0x4da3c8…
10-11 12:55:03	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	369	96¢	$353	0x25dcf9…
10-09 08:46:30	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	99	95¢	$95	0xd3cf61…
10-07 19:40:06	Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	No	BUY	356	91¢	$325	0x0a32f5…
10-07 19:29:57	Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	1,016	94¢	$955	0x09699a…
10-07 19:23:36	Will JC Penney announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	967	94¢	$914	0xec3656…
10-07 19:12:01	Will SoundHound AI announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	700	91¢	$637	0x4d9a09…
10-07 13:58:56	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x748b05…
10-07 01:01:50	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	502	95¢	$479	0x6ff800…
10-07 01:01:50	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	96¢	$143	0x003423…
10-04 14:12:22	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	800	90¢	$720	0xe0c330…
10-03 04:21:23	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	384	92¢	$353	0x1116f3…
10-03 04:20:32	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x758132…
10-03 04:20:32	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	600	92¢	$552	0x63f7cf…
10-03 03:34:05	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	744	92¢	$684	0xab33fc…
10-03 03:34:05	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x05b7f1…