Miniature-Orchard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

26.8%

Resolved

Trades

246

lifetime

Volume

$10.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-10

last 06-25 05:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

39% 100% +$7

Other

33% 100% +$0

Sports

28% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes		+0	$0	24¢	$0	$-0	06-07 20:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	3	$1.6K	829	829	+0	open	—	02-10 17:21
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	16	$526	571	571	+0	open	—	06-07 20:38
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	5	$462	328	195	+133	open	—	06-15 03:25
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	10	$384	369	369	+0	No	$-1	04-27 00:54
Will Alberta join the US?	5	$380	199	199	+0	open	—	06-06 23:49
will trump deport 250000 500000 people	4	$378	1,578	1,578	+0	open	—	02-10 23:54
Iran leadership change by June 30?	11	$377	326	326	+0	open	—	06-06 17:04
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	8	$363	257	257	+0	open	—	06-25 05:29
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$330	496	496	+0	open	—	04-25 09:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	3	$297	105	198	-93	open	—	05-22 01:36
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$286	124	236	-112	open	—	05-24 01:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	7	$256	444	444	+0	open	—	05-29 10:22
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	5	$255	329	128	+201	open	—	05-28 20:51
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	10	$247	409	409	+0	No	$-1	04-16 22:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	4	$240	163	262	-99	open	—	06-04 16:12
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	10	$220	357	356	+1	open	—	05-21 12:58
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$205	108	108	+0	open	—	06-17 21:29
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	2	$205	105	105	+0	open	—	05-19 13:05
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	3	$205	110	110	+0	open	—	06-23 01:42
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$203	105	105	+0	open	—	04-23 13:20
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$203	285	285	+0	open	—	04-23 01:28
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	2	$202	102	102	+0	open	—	05-21 08:52
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$201	107	107	+0	open	—	06-13 03:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$189	98	98	+0	open	—	05-17 03:05
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	4	$187	93	182	-89	open	—	06-03 13:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	3	$185	95	95	+0	open	—	06-19 05:23
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$184	94	94	+0	open	—	04-22 20:23
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	4	$184	102	101	+1	open	—	05-20 19:26
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	3	$183	93	93	+0	open	—	05-30 13:04
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	3	$183	103	103	+0	open	—	06-20 13:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 05:29:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xfc6105…
06-25 05:29:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	13	66¢	$9	0x8711d2…
06-25 05:29:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	SELL	115	66¢	$76	0x6db923…
06-25 04:13:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	54	67¢	$36	0x7d1206…
06-25 04:13:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	79	67¢	$53	0x5d8523…
06-24 22:40:16	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0x98ba8b…
06-24 20:21:14	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	91	98¢	$89	0x0625ad…
06-23 09:36:47	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	7	47¢	$3	0xd8850b…
06-23 09:36:46	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	182	47¢	$86	0x448e8c…
06-23 03:58:19	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	58	49¢	$28	0xb39f70…
06-23 03:58:19	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	131	49¢	$64	0xaa32f8…
06-23 01:42:01	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	98	93¢	$91	0xba4e6a…
06-23 01:42:01	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x81ebc5…
06-23 00:03:07	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	110	93¢	$102	0xf3fcc5…
06-21 17:26:17	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	83	7¢	$6	0x9c5a5f…
06-21 16:09:40	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	83	7¢	$6	0x278432…
06-20 13:18:53	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	57	89¢	$51	0xb8a066…
06-20 13:18:53	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	46	89¢	$41	0x5d7b75…
06-20 09:43:19	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	103	89¢	$92	0xd720d9…
06-20 06:52:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	74	75¢	$56	0x98058e…
06-20 06:52:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x63e0b3…
06-20 02:59:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	124	75¢	$93	0xf4c1c5…
06-19 22:16:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	SELL	69	6¢	$4	0xe6c278…
06-19 22:16:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	SELL	72	6¢	$4	0x1ff929…
06-19 20:23:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	BUY	41	6¢	$2	0xc2fde4…
06-19 20:23:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xab2c01…
06-19 05:23:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	95	97¢	$93	0xfaa6e1…
06-19 02:19:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	97¢	$76	0xcbf298…
06-19 02:19:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x6655f1…
06-17 21:29:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x334e8a…
06-17 19:28:46	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	95	95¢	$90	0xf14124…
06-17 19:27:58	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	108	95¢	$103	0x0fa62b…
06-17 01:06:47	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0x063643…
06-17 01:06:02	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x0f6db3…
06-15 03:25:42	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x0a89dc…
06-14 12:03:21	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xfbf3f1…
06-14 12:03:09	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	189	1¢	$2	0x240039…
06-14 10:30:18	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x913341…
06-14 10:30:15	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0xeb17b6…
06-14 10:30:15	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	58	1¢	$1	0x46aa8d…
06-14 10:30:15	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0x397663…
06-14 01:29:07	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x03fe82…
06-13 12:59:46	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	95	96¢	$91	0x1e44e4…
06-13 10:26:13	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	95	95¢	$91	0x0ba530…
06-13 03:50:42	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	107	94¢	$100	0x8273cd…
06-13 02:39:54	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	107	94¢	$100	0x7e0545…
06-12 16:23:55	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	101	2¢	$2	0x587e71…
06-12 15:05:03	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	26	2¢	$0	0xc0c379…
06-12 15:05:03	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	75	2¢	$1	0x538d8e…
06-12 11:53:18	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x12cac2…
06-12 07:59:34	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x7ab120…
06-07 20:38:43	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	35	29¢	$10	0xd044d1…
06-07 20:38:43	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	29¢	$12	0x6e41a3…
06-07 20:38:43	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	29¢	$12	0x569ea7…
06-07 20:37:16	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0xe5c393…
06-07 20:37:15	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	66	29¢	$19	0xeb27d6…
06-07 18:23:25	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	29¢	$14	0x8632bb…
06-07 18:23:25	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	29¢	$15	0x65f040…
06-07 15:46:24	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	331	29¢	$96	0x028563…
06-06 23:49:16	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	103	95¢	$98	0xfbbfa8…
06-06 22:14:27	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	103	95¢	$98	0x16675d…
06-06 17:04:13	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0xac3508…
06-06 17:04:13	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	61	96¢	$59	0x1d8b4b…
06-06 13:38:39	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	93	96¢	$89	0xba60a7…
06-06 12:10:25	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x50c1bd…
06-06 10:39:33	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	31	96¢	$30	0x340480…
06-06 10:39:33	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x1c3c9a…
06-06 07:19:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0xd6e72f…
06-06 07:19:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x7b8563…
06-05 21:18:54	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	114	78¢	$89	0xc9d220…
06-05 18:34:52	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	114	78¢	$89	0xe31942…
06-04 22:33:16	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	110	81¢	$89	0x43c329…
06-04 18:23:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xd913e9…
06-04 18:23:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	92	83¢	$76	0x3872d9…
06-04 16:12:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	25	62¢	$16	0x8e5c0f…
06-04 16:12:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	137	62¢	$85	0x19d41b…
06-04 16:11:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	163	62¢	$101	0x291751…
06-03 20:13:55	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xd08ef4…
06-03 20:13:55	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	86	96¢	$82	0x9e079e…
06-03 17:00:18	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	96	96¢	$92	0x9604ae…
06-03 13:01:13	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xdf1a43…
06-03 13:01:13	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0xd644a9…
06-03 10:41:50	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	93	99¢	$92	0x919b4f…
06-02 09:05:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	69¢	$6	0x08855c…
06-02 09:04:20	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	90	69¢	$62	0x9c3104…
06-02 09:04:20	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	11	69¢	$8	0x51f6b8…
06-02 07:16:48	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	82	69¢	$57	0xd65344…
06-02 07:16:48	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	27	69¢	$19	0xa6c2ea…
06-02 02:54:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xb07ce1…
06-01 01:22:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	7¢	$3	0xa6be06…
06-01 01:22:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	103	7¢	$7	0x45dac9…
06-01 01:20:22	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	140	7¢	$10	0x17563b…
05-31 17:34:59	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	131	70¢	$92	0x819f23…
05-31 13:24:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	86	70¢	$60	0xd8c870…
05-31 13:24:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	45	70¢	$31	0x6d1041…
05-30 13:04:18	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0xade651…
05-30 11:29:08	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xf470c7…
05-30 11:29:08	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	71	98¢	$70	0x7a3ac0…
05-30 03:34:47	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0xc8aa80…
05-30 03:34:47	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0x8651cf…