Reasonable-Lady 0x08b40e…68624e Create alert
bot cold 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L (90d)
-$1.64K
Unrealized P&L
+$36
Hit rate
51.2%
Resolved (90d)
1,450
Trades (90d)
7,479
13,693 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$32.2K
$49.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$706
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-22
last 11-12 06:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 201 days
Categories
Other
81% 31% -$1,589
Politics
8% 39% -$175
Crypto
6% 52% -$56
Sports
3% 46% -$173
Tech
2% 47% -$47
Pop-Culture
0% 38% -$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 409 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher? Yes +116 $106 100¢ $116 +$10 11-12 01:48
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes +324 $84 35¢ $113 +$29 11-12 06:21
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? Yes +148 $78 57¢ $84 +$6 11-06 18:52
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Yes +128 $56 52¢ $67 +$11 11-10 23:52
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +147 $49 36¢ $53 +$4 11-11 14:53
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +156 $25 27¢ $42 +$17 10-24 01:09
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes +156 $79 25¢ $38 -$41 11-06 19:38
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027? Yes +40 $36 88¢ $35 -$1 11-12 03:59
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026? Yes +46 $34 76¢ $35 +$0 11-12 04:55
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? Yes +32 $27 80¢ $26 -$1 11-12 03:26
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? Yes +32 $11 58¢ $19 +$7 11-11 23:23
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +40 $13 39¢ $15 +$2 11-08 21:51
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No +19 $11 51¢ $10 -$1 10-02 19:48
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No +15 $8 44¢ $7 -$1 11-06 17:45
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028? Yes +27 $4 18¢ $5 +$1 11-12 03:35
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +13 $4 37¢ $5 +$1 11-08 15:28
Trump meets with Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 $0 11-10 23:34
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +5 $3 86¢ $4 +$1 09-11 11:40
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +5 $4 85¢ $4 +$0 09-15 13:29
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +8 $4 54¢ $4 +$0 10-18 19:20
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? No +8 $4 47¢ $4 $0 11-06 22:01
Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? Yes +5 $2 52¢ $3 +$1 09-09 11:21
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026 Yes +5 $3 46¢ $2 -$1 10-16 22:51
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes +6 $2 32¢ $2 +$0 10-28 17:34
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? No +25 $9 6¢ $2 -$7 09-22 11:27
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes +5 $1 31¢ $2 +$0 10-31 20:01
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? Yes +5 $1 30¢ $2 +$1 11-11 18:59
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 15, 2026? Yes +23 $4 6¢ $1 -$3 11-10 20:26
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes — +5 $1 24¢ $1 +$0 10-30 09:07
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +5 $2 23¢ $1 -$1 11-06 19:47