Reasonable-Lady — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$117

Unrealized P&L

-$282

Hit rate

27.1%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

14,751 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$572

$49.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$102

29 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 11-01 12:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 194 days

Categories

Other

81% 31% -$1,625

Politics

8% 38% -$28

Crypto

6% 52% -$56

Sports

3% 46% -$173

Tech

2% 47% -$47

Pop-Culture

0% 38% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 409 trades/day

Open positions (29) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+156	$25	14¢	$23	-$2	10-24 01:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	+672	$130	3¢	$18	-$112	10-30 01:08
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	+147	$43	6¢	$10	-$33	10-30 01:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+785	$127	1¢	$8	-$119	10-30 01:09
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	No	+19	$11	38¢	$7	-$3	10-02 19:48
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+8	$4	60¢	$5	+$1	10-18 19:20
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	+5	$4	86¢	$4	+$1	09-26 04:37
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+5	$4	84¢	$4	+$0	09-15 13:29
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	+5	$3	70¢	$4	+$1	09-26 20:24
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+5	$3	70¢	$4	+$0	09-11 11:40
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	+25	$9	14¢	$3	-$6	09-22 11:27
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+5	$2	34¢	$2	+$0	08-29 20:54
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	+5	$3	32¢	$2	-$1	10-16 22:51
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	No	+6	$1	28¢	$2	+$1	09-10 21:22
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+9	$1	16¢	$1	+$0	09-14 06:07
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+9	$1	12¢	$1	+$0	09-21 20:09
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+51	$3	2¢	$1	-$2	09-24 13:47
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+7	$1	15¢	$1	$0	09-25 14:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	+29	$1	3¢	$1	$0	09-08 01:31
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5	$0	11¢	$1	+$0	10-05 23:07
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Yes	+5	$0	6¢	$0	+$0	09-12 23:06
Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+216	$1	0¢	$0	$0	10-10 15:34
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+16	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	09-17 20:31
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Yes	+5	$0	3¢	$0	+$0	09-20 13:15
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	Yes	+25	$0	0¢	$0	$0	10-10 13:31
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	Yes	+20	$0	0¢	$0	$0	09-22 08:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	+10	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	09-02 09:13
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	+5	$0	0¢	$0	+$0	10-08 05:38
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	+0	$7	56¢	$0	-$7	09-25 20:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ballon dor 2026 kylian mbappe or lamine yamal to finish higher	78	$1.7K	1,860	1,859	+0	Mbappé	-$96	10-19 15:37
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	8	$655	370	370	+0	open	—	10-14 12:36
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 14?	61	$601	598	598	+0	Yes	-$357	10-14 20:13
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 21?	120	$403	387	387	+0	Up	-$27	09-21 04:34
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on October 14?	3	$387	202	202	+0	Yes	+$7	10-14 08:06
Gorka Guruzeta: Anytime Goalscorer	3	$374	196	196	+0	No	+$14	09-19 15:15
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	73	$311	185	185	+0	Yes	-$22	09-21 12:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	16	$292	188	188	+0	open	—	10-07 12:01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	2	$261	152	152	+0	No	+$12	10-20 08:39
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	2	$247	131	131	+0	Yes	+$11	10-05 18:12
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?	3	$222	161	161	+0	No	-$22	09-28 05:54
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	23	$217	270	270	+0	Yes	-$3	09-21 23:26
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 6?	14	$209	217	217	+0	Yes	+$31	10-06 06:51
xauusd up or down on september 16 2026	51	$208	260	184	+76	Down	+$4	09-16 18:34
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	7	$196	652	652	-0	open	—	09-26 02:08
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	11	$194	167	167	+0	Yes	+$60	09-14 01:40
Will Tunisia vs. Mali end in a draw?	5	$180	95	95	+0	Yes	+$7	10-01 07:35
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 220 239	8	$171	994	994	+0	No	+$11	03-17 16:12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	3	$171	104	104	+0	No	+$11	10-19 15:54
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 340 359	14	$164	1,167	1,167	+0	No	+$1	03-22 20:57
lol t1 ns 2026 07 27	12	$158	149	149	+0	Nongshim Red Force	+$137	07-27 11:06
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	19	$155	112	112	+0	No	+$0	09-26 17:36
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?	20	$148	276	276	+0	No	-$16	09-19 10:52
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	24	$147	118	103	+14	Yes	-$32	09-15 22:05
Hamza Abdelkarim: Anytime Goalscorer	27	$147	99	99	+0	No	+$1	09-16 21:43
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?	5	$146	95	95	+0	No	-$20	10-02 03:55
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on September 17?	10	$146	82	82	+0	Yes	+$7	09-17 07:29
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 15?	2	$143	91	91	+0	No	+$37	10-15 00:00
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?	71	$143	242	242	+0	Yes	-$9	09-21 05:08
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	12	$142	496	496	+0	No	+$21	04-09 02:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 12:50:03	Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x34730b…
10-31 20:01:12	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x84f1f3…
10-31 18:19:55	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x727a57…
10-31 17:04:54	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3d0447…
10-31 16:10:58	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0xff0545…
10-31 08:36:13	Will Tulsi Gabbard be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x33f3c2…
10-31 03:14:43	Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x137e77…
10-30 21:27:13	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x1354f7…
10-30 13:21:40	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xcc4460…
10-30 09:07:46	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xeca7b2…
10-30 01:19:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	51	29¢	$15	0x113a7b…
10-30 01:10:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xd3db0e…
10-30 01:10:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x004256…
10-30 01:09:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	755	16¢	$122	0x765989…
10-30 01:08:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	37	29¢	$11	0xf01685…
10-30 01:08:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	140	19¢	$27	0x880aae…
10-30 01:08:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	374	19¢	$71	0xcbe627…
10-30 01:08:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x5bea79…
10-30 01:08:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xf04e90…
10-30 01:08:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x5369f4…
10-30 01:08:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	51	29¢	$15	0x90acf8…
10-30 01:08:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x3119e3…
10-29 20:39:31	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0x23d215…
10-29 17:54:58	Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x4f1d8b…
10-29 02:49:52	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xd4d743…
10-28 21:46:44	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	7¢	$1	0x0d71d6…
10-28 21:29:53	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	7¢	$8	0x2af39e…
10-28 21:26:41	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x374a34…
10-28 17:34:53	Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0xc427a8…
10-28 17:07:31	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	142	12¢	$17	0x32c88d…
10-28 17:07:29	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	32	82¢	$26	0x23ac76…
10-28 17:06:43	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	7¢	$9	0xae2d42…
10-28 17:06:31	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	142	46¢	$65	0x976a37…
10-28 11:33:16	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x0e3e7c…
10-27 10:30:11	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x61a505…
10-26 16:52:39	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x4f02d7…
10-26 13:58:36	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xb0bb8c…
10-26 13:51:56	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.75T?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x22558d…
10-26 01:49:35	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x769371…
10-26 01:49:05	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xcbcac5…
10-25 19:35:54	Will Bayern Munich qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x8a54d4…
10-25 11:46:29	Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	78	0¢	$0	0x17f7bc…
10-25 10:53:20	Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xca8d1f…
10-24 15:53:06	Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x40b2e6…
10-24 10:39:09	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x9461c4…
10-24 01:09:38	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0xdecdad…
10-23 19:42:05	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	18¢	$4	0xda4e8a…
10-23 08:21:36	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x4c35b8…
10-23 07:15:39	Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x65858a…
10-23 04:11:54	Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x942bf3…
10-23 00:59:24	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x8337df…
10-23 00:50:56	Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x0812e8…
10-23 00:50:48	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x732ad3…
10-23 00:50:21	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	22	6¢	$1	0x1498d8…
10-23 00:50:12	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	28	16¢	$5	0xe56776…
10-23 00:50:02	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xaf2eb6…
10-23 00:50:00	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0xcea853…
10-22 23:44:44	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	24¢	$7	0x6b7edb…
10-22 23:34:15	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	98¢	$31	0xb1d17a…
10-22 23:29:38	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x692738…
10-22 23:29:38	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x4614ba…
10-22 17:36:47	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	60	23¢	$14	0x7642c9…
10-22 15:22:48	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in October?	No	SELL	22	82¢	$18	0x0f224e…
10-22 14:08:35	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x6593e1…
10-22 13:17:09	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0xffcbed…
10-22 12:19:26	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x301da9…
10-21 23:43:21	Will the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x165e76…
10-21 16:15:17	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	9	71¢	$7	0xb8f314…
10-21 13:42:32	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	75	18¢	$13	0x2969af…
10-21 13:42:30	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0xee99c1…
10-21 05:26:36	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xb1de89…
10-21 01:53:24	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	SELL	38	17¢	$7	0x1134da…
10-21 00:26:05	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xf50d82…
10-20 20:42:50	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 98?	No	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0x60472e…
10-20 20:01:51	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0xc119fa…
10-20 20:01:51	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x8f6bc5…
10-20 20:01:30	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0xc9d01f…
10-20 20:01:30	Will Meta be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	54¢	$1	0x20d938…
10-20 19:50:42	Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	16	6¢	$1	0x380971…
10-20 19:16:02	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x72c314…
10-20 19:15:33	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xc7a1ef…
10-20 19:15:33	Will the Calgary Flames be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xa40d26…
10-20 12:42:00	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	61¢	$23	0xe6f897…
10-20 11:16:17	Will Real Madrid finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	18	10¢	$2	0xa3244e…
10-20 08:39:19	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	152	90¢	$137	0xa60183…
10-20 08:34:28	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	59¢	$21	0x3aa8cb…
10-20 00:13:29	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% in October?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$7	0xb625c4…
10-19 19:42:47	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xace44d…
10-19 17:10:50	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	89	41¢	$36	0x6e0353…
10-19 17:03:08	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	SELL	59	19¢	$11	0xc36edf…
10-19 16:42:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x3b09be…
10-19 16:34:29	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0x3c8897…
10-19 16:25:00	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October?	No	SELL	29	58¢	$17	0x1b692a…
10-19 15:54:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	104	88¢	$91	0xdba8a6…
10-19 15:37:45	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x2cd56d…
10-19 15:36:44	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	697	39¢	$272	0x7cd6ea…
10-19 15:35:23	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	61¢	$2	0x65c68a…
10-19 15:18:00	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	28	39¢	$11	0xcd23aa…
10-19 15:12:09	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Yamal	SELL	15	39¢	$6	0x9d0c70…
10-19 14:59:26	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	87¢	$4	0xdeabca…