Reasonable-Lady 0x08b40e…68624e Create alert
bot 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L (30d)
-$737
Unrealized P&L
-$72
Hit rate
35.9%
Resolved (30d)
145
Trades (30d)
514
14,868 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$5.85K
$50.1K lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$256
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-22
last 11-10 23:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 201 days
Categories
Other
81% 31% -$1,589
Politics
8% 39% -$175
Crypto
6% 52% -$56
Sports
3% 46% -$173
Tech
2% 47% -$47
Pop-Culture
0% 38% -$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 409 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Yes +128 $56 37¢ $47 -$9 11-10 23:52
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? Yes +148 $78 32¢ $47 -$32 11-06 18:52
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +156 $25 27¢ $42 +$17 10-24 01:09
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes +156 $79 24¢ $38 -$41 11-06 19:38
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +40 $13 40¢ $16 +$3 11-08 21:51
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No +19 $11 48¢ $9 -$1 10-02 19:48
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No +15 $8 45¢ $7 -$1 11-06 17:45
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +13 $4 39¢ $5 +$1 11-08 15:28
Trump meets with Kim Jong Un by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 92¢ $5 $0 11-10 23:34
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +5 $3 86¢ $4 +$1 09-11 11:40
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +5 $4 85¢ $4 +$0 09-15 13:29
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +8 $4 54¢ $4 +$0 10-18 19:20
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? No +8 $4 55¢ $4 +$0 11-06 22:01
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 15, 2026? Yes +23 $4 16¢ $4 -$1 11-10 20:26
Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? Yes +5 $2 52¢ $3 +$1 09-09 11:21
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? No +25 $9 10¢ $3 -$7 09-22 11:27
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026 Yes +5 $3 46¢ $2 -$1 10-16 22:51
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026? Yes +6 $2 29¢ $2 +$0 10-28 17:34
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes +5 $1 31¢ $2 +$0 10-31 20:01
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? Yes +5 $2 25¢ $1 -$1 11-06 19:47
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +5 $2 24¢ $1 $0 08-29 20:54
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +9 $1 11¢ $1 $0 09-14 06:07
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +9 $1 8¢ $1 $0 09-21 20:09
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes +10 $0 7¢ $1 +$0 09-21 08:52
Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026? Yes +22 $1 3¢ $1 $0 10-11 16:09
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes +51 $3 1¢ $1 -$2 09-24 13:47
Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes +24 $0 2¢ $1 +$0 11-08 23:04
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Yes +138 $1 0¢ $1 -$1 09-19 10:15
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $0 10¢ $1 +$0 10-05 23:07
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes +29 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 09-08 01:31