Barren-Waterwheel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$557

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

44.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-20

last 09-23 08:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

58% 38% -$549

Politics

42% 0% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	09-23 08:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	2	$972	515	515	+0	open	—	05-24 07:39
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5)	1	$488	513	0	+513	AD Ceuta FC	-$488	05-24 07:48
den mid agf 2026 04 20 spread away 2pt5	1	$377	385	0	+385	FC Midtjylland	+$8	04-20 07:06
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	8	$271	1,745	1,745	+0	No	+$1	08-26 02:45
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	4	$185	1,090	1,090	+0	open	—	07-09 11:18
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	6	$174	995	995	+0	open	—	06-12 06:40
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	4	$135	900	900	+0	open	—	07-17 01:05
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?	4	$127	1,005	1,005	+0	open	—	05-22 08:34
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	3	$124	650	650	+0	Yes	+$0	08-26 03:25
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	4	$106	880	880	+0	open	—	07-11 05:07
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	4	$99	760	760	+0	No	+$0	06-22 11:11
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	4	$89	1,010	1,010	+0	No	-$9	05-19 11:11
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	4	$74	743	743	+0	open	—	06-22 09:26
fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	5	$71	1,010	0	+1,010	Under	-$71	06-12 06:50
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	4	$56	985	985	+0	No	+$0	05-15 09:03
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	2	$15	490	490	+0	No	+$0	05-13 08:43
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	09-23 08:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-23 08:18:01	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x5b5713…
08-26 03:25:37	Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	650	10¢	$62	0x4b92fb…
08-26 02:48:16	Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	315	10¢	$30	0x1e0842…
08-26 02:48:10	Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	335	10¢	$32	0x729f70…
08-26 02:45:31	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	325	8¢	$24	0x8cb850…
08-26 02:45:04	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	340	8¢	$26	0x056b36…
08-26 01:24:09	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	335	7¢	$24	0xbd30e5…
08-26 01:24:04	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	330	7¢	$24	0xa2e319…
07-17 01:05:55	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	445	7¢	$31	0x9b230e…
07-17 01:05:40	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	455	7¢	$32	0x8755bb…
07-16 06:06:13	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	445	8¢	$36	0x5d9968…
07-16 06:05:55	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	455	8¢	$36	0xd290bf…
07-11 05:07:46	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	345	6¢	$21	0x6eb3c4…
07-11 05:07:35	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	SELL	535	6¢	$32	0x038d6d…
07-11 02:17:56	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	445	6¢	$27	0x3379dc…
07-11 02:17:41	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	BUY	435	6¢	$26	0x184318…
07-11 02:14:34	will russia capture oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 2026 20260706174556070	Yes	SELL	535	8¢	$43	0x714784…
07-11 02:14:22	will russia capture oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 2026 20260706174556070	Yes	SELL	545	8¢	$44	0xf79110…
07-11 01:18:53	will russia capture oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 2026 20260706174556070	Yes	BUY	535	8¢	$43	0x598630…
07-11 01:18:35	will russia capture oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 2026 20260706174556070	Yes	BUY	545	8¢	$44	0x0475d9…
07-09 11:18:28	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	550	9¢	$50	0xddb910…
07-09 11:18:14	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	540	9¢	$49	0x26abfb…
07-09 07:39:11	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	540	8¢	$43	0xe48e14…
07-09 07:38:52	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	550	8¢	$44	0xdeeea6…
06-22 11:11:22	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	375	6¢	$24	0x05a850…
06-22 11:10:22	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	385	6¢	$25	0xae9430…
06-22 09:33:05	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	6¢	$25	0xe00b77…
06-22 09:32:46	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	375	6¢	$24	0x33ea95…
06-22 09:26:20	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	Yes	SELL	378	5¢	$19	0x9c0710…
06-22 09:26:07	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	Yes	SELL	365	5¢	$18	0x5293e2…
06-22 08:35:49	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	Yes	BUY	378	5¢	$19	0x1b9ad6…
06-22 08:35:31	Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	Yes	BUY	365	5¢	$18	0xe93019…
06-12 06:50:43	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xd40bf1…
06-12 06:49:58	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	300	7¢	$21	0x4a1895…
06-12 06:49:03	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	110	7¢	$8	0x303b27…
06-12 06:48:30	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xd67742…
06-12 06:48:15	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xd3bc89…
06-12 06:40:21	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0x041a95…
06-12 05:28:22	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$45	0xaffda4…
06-12 05:27:51	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	SELL	450	9¢	$40	0x2c190d…
06-12 05:09:40	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	BUY	470	9¢	$42	0x379b58…
06-12 05:08:34	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x70dbff…
06-12 05:08:12	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	BUY	515	8¢	$41	0xc66985…
05-24 07:48:08	Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5)	FC Andorra	BUY	513	95¢	$488	0xf9bbc7…
05-24 07:39:39	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	515	94¢	$486	0x448961…
05-24 06:58:59	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	515	94¢	$486	0x7d10cb…
05-22 08:34:20	Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	SELL	495	9¢	$43	0xfd2963…
05-22 08:33:47	Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	SELL	510	8¢	$43	0x33a828…
05-22 08:00:40	Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	BUY	510	4¢	$23	0x6e1397…
05-22 07:58:54	Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	BUY	495	3¢	$17	0x075e61…
05-19 11:11:01	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	505	4¢	$20	0x7f4c41…
05-19 11:10:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	505	4¢	$20	0x903f0a…
05-19 09:02:47	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	510	5¢	$24	0x90c82b…
05-19 09:02:08	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$24	0x304bab…
05-15 09:03:56	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	490	3¢	$14	0x375350…
05-15 09:02:46	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	495	3¢	$14	0x30e8af…
05-15 08:07:02	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$14	0xa46c97…
05-15 08:05:41	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	485	3¢	$14	0x7d7bb2…
05-13 08:43:17	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	490	2¢	$7	0xfa3de6…
05-13 08:10:53	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	490	2¢	$7	0x9862b2…
04-20 07:06:42	den mid agf 2026 04 20 spread away 2pt5	FC Midtjylland	BUY	385	98¢	$377	0xd7dd90…