Conventional-Coffee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.81K

Unrealized P&L

+$21

Hit rate

94.4%

Resolved

169

Trades

2,478

lifetime

Volume

$1.25M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$505

Open exposure

$3.30K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-30 00:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 110 days

Categories

Politics

63% 85% -$9,827

Other

36% 85% +$5,887

Crypto

1% 71% +$45

Sports

0% 100% +$88

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	+1,300	$1,208	94¢	$1.2K	+$14	10-29 21:50
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	+900	$873	95¢	$855	-$18	10-29 23:27
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	+800	$738	92¢	$732	-$7	10-29 23:11
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+200	$198	99¢	$197	-$1	10-30 00:27
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+200	$197	98¢	$197	$0	10-29 23:28
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+100	$99	98¢	$98	-$1	10-29 21:09
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+24	-$5	16¢	$4	+$9	10-28 13:28
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+0	-$25	100¢	$0	+$25	10-28 07:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	170	$100.3K	57,099	45,560	+11,539	Yes	+$380	01-28 08:06
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	237	$82.3K	49,863	50,192	-329	Yes	+$1,837	02-02 15:20
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	45	$52.1K	36,157	16,200	+19,957	Yes	+$113	01-03 11:25
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	138	$41.3K	21,301	21,301	+0	Yes	+$167	09-16 09:10
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	7	$39.4K	19,772	19,772	+0	No	+$107	02-14 04:58
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	5	$35.4K	15,000	20,509	-5,509	No	+$94	02-18 03:50
another us government shutdown by february 14	48	$29.2K	14,889	14,863	+26	No	+$77	02-15 02:10
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	24	$28.4K	19,534	11,786	+7,749	No	+$488	03-15 18:10
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	50	$27.7K	13,786	14,386	-600	Yes	-$158	02-02 16:55
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$23.1K	23,427	0	+23,427	No	+$305	02-26 14:29
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	1	$23.1K	23,319	0	+23,319	Yes	+$233	02-28 07:30
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	16	$22.7K	23,122	0	+23,122	No	+$376	02-25 09:07
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	13	$22.3K	22,747	0	+22,747	No	+$398	02-24 13:47
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	1	$21.8K	22,018	0	+22,018	No	+$264	02-22 18:55
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	14	$20.5K	20,685	0	+20,685	No	+$196	02-18 09:15
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	5	$20.2K	20,356	0	+20,356	No	+$122	02-16 12:29
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	13	$20.1K	20,200	0	+20,200	No	+$137	02-10 21:57
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	17	$19.4K	9,730	9,730	+0	Yes	+$49	03-05 07:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	19	$19.0K	15,450	8,000	+7,450	Yes	+$604	10-28 14:09
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	62	$18.6K	8,979	9,682	-703	Yes	+$71	03-04 13:16
will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	89	$18.0K	13,233	5,606	+7,626	No	+$475	01-16 21:01
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	23	$18.0K	13,235	5,000	+8,235	No	+$273	02-20 06:33
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	20	$17.7K	14,861	5,398	+9,463	No	+$1,357	04-01 07:34
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	20	$17.4K	17,985	0	+17,985	No	+$578	02-20 09:11
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	42	$17.3K	12,369	15,560	-3,191	Yes	-$5,409	02-28 19:15
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	23	$17.0K	17,289	0	+17,289	No	+$256	02-23 13:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	56	$16.9K	10,362	7,986	+2,376	No	+$216	01-30 12:05
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	10	$16.6K	8,184	8,584	-400	No	+$42	02-08 14:36
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	36	$15.9K	16,169	0	+16,169	No	+$318	02-08 17:53
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	11	$15.7K	7,647	8,647	-1,000	Usyk	+$574	05-24 07:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 00:27:54	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x04f3ed…
10-29 23:28:18	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xde8e5f…
10-29 23:27:52	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xa67e02…
10-29 23:11:19	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	73	91¢	$66	0xdc7bf0…
10-29 22:58:18	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x5b9f33…
10-29 22:52:45	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$20	0x2222b8…
10-29 22:51:25	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0x054d60…
10-29 22:17:30	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xbca1d6…
10-29 21:50:57	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xf48b48…
10-29 21:09:24	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc519be…
10-29 20:57:31	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	70	95¢	$67	0xd8c60a…
10-29 16:04:23	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x9d6fc3…
10-29 14:43:10	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0x3b18ec…
10-29 11:08:19	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	75	97¢	$73	0xfa4320…
10-29 10:59:43	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	319	93¢	$296	0x10d96b…
10-29 10:03:56	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$3	0xa4d606…
10-29 10:03:55	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	196	95¢	$187	0xd844bb…
10-29 09:48:49	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xa8a4f7…
10-29 09:47:53	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xfef67d…
10-29 04:24:55	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	97¢	$51	0x388516…
10-29 04:21:34	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0xeb14c9…
10-29 04:21:34	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8e50f3…
10-29 03:17:08	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x40fe96…
10-29 02:57:32	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	362	96¢	$346	0x107a46…
10-29 02:20:34	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x69e15d…
10-28 21:45:25	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xa8b527…
10-28 19:46:22	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	400	96¢	$382	0x8d3688…
10-28 15:10:26	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	400	96¢	$383	0x5da069…
10-28 14:09:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x52b6c1…
10-28 13:28:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,000	95¢	$2,844	0xcbcd55…
10-28 13:28:01	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	64¢	$17	0x3da242…
10-28 12:11:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,547	95¢	$1,464	0x253926…
10-28 12:04:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	95¢	$236	0x3fe4f7…
10-28 12:04:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xe31b57…
10-28 08:42:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	762	95¢	$724	0xaee9fd…
10-28 08:33:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0xc55092…
10-28 08:08:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,600	95¢	$1,522	0x479683…
10-28 07:36:11	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	393	100¢	$392	0x12828e…
10-28 07:35:58	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0x21e0f7…
10-28 07:32:52	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0x2d8318…
10-28 05:34:11	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x794c7d…
10-28 05:27:28	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x0c4079…
10-28 04:49:53	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	108	99¢	$106	0x912a92…
10-28 04:48:01	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x4cccf1…
10-27 17:32:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	900	99¢	$889	0xe7615d…
10-26 17:46:38	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	700	72¢	$505	0xa02d7e…
10-25 11:34:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,300	77¢	$1,005	0x7c939b…
10-21 18:59:23	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x862579…
10-21 18:58:08	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x09d02e…
10-21 18:34:08	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x083aee…
10-18 12:33:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x902029…
10-16 09:36:55	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	494	98¢	$484	0xe9031b…
10-15 19:29:35	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	204	98¢	$200	0xde71e6…
10-15 09:07:38	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	37	98¢	$37	0x6565c1…
10-15 07:12:22	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,600	83¢	$1,326	0x77e260…
10-14 23:41:09	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	137	98¢	$134	0x0f46a2…
10-14 12:31:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,911	71¢	$1,357	0x296f59…
10-14 12:31:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	89	71¢	$63	0x56f0a5…
10-14 12:30:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	70¢	$1,400	0x382507…
10-13 18:34:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	80¢	$1,600	0x849f43…
10-13 13:48:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	80¢	$1,600	0x05a699…
10-12 21:49:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	80¢	$1,600	0xbf8724…
10-12 07:42:31	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x5845c6…
10-12 00:31:12	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x10a7a9…
10-11 21:56:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x2cd660…
10-08 16:19:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x5a46aa…
10-07 14:48:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x4e2271…
10-07 11:19:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	600	85¢	$509	0xd75dac…
10-07 09:48:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x7d335d…
10-04 11:28:04	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	167	62¢	$103	0xf61c86…
10-04 11:15:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	62¢	$4	0x2867ab…
10-04 07:54:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xd9b506…
10-04 06:42:52	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	26	62¢	$16	0x0699d1…
10-03 20:51:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x4af680…
10-03 12:59:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x28bcb6…
10-03 06:38:42	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0xfa2c00…
10-01 18:25:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	73¢	$1,460	0x8de7c5…
10-01 18:02:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	73¢	$1,460	0xbcb347…
10-01 16:14:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,022	70¢	$715	0xec0c8c…
10-01 16:06:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	978	70¢	$685	0xe6b57f…
10-01 01:03:38	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x70d8c2…
09-30 21:22:50	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	62	92¢	$58	0x329e0c…
09-30 20:01:44	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x096dd1…
09-30 19:29:41	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31 2026	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xd509c5…
09-26 19:12:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0xe51d3b…
09-26 00:28:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x280514…
09-25 21:46:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x42368a…
09-25 21:25:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x512f0a…
09-25 20:47:56	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by september 30 2026	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xebf726…
09-25 20:32:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$7	0x1e5672…
09-25 20:20:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x5a8e46…
09-25 20:19:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x3558f4…
09-25 17:42:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x0ab94c…
09-25 11:09:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x58f667…
09-25 10:36:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x3cdfd3…
09-25 10:08:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x786a93…
09-25 09:52:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xcfce0f…
09-25 08:52:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xf168c2…
09-25 08:12:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xb40412…
09-25 07:52:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x332d96…