Realized P&L
-$35.6K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.51K
Hit rate
80.8%
Resolved
122
Trades
2,565
lifetime
Volume
$2.62M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.02K
Open exposure
$123.7K
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 22:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 50 days
Categories
Politics
83%
72%
-$48,680
Other
17%
85%
+$15,660
Sports
0%
0%
-$2,581
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk
• peak 27 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | -31,235 | -$28,574 | 98¢ | $-30626 | -$2,052 | 06-27 19:49 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | +23,166 | $21,795 | 100¢ | $23.1K | +$1,290 | 10-12 11:04 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | +21,850 | $18,091 | 88¢ | $19.1K | +$1,028 | 10-23 07:31 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +9,904 | $8,144 | 82¢ | $8.1K | -$72 | 10-12 17:04 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | +7,007 | $6,480 | 90¢ | $6.3K | -$138 | 10-16 09:12 | |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | -5,836 | -$5,197 | 97¢ | $-5646 | -$449 | 08-09 17:44 | |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | No | -5,461 | -$4,352 | 95¢ | $-5196 | -$843 | 07-03 15:35 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | -4,749 | -$4,440 | 97¢ | $-4628 | -$188 | 05-14 02:09 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | -4,494 | -$3,954 | 96¢ | $-4312 | -$357 | 05-09 13:57 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | -3,000 | -$2,820 | 97¢ | $-2919 | -$99 | 05-18 03:48 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,475 | $2,869 | 83¢ | $2.9K | +$15 | 10-17 18:37 | |
| putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027 | No | +3,000 | $2,370 | 92¢ | $2.7K | +$375 | 07-18 07:36 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | +2,446 | $2,167 | 99¢ | $2.4K | +$257 | 10-23 20:16 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | -2,500 | -$2,070 | 94¢ | $-2362 | -$292 | 05-12 11:41 | |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,688 | $1,508 | 96¢ | $1.6K | +$118 | 10-19 22:08 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | +2,000 | $1,260 | 66¢ | $1.3K | +$50 | 10-21 10:01 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -20,000 | -$3,200 | 2¢ | $-390 | +$2,810 | 06-30 07:27 | |
| us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 | No | +0 | -$57 | 88¢ | $0 | +$57 | 07-11 08:17 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 35 | $474.4K | 239,262 | 239,262 | +0 | Yes | +$499 | 04-08 00:46 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 63 | $226.5K | 228,135 | 14,000 | +214,135 | Yes | -$12,224 | 04-08 03:00 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 56 | $182.5K | 75,807 | 109,232 | -33,425 | No | +$2,127 | 01-31 09:33 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 3 | $159.7K | 160,000 | 0 | +160,000 | No | +$320 | 04-30 04:02 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 131 | $140.9K | 130,249 | 28,092 | +102,157 | No | +$2,082 | 04-01 16:24 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 72 | $110.3K | 112,569 | 5,000 | +107,569 | Yes | +$1,956 | 01-31 09:33 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 355 | $86.9K | 133,441 | 144,503 | -11,062 | No | +$608 | 03-31 04:39 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 16 | $67.8K | 68,077 | 0 | +68,077 | Yes | +$290 | 03-04 17:08 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 32 | $60.4K | 60,544 | 1,679 | +58,865 | Yes | +$1,041 | 03-10 13:44 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 45 | $59.2K | 62,500 | 0 | +62,500 | No | +$3,265 | 03-17 01:39 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 71 | $45.8K | 44,443 | 28,857 | +15,586 | Yes | -$5,235 | 02-28 07:27 |
| will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 37 | $39.8K | 40,000 | 0 | +40,000 | Yes | +$240 | 02-08 15:37 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 6 | $36.9K | 3,000 | 54,235 | -51,235 | open | — | 06-30 07:27 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 136 | $35.7K | 44,876 | 44,148 | +728 | Yes | -$2,941 | 04-05 04:22 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 40 | $28.1K | 27,181 | 3,409 | +23,772 | Yes | +$1,161 | 02-28 21:44 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 9 | $26.9K | 27,152 | 0 | +27,152 | No | +$254 | 03-31 15:39 |
| will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831 | 2 | $26.7K | 26,757 | 0 | +26,757 | Yes | +$105 | 02-03 01:33 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 70 | $24.7K | 34,878 | 0 | +34,878 | Yes | -$24,683 | 05-08 18:24 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 18 | $24.5K | 14,143 | 14,143 | +0 | No | +$1,619 | 05-09 12:44 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 60 | $24.4K | 22,429 | 8,500 | +13,929 | No | +$741 | 01-31 13:38 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 18 | $21.8K | 23,166 | 0 | +23,166 | open | — | 10-12 11:04 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 40 | $21.2K | 16,909 | 5,409 | +11,500 | No | +$1,022 | 02-12 06:09 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 27 | $20.7K | 17,600 | 8,921 | +8,679 | No | +$2,189 | 03-02 10:27 |
| will iran strike israel on march 10 | 2 | $20.0K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | Yes | +$0 | 03-17 01:30 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026 | 2 | $19.8K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | No | +$170 | 02-18 05:16 |
| will the us invade iran by march 31 | 29 | $19.5K | 10,475 | 10,475 | +0 | No | +$1,231 | 03-31 14:48 |
| us forces enter iran by march 7 | 37 | $19.5K | 16,563 | 9,192 | +7,372 | No | +$743 | 03-08 02:38 |
| will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026 | 53 | $19.2K | 22,775 | 14,099 | +8,675 | No | -$501 | 01-04 15:55 |
| us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751 | 7 | $18.9K | 19,248 | 0 | +19,248 | No | +$340 | 02-10 01:44 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 | 31 | $18.1K | 21,850 | 0 | +21,850 | open | — | 10-23 07:31 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||